NBA Best Bets for March 15: Let’s Exploit San Antonio’s Defensive Struggles
-
Rainman M.
- March 15, 2025
Top NBA Pick: Trey Murphy III Over 20.5 Points (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top Sportsbooks have released their betting odds for tonight’s NBA action, and three games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Bulls vs. Rockets, Heat vs. Grizzlies, and Pelicans vs. Spurs.
Chicago Bulls vs. Houston Rockets
Saturday, March 15, 2025 – 08:00 PM ET at Toyota Center
Houston’s Perimeter Defense
This season, Chicago has been heavily reliant on scoring three-pointers, attempting the second-most of them per game.
The Bulls lack guys who score reliably next to the basket. This is especially the case since they lost Ayo Dosunmu for the year — Dosunmu made as many field goals within five feet of the basket as his team’s starting center does.
While the Bulls also like to shoot 5-9 feet away from the basket, Houston does the second-best job at limiting opposing field goal efficiency in this space. So, especially tonight, the Bulls will rely heavily on making threes.
The problem with this reliance is that Houston head coach Ime Udoka has turned this defense into one of the NBA’s best. The Rockets now rank second-best in defensive rating.
Specifically, the Rockets thrive at guarding the perimeter. They allow open three-point attempts with the sixth-lowest frequency and wide-open three-point attempts with the second-lowest frequency. They also allow the second-fewest three-point attempts.
These stats indicate that the Rockets do a great job of contesting three-point attempts and of running opposing would-be shooters off the three-point line. Overall, the Rockets allow the second-fewest three-point makes.
Houston’s Transition Defense
The outlook for Houston’s defense is very positive today also because of its ability to stop transition offenses.
Houston, for example, held Detroit to 107 and 99 points in two respective games. The Rockets limited Chicago to 107 points in a blowout win. Both Chicago and Detroit rank top-three in frequency of transition scoring.
To belabor the point, they held the Raptors to 87 and 110 points in two respective meetings — when the Raptors scored 110 points, they needed a highly unusual 17 three-pointers to get there. Toronto also ranks third in frequency of transition scoring.
While the Rockets have struggled against what is by far the best and most productive transition offense, Memphis, they have otherwise proven eminently reliable against teams that rely heavily on scoring in transition.
Point Totals
Chicago won’t sniff the 110 — or even the 107 — points that it scored at home in a 36-point loss when star Zach LaVine was still a Bull. So, we’ll want Houston to score under 120 points for the “under” to hit.
Observe this key trend: when the Rockets score 130 or more points in a game, they have scored fewer than 120 points in the following game six out of six times.
Very much a defense-first team, the Rockets’ offense reliably falls back to Earth after their offense explodes, as it did in Houston’s last game.
So, I can’t imagine these teams combining for more than 225 points tonight.
NBA Pick: Under 230 (-110) at BetOnline
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Miami Heat
Saturday, March 15, 2025 – 08:00 PM ET at FedExForum
Outlook for Memphis’ Offense
On offense, the Grizzlies have struggled to be efficient in the half-court. They rely heavily — more heavily on every other team, in fact — on scoring in transition.
With speedy guard Ja Morant, they are built for transition basketball. Morant-led Memphis, accordingly, struggles against defenses that excel at limiting transition scoring.
Sacramento allows the fewest points in transition and held Memphis to seven points below its scoring average. Morant himself scored eight points.
Morant likewise struggled to be remotely efficient in two games against the Thunder, with his team scoring 112 and 103, respectively, in those two games against them.
While the Morant point total “under” is tempting today, it is heavily chalked and it might lose simply because of how many shots Morant attempts.
But Miami’s defense has a great outlook against Memphis’ offense as a whole also because the Grizzles like to try to score within five feet of the basket whereas the Heat are one of the top teams at limiting field goals.
The Heat’s success against transition-reliant offenses like Chicago and Detroit, except in those games when their opponent made an absurd number of threes, reinforces the positiveness of their outlook on defense. Especially with its top three-point guy Luke Kennard shooting poorly, having made more than one three in only one March game, one can’t expect Memphis to catch fire from deep.
Miami Offense’s Struggles
The Grizzlies’ offense will have to do a lot of work by itself to threaten the “under” because Miami’s offense is inept.
In regulation, the Heat have failed to reach 110 points in any of their last eight games. They scored 106 points against lowly Washington, for example, and 91 points against Boston.
For Memphis’ defense, former Defensive Player of the Year selection Jaren Jackson Jr. shook his rust off against Cleveland’s elite offense after he was absent for ten days. With him back, Memphis’ defense is more secure in the interior and along the perimeter. The Grizzlies will benefit from his return against what is and has been a soft test.
Miami won’t reach 110 points tonight but neither will Memphis.
NBA Pick: Under 228 (-110) at BetOnline
New Orleans Pelicans vs. San Antonio Spurs
Saturday, March 15, 2025 – 08:30 PM ET at Frost Bank Center
San Antonio’s Deficient Defense
The Spurs’ season as a whole and certainly its interior defense has been dismantled by the injury of star center Victor Wembanyama.
With him gone, the Spurs are helpless against drive-and-kick actions. Opposing offenses are in general able to establish a presence inside in order to kick the ball out to a shooter behind the arc.
With Zion Williamson healthy, the Pelicans will have their way inside. Williamson is an excellent passer, as evident in his assist totals. He will find especially Trey Murphy III for three-point opportunities.
While Murphy III has evolved his offensive game, improving his handles and his one-on-one scoring in the paint, as evident in his highlights against Boston’s stout defensive guard Derrick White, Murphy since his days at Virginia has been known to be a great off-ball shooter. He plays really well off of Zion with the latter’s strong presence inside.
Murphy is one of his team’s best and highest-volume shooters. He’ll take advantage of a Spurs defense that allowed 26 three-point makes in its last game and now ranks 23rd at limiting three-point makes. He’ll also exploit San Antonio’s thinned interior defense with his improved inside scoring ability.
He scored 17 points, in his last game, against what is an elite Orlando defense that excels at guarding the perimeter and at protecting the basket. We only need a few more points from him tonight against what is such a soft test.
NBA Pick: Trey Murphy III Over 20.5 Points (-115) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
