NBA Best Bets for January 7: Anthony Edwards Is Leading Minnesota
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Rainman M.
- January 7, 2025
Top NBA Pick: Anthony Edwards Over 26.5 Points (-117) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for tonight’s action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Suns vs. Hornets and Timberwolves vs. Pelicans.
For your best bets, I will recommend wagering on the Hornets, Timberwolves, and the Anthony Edwards point total “over.” And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice.
Phoenix Suns vs. Charlotte Hornets
Tuesday, January 07, 2025 – 07:00 PM ET at Spectrum Center
Charlotte’s Offense
On offense, the Hornets rely heavily on ball-screens. In fact, they deploy the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play-type with the NBA’s highest frequency.
The Hornets are most able to lean on this play-type when point guard LaMelo Ball is healthy, which he is. Video footage shows how crafty Ball is with ball-screens. With his keen understanding of space and angles, he uses them to score for himself and to get teammates involved.
Phoenix’s Ball-Screen Defense
Because the Hornets rely more than any other team on ball-screens, it is critical to know whether the Suns are good at defending them.
I like Charlotte tonight because Phoenix’s ball-screen defense is awful. Against the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play-type, Phoenix allows the fifth-most PPP (points per possession) and the sixth-most points per game. Hence, for example, they conceded 126 points to a lowly New Orleans team that, like Charlotte, relies heavily on this play-type.
Phoenix’s Decline
I also like the Hornets because the Suns are in decline. They enter tonight’s game having lost four of their past five games and, more extensively, ten of their last fourteen.
While the Suns still average 112 points per game on the season, they are consistently struggling to approach this figure. In their last seven games, they have scored as many as 112 points one time. During this seven-game span, they failed to exceed 110 points five times.
Their decline accompanies a crisis in identity, which is evident in their starkly altered shot profile. Whereas they used to attempt a lot of threes per game, they are attempting them at a much lower rate now.
Charlotte Will Thrive From Deep
The Hornets will out-pace the Suns from behind the arc. In addition to relying on ball-screens, they like to rely on three-pointers, which they attempt at one of the highest rates.
Phoenix struggles to contest three-point attempts and to run opponents off the three-point line, which explains why the Suns rank 21st at limiting three-point makes.
Given the Suns’ bad close-out game, Charlotte’s collection of shooters will have many great opportunities.
Takeaway
Charlotte’s offense has a great outlook with its reliance on ball-screens and three-pointers.
The Hornets will outscore a Phoenix team that is struggling both to be effective in general and to establish an identity.
NBA Pick: Hornets +4.5 (-110) at BetOnline
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Tuesday, January 07, 2025 – 08:00 PM ET at Smoothie King Center
Outlook for Minnesota’s Offense
The Timberwolves will thrive on offense against a defense that does a poor job of defending the perimeter. They attempt the sixth-most threes, which is smart of them because they feature efficient shooters.
Anthony Edwards is a big reason why they are one of the best shooting teams from behind the arc. But the Timberwolves can also count on other guys, such as Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Donte DiVincenzo, to be efficient.
New Orleans’ Perimeter Defense
New Orleans is easy to score on from behind the arc because its defense is so bad in general.
The Pelicans do an awful job of preventing opposing ball-handlers from driving inside, where these ball-handlers ably exploit the Pelicans’ lack of rim protection.
Anthony Edwards, who characteristically loves to drive to the basket, will thrive inside the arc. However, he and his teammates will also make a lot of threes against a New Orleans team that allows wide-open three-point attempts with the fifth-highest frequency.
Minnesota, led by Edwards, can drive inside, and it can space the floor with three-point shooting centers, such as Naz Reid.
In these ways, the Timberwolves’ three-point shooters will be tough for the Pelicans to guard, because the latter will have to worry about Minnesota’s inside-scoring prowess and because Minnesota’s floor-spacing will mitigate the potential effectivity of New Orlans’ help defense.
New Orleans’ Offense
On offense, the Pelicans can’t keep pace with Minnesota. New Orleans ranks 23 spots behind Minnesota in three-point percentage.
Because the Pelicans are the fifth-least efficient team from behind the arc, they depend heavily on scoring inside. However, the Timberwolves have four-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert patrolling the basket.
Gobert is an elite defender because of his excellent rim protection. Led by him, Minnesota allows the ninth-fewest field goals within five feet of the basket.
Takeaway
Minnesota’s offense will have its way with New Orleans’ defense. The likes of Gobert will ensure that the Pelicans fail to keep pace.
Edwards has scored a combined total of 90 points in his last two games, so we can ride his hot hand in what is a great matchup for him by playing the “over” on his point total.
NBA Pick: Timberwolves -5 (-110) at BetOnline
NBA Pick: Anthony Edwards Over 26.5 Points (-117) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
