NBA Best Bets for March 20: The Warriors Aren’t Taking Prisoners Tonight
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Rainman M.
- March 20, 2025
Top NBA Pick: Warriors -14 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for tonight’s action.
Three games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Nets vs. Pacers, Knicks vs. Hornets, and Raptors vs. Warriors.
For your best bets, I will recommend investing in the Nets-Pacers “under,” Knicks-Hornets “over,” and Warriors.
Brooklyn Nets vs. Indiana Pacers
Thursday, March 20, 2025 – 07:00 PM EDT at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Indiana’s Offense
The Pacers have a strongly ball-screen-oriented offense. They run the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type with the eighth-highest frequency.
Point guard Tyrese Haliburton is a key component of this offense.
Haliburton can sometimes disappear a bit as a scorer, although he does average close to 20 points per game.
His best asset is certainly his facilitating. He ranks fourth in assists per game.
Haliburton’s ability to contribute to his team’s offense in this game is uncertain, however. He missed his second straight game yesterday due to back soreness.
With or without Haliburton, Indiana relies heavily on this same play type. Guards like Andrew Nembhard and T.J. McConnell are two other examples of Pacers players who run this play type frequently.
Brooklyn’s Ball-Screen DefenseÂ
If Haliburton plays, his ability to be effective via ball-screens will be limited by Brooklyn’s excellent ball-screen defense.
To give an example, an otherwise awful Utah defense that allows the second-fewest points per game via the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type was able to hold Haliburton to point and assist totals below his season average.
Brooklyn allows the fewest points to the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type.
The Nets thus match up extremely well not only against Haliburton but also against Indiana’s entire offense.
While Indiana’s dangerous forward Pascal Siakam does not rely on scoring via this play type, the Nets’ defense has a good track record against him, holding him below his average per-game point total in both meetings between these teams so far.
Indiana’s Perimeter DefenseÂ
Indiana’s defense will keep this game low-scoring largely because of its ability to guard the three-point line.
Of course, the Pacers with shot-blocker Myles Turner can also guard the rim. This is an easy task against a Brooklyn offense that is one of the worst at scoring around the basket.
The Nets, out of necessity, primarily want to shoot threes. They attempt the tenth-most threes per game, relying on them even with Cam Thomas hurt.
Indiana ranks eighth at limiting wide-open three-point attempts and seventh at limiting three-point attempts overall. The Pacers clearly value guarding the perimeter, excelling at both contesting and preventing three-point attempts.
Overall, they allow the fourth-fewest three-point makes.
Cameron Johnson, who is Brooklyn’s second-best scorer after Thomas largely due to his three-point shooting, will be rested tonight, dimming Brooklyn’s hopes on offense even further.
Takeaway
Indiana will struggle to score because of the Nets’ ball-screen defense. The Pacers’ perimeter defense will likewise help keep this game low-scoring.
NBA Pick: Nets-Pacers Under 227 (-115) at BetOnline
New York Knicks vs. Charlotte Hornets
Thursday, March 20, 2025 – 07:00 PM EDT at Spectrum Center
Charlotte’s OffenseÂ
With Miles Bridges slated to return, the Hornets’ offense is in business again.
Bridges has been hot this month, averaging 26.9 points per game.
LaMelo Ball is likewise crucial for Charlotte’s offense.
Led primarily by Ball, the Hornets run the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type with the second-highest frequency.
Their outlook is great against a New York defense that allows the most points against this play type.
New York’s Still Potent Offense
The point total for this game is so low because the Knicks miss their star point guard.
But there remain occasions on which they’ve been able to score a lot of points.
For example, they didn’t need Brunson to score 133 points against Sacramento.
They also didn’t need him to score 116 points against Miami.
In both games, they were able to rely on their impressive mixture of three-point shooters — guys like OG Anunoby, Miles McBride, and Josh Hart, who step up and feast on weak perimeter defenses.
Charlotte, like the Kings especially, has a weak perimeter defense: the Hornets rank 21st at limiting opposing three-point makes.
They’re allowing about 130 points per game in their last three games largely because opponents — they faced the Spurs, Clippers, and Hawks — are performing tremendously well from behind the arc and better than what they normally do from deep.
Takeaway
The point total is way too low given what Charlotte’s defense has looked like especially lately.
While the Hornets’ poor perimeter defense will enable New York to attain a high point total, Charlotte’s offense will also find great success via its ball-screen attack.
NBA Pick: Knicks-Hornets Over 222 (-110) at BetOnline
Toronto Raptors vs. Golden State Warriors
Thursday, March 20, 2025 – 10:00 PM EDT at Chase Center
Toronto Will Struggle to ScoreÂ
Toronto’s offense lacks talent with two starters, Gradey Dick and RJ Barrett, sidelined.
The Raptors anyhow suffer for being one-dimensional. They can’t shoot threes, ranking 22nd in three-point percentage.
They will also struggle to score at the basket. This is what they primarily want to do — Toronto attempts the third-most field goals per game within five feet of the basket.
Golden State’s defense is characteristically dedicated to protecting the space nearest the basket. The Warriors allow the fewest field goals within five feet of the basket.
Lots of Three-Pointers for Golden State
On offense, the Warriors led by sharpshooter Steph Curry as well as efficient shooters like Moses Moody and Buddy Hield primarily want to shoot threes.
They attempt the third-most three-pointers per game.
Their outlook is great against a Toronto defense that on the season allows the eighth-highest frequency of open three-point attempts and is struggling especially lately to guard the perimeter.
Toronto’s latest opponents, even Utah with its poor group of shooters, are all thriving from deep.
This is a game in which Golden State’s offense will explode for a high point total.
Takeaway
Toronto lacks the firepower to keep pace with Golden State, whose shooting prowess and rim protection will secure a massive victory.
NBA Pick: Warriors -14 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
