NBA Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves 4th Quarter ML (-155) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
What’s this – another quarter line? That’s right; we cashed in last week’s basketball picks with the 1Q Over between the Phoenix Suns and Denver Nuggets, so let’s see if those NBA betting trends hold up for us again this Friday at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Our target this time: the Orlando Magic, who will be playing on zero days of rest when they visit the Minnesota Timberwolves.
This being the Magic (30-36 SU, 29-36-1 ATS, Under 40-26 at press time), my first thought was naturally to hammer the Under. But upon further review, Minnesota (38-29 SU, 31-35-1 ATS, Over 37-30) isn’t the right dance partner for our purposes – even if they’re No. 25 on the NBA pace charts at 98.0 possessions per game, barely ahead of No. 29 Orlando at 96.6 possessions.
Those 4Q NBA lines are another story. Unlike the Suns and Nuggets from last week’s matchup, the Wolves start slow and finish strong; they’re in the red on the 1Q odds for both spread and moneyline, but firmly in the black for the fourth quarter. Let’s see if they can use their rest advantage over Orlando to their… advantage.
And before we jump in, don’t forget to visit our YouTube channel for more NBA betting advice, featuring today’s Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies and Lakers vs. Nuggets games.
Orlando Magic vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Friday, March 14, 2025 – 08:00 PM ET at Target Center
Should I Bet Spread or Moneyline?
As you can see above, we’re going moneyline for our NBA picks. The trends we’re looking at show 39% ROI (Return on Investment) for the 4Q ML on a record of 28-10; compare and contrast to 15% ROI for the 4Q spread at 57-42 ATS across a larger sample.
Friday’s early basketball odds have just hit the board as we go to press, so we don’t even have full-game moneylines yet to quote – but the Timberwolves have already moved from 8-point home faves to –9. This isn’t ideal when we’re not bargain-hunting for a contrarian pick, but maybe that 4Q moneyline will retain some value as one of the less frequent bet types for casual fans.
Either way, bettors are going to be all over Minny for this matchup. The Magic have dropped six of their last seven SU and ATS heading into Thursday’s tilt in Houston, while the Wolves are on a six-game winning streak at 5-1 ATS.
Get those picks in early if you can.
Why Is Minnesota Good All of a Sudden?
Julius Randle is back. Minnesota may have lost a step this offseason when they sent Karl Anthony Towns to the New York Knicks, getting Randle and Donte DiVincenzo as part of the return package. However, Randle (plus-1.1 BPM at Basketball Reference) has played reasonably well when available, and Minnesota’s hot streak began on March 2 when he came off the injured list.
With Randle back, the Wolves have no injured players to report.
Meanwhile, the Magic are still without Mo Wagner (knee) and Jalen Suggs (quad) for the rest of the season. Orlando’s in No Man’s Land at No. 8 in the Eastern Conference – too good and too far ahead to tank, but not nearly good enough without Wagner and Suggs to make a deep playoff run.
The Pick
If it weren’t for the “zero days rest” part of this equation, we might be less inclined to fade the Magic. They’re still a young team with some legs, enough to go 48-31 ATS in the fourth quarter (18% ROI) of their previous 77 games before running into the Rockets. And they won’t have to chase the slowpoke Wolves up and down the court Friday night.
Size your bets accordingly for protection, and may the sphere be with you.
NBA Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves 4th Quarter ML (-155) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
