NBA Pick: Raptors -3 (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The Toronto Raptors can’t even win for losing. Despite resting their top starters on a rotational basis, and filling those minutes with players from the very end of the bench, the Raptors (26-47 SU, 44-28-1 ATS) remain one of the most profitable teams in the NBA, going 8-5 SU and 10-3 ATS in the month of March. Don’t they know how to drive a tank up North?
Indeed they do. But there are other tanks blocking Toronto’s route to the bottom of the league standings; their recent run has come at the “expense” of even worse teams like the Brooklyn Nets, who let the faux Raptors (+2.5 away) beat them 116-86 Wednesday night.
Now the Raps have to deal with the Charlotte Hornets (18-54 SU, 35-35-2 ATS), a team that’s given them fits in the past. Charlotte is third on the draft lottery ladder after losing five of their last six SU and ATS, and as you can see above, we’re fading the Hornets and putting Toronto in our NBA picks at the top-rated sportsbooks. It’s a moral imperative.
Charlotte Hornets vs. Toronto Raptors
Friday, March 28, 2025 – 07:30 PM EDT at Scotiabank Arena
Why Can’t Toronto Just Lose?
They’re trying, really – “they” being the front office. The players themselves are encouraged to keep competing, but instead of Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett and Jakob Poeltl, we’re seeing a whole lot of A.J. Lawson, Jamison Battle, Ja’Kobe Walter and Orlando Robinson.
Alas, even these end-of-bench guys are better than most of the teams Toronto has faced lately – and those teams are also leaning on 10-day and two-way players. Look at Robinson, for example: 23 points, 12 rebounds and three assists in just 24 minutes against Brooklyn.
Robinson (minus-3.1 OBPM at Basketball Reference) isn’t going to put up those kind of numbers every night, even against softer teams like the Nets, but he is going to provide league-average defense (minus-0.2 DBPM), which is excellent value from someone picked up off the scrap heap in January.
Battle (minus-0.4 OBPM) and Walter (minus-0.9 DBPM) have also been useful role players for Toronto in their rookie years. Lawson (minus-4.0 BPM) has been less consistent at both ends, but he did score 32 points against Washington on March 10, and another 28 against Philadelphia the next game – both easy wins for the Raptors.
Do the Hornets Have Toronto’s Number?
It might seem that way sometimes. Charlotte won 138-133 the last time they met on October 30, but the Raptors cashed in as 6-point road dogs, improving to 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS against the Hornets since the start of the 2022-23 campaign.
That October game happened back when Charlotte was relatively healthy compared to the Raps, who only got themselves in this mess because of all those early-season injuries. Barnes and Quickley both missed their first matchup; they’re available now, although Gradey Dick (knee) is day-to-day, and might not get the chance to dump another 30 points on the Hornets like he did in Game 1.
Meanwhile, Charlotte has three players listed out for the season:
- Tre Mann (back)
- Brandon Miller (wrist)
- Grant Williams (knee)
Miller didn’t play that first game against Toronto, but Mann led the team with 27 points off the bench, and Williams chipped in 17 on 5-of-6 shooting. Nick Richards (24 points, 14 rebounds) also won’t be there after he was sent to Phoenix at the trade deadline.
The Pick
If their recent history holds up, the Raptors are likely to win again this Friday despite themselves. It’s impossible to say at this point who’s going to suit up for each team, or how many minutes they might play, but you know the drill: Wait for the morning shoot-around, then bet accordingly – and may the sphere be with you.
NBA Pick: Raptors -3 (-105) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
