NBA Best Bets for January 31: Take the Over With Big D
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Jason Lake
- January 31, 2025
Top NBA Pick: Over 233 (–110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
So here we were at the ranch getting all geared up to tell you about how overvalued Luka Doncic is to the Dallas Mavericks (26-22 SU, 23-23-2 ATS). They’re 4-3 SU and 4-2-1 ATS in their last seven games, despite missing one of the NBA’s very best players. Classic “square” betting behavior for us to exploit, right?
Well, no. We are seriously considering the Detroit Pistons (23-24 SU, 23-23-1 ATS) for our basketball picks this Friday night’s matchup; the success of their rebuilding project might be a bit overblown after dropping five of their last seven SU and ATS, but there seemed to be enough value there as 1-point home faves on the NBA odds board at BetOnline – until they moved to –1.5 shortly before we went to press. Harrumph.
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Dallas Mavericks vs. Detroit Pistons
Friday, January 31, 2025 – 07:00 PM ET at Little Caesars Arena
Will Luka Doncic Play?
Who knows. Doncic (plus-7.0 BPM at Basketball Reference) has been the Slovenian on the Shelf since December 25, when he strained his left calf in an eventual loss to Minnesota. He was due for re-evaluation one month afterward, but here we are still wondering what the story is – although Doncic has started running individual drills at practice.
Old-school handicappers will tell you that the Mavericks should have the betting value with Doncic out of commission. Casual bettors tend to freak out when star players are injured, putting too much money on the opposition and bending those NBA lines toward the short-handed team.
There is much wisdom here. Yet Dallas went 3-8 SU and 2-9 ATS post-Xmas before things started picking up recently. So what if we put even more Mavericks on the shelf next to Doncic?
- Dereck Lively II (out, ankle)
- Maxi Kleber (out, foot)
- Dwight Powell (day-to-day, hip)
- Dante Exum (day-to-day, wrist)
That’s a lot of meat on the hoof – especially down low, where Lively (plus-4.1 BPM) has been playing at an All-Star level. Powell (plus-2.8 BPM) has also been useful in limited minutes because of his defense; Kleber (minus-3.6 BPM) can’t seem to hit his threes this year (26.5%), but he was holding his own at the other end.
So Why Is Dallas Winning?
They have quite a bit of talent at other positions. Post-pandemic Kyrie Irving (plus-3.5 BPM) can still run a quality offense, Klay Thompson (0.0 BPM) is hitting 39.6% of his threes if not much else, and Quentin Grimes (plus-0.2 BPM) has done even better from downtown at 40.7%.
As for the paint, Daniel Gafford (plus-4.4 BPM) has statistically been Dallas’s second-most valuable player behind Doncic. But the cupboard is bare after that; the Mavs have been somewhat fortunate not to be exposed yet, having upset Oklahoma City twice while both Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein were laid up.
That might not cut it against a Detroit team that’s only missing Jaden Ivey (minus-0.4 BPM) at shooting guard. Yet this remains a somewhat undersized Pistons team with 6-foot-10 Jalen Duren (plus-1.2 BPM) and 6-foot-8 Isaiah Stewart (minus-0.2 BPM) as their top two centers.
Maybe this game won’t be that different for Dallas after all.
The Pick
Really, Friday’s pick should have been a slam-dunk for the Over, which is 7-2 for Dallas since Lively went down, and 5-0 in their last five games. But the sharps once again hoovered up that value early, bumping the total up from 232 at the open to 233 as we go to press.
Downsize your wagers accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.
NBA Pick: Over 233 (–110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
