NBA Best Bets for March 16: Hornets-Clippers Battle Will Be Underwhelming
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Rainman M.
- March 16, 2025
Top NBA Pick: Hornets-Clippers Under 221.5 (-110) at BetOnline
The sportsbooks have released their betting odds for tonight’s NBA action.
Three games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: 76ers vs. Mavericks, Hawks vs. Nets, and Hornets vs. Clippers.
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Dallas Mavericks
Sunday, March 16, 2025 – 01:00 PM ET at American Airlines Center
Dallas’ Defense
The spread for this game feels off given the current state of Dallas and its defense. So far in March, the Mavericks are 1-7. All seven of their losses came by at least nine points. Their one win was by four points at San Antonio.
They could only win by four points because their defense gave up so many points despite San Antonio’s beleaguered state. Giving up a lot of points has become a routine for the Mavs. In March, they gave up at least 122 points in all eight of their games.
Given this trend, we would need a massive performance from Dallas’ offense for the Mavericks to cover the spread.
Philadelphia’s Defense
The 76ers have shown more promise on defense than the Mavericks. In their last game, the 76ers held Indiana to 112 points, which is four points below its season average.
This performance indicates a willingness on their part to give effort, which is a serious plus in a game between two teams that know they aren’t going anywhere this season.
This indication of effort plus matchup considerations makes me really like the 76ers and their defense. Specifically, they excel at guarding the mid-range spaces in which Dallas’ offense primarily wants to thrive.
Dallas attempts a relatively high proportion of their shots both 5-9 feet and 10-14 feet from the basket. On defense, the 76ers allow the third-fewest made field goals 5-9 feet from the basket and the fewest made field goals 10-14 feet from the basket.
Takeaway
The Mavericks will need to score a lot to cover the spread because they routinely give up over 120 points per game.
But they will struggle to score because they primarily try to score in the midrange but encounter a Philadelphia defense that excels at guarding the midrange.
NBA Pick: 76ers +6.5 (-115) at BetOnline
Atlanta Hawks vs. Brooklyn Nets
Sunday, March 16, 2025 – 06:00 PM ET at Barclays Center
Assessing Atlanta’s Latest Scoring Outputs
Before its last game, Atlanta had scored 120 or more points in six straight games. So what happened? The Hawks scored 98 points against the Clippers because they want to rely heavily on scoring in transition but were not able to do so against the Clippers.
Atlanta attempts the fifth-highest frequency of shots in transition, so the success of its offense will hinge on the quality of the transition defense that it encounters.
When they struggled to score in their last game, they were facing a Clippers defense that does the tenth-best job at limiting points scored in transition.
Before facing the Clippers, they faced Memphis, Milwaukee, Indiana (twice), Philadelphia, and Charlotte teams that do a much worse job than the Clippers at stopping transition offense.
Brooklyn’s Transition Defense
Clearly, it is decisive to know whether Brooklyn’s transition defense is good or bad.
I like Atlanta’s offense today because the Nets allow the fourth-most points in transition. Because the Hawks face such an ideal test for their offense, expect star guard Trae Young to bounce back from his poor showing against the Clippers.
The Hawks will be more efficient from deep and will, also by other means, return to scoring 120 or more points.
Brooklyn’s Depleted Offense
Offensively, the Nets are in a sad state, but you wouldn’t know it if you only looked at the score of their last game. Most recently, they scored 113 points against Boston.
It is extremely concerning that the Nets needed to make 20 three-pointers to reach this point total. Such a high number of three-pointers is unrealistic to ever expect, so one has to expect the Nets to make way fewer threes today.
When the Nets make fewer threes, then their point total will not succeed in masking the struggles of their interior scoring, which was very inefficient without star scorer Cam Thomas helping them against Boston.
Their interior scoring is only going to get worse when opposing defenses realize that they don’t have to worry about their three-point shooting, which still only ranks 26th in three-point percentage. Injured star Thomas’ absence will hurt the Nets’ offense in every way.
This was a Nets offense that was already struggling to exceed 105 or 110 points. Without their top scorer and his 24 points per game, one can’t expect the Nets to score more than 105 points today.
Takeaway
Atlanta’s offense will be eminently comfortable as it bounces back to thrive in transition.
Conversely, the Nets will struggle to score because they won’t be able to count on another freak performance from behind the arc and because Cam Thomas’ absence really hurts them in general.
I’m seeing a 123-102 scoreline in Atlanta’s favor.
NBA Pick: Hawks -5.5 (-107) at BetOnline
Charlotte Hornets vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Sunday, March 16, 2025 – 07:00 PM ET at Intuit Dome
Los Angeles’ Ball-Screen Defense
It is crucial to know whether the Clippers have a good ball-screen defense because the Hornets rely on the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type with, by a large margin, the second-highest frequency.
The Clippers’ defense has an excellent outlook tonight because it allows the fourth-fewest PPP (points per possession) against this play type. As one would expect given this statistic, the Clippers regularly thrive against lower-caliber offenses that rely heavily on this play type.
For example, the Clippers held a Magic offense that runs this play type with the third-highest frequency to 93 points. Likewise, in three games against a Portland offense that runs this play type with the fourth-highest frequency, the Clippers allowed 106, 105, and 89 points, respectively.
When the Trail Blazers reached 106 points, they needed unusually efficient three-point shooting.
Charlotte’s Defense Will Keep The Game Low-Scoring
The Hornets likewise have a great outlook on defense because they excel at guarding the midrange, which is where the Clippers like to thrive. Los Angeles ranks top-nine in both field goals attempted 5-9 feet from the basket and in field goals attempted 10-14 feet from the basket.
Charlotte ranks top-ten at limiting made field goals in both of these spaces. Accordingly, the Hornets are at their best against offenses that rely extensively on midrange scoring.
For example, they held the Heat to 114, 98, and 102 points in three respective games. Similarly, they held the Mavericks to 105 and 103 points in two respective games.
When the Hornets gave up over 105 points in that one game, the Heat were unusually efficient from deep.
Takeaway
The Clippers primarily want to execute in the midrange but will struggle to do so against Charlotte’s defense.
On offense, the Hornets rely heavily on ball screens, but the Clippers’ ball screen defense will overwhelm them.
With both offenses failing to exceed 105 points in this matchup, “under” is the play.
NBA Pick: Under 221.5 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
