NBA Best Bets for March 29: Anthony Davis’ Defense Is So Valuable
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Rainman M.
- March 29, 2025
Top NBA Pick: Mavericks/Bulls Under 237 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for today’s action. Three games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Kings vs. Magic, Heat vs. 76ers, and Mavericks vs. Bulls.
For your best bets, I will recommend wagering on the Magic, Heat, and Mavericks-Bulls “under.”
Sacramento Kings vs. Orlando Magic
Saturday, March 29, 2025 – 05:00 PM EDT at Kia Center
Key Trend
Orlando will win this game because it has one of the NBA’s very best defenses.
Meanwhile, Sacramento has proven every time that it cannot beat a team like Orlando. Against defenses that rank top-three in defensive rating, Sacramento is 0-7.
Orlando’s Best Games
Sacramento is, on the other hand, the sort of team that Orlando reliably beats. The Kings have, objectively, a bad defense. They rank 21st in defensive rating.
Orlando reliably beats teams with bad defenses because the only question mark for Orlando is its offense. The Magic don’t have to worry about scoring against bad defenses. Hence, they are undefeated against teams like Brooklyn and New Orleans. When they played the Kings in February, they won by 19 in Sacramento.
Important Tendency
Orlando’s offense is in a great bounce-back spot. The Magic offense ranks poorly because it sometimes suffers clunkers. But they reliably score over 110 points in games that follow one in which they failed to reach 100.
When they scored 84 in Houston, for example, they scored 113 points in their following game in New Orleans. They likewise scored 115 against Golden State — even though the Warriors own the seventh-ranked defense — after scoring 82 against Cleveland.
Takeaway
Orlando’s offense will bounce back against a bad defense while its own defense will benefit from its top-level quality.
NBA Pick: Magic +1 (-110) at BetOnline
Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Saturday, March 29, 2025 – 07:30 PM EDT at Wells Fargo Center
Miami’s Strong Form
The Heat enter tonight’s game on a three-game win streak. They had endured a ridiculous losing streak, and now they can’t lose.
Their victims have even included Golden State. During their win streak, they beat:
- The Hornets by 17.
- The Warriors by 26.
- The Hawks by 10.
Good Matchup
Miami is shooting well and scoring plenty. Its defense, moreover, matches up well against the 76ers. Miami is most vulnerable to giving up three-pointers, but the 76ers are one of the worst shooting teams, ranking 25th in three-point percentage.
With their star center and star point guard both injured, Philadelphia lacks the inside scoring talent to tackle what is the strength of Miami’s defense, its two-point defense.
Philadelphia’s Struggles
The 76ers have lost six in a row. Most recently, they lost to pathetic Washington by 5 and to New Orleans by 13.
Given their struggles, asking any competent team to beat them by double digits seems very modest. Miami’s strong form and matchup advantage only justify added confidence in the Heat.
Parlay Bonus
Since February 5, the 76ers are 3-20. They beat Golden State, albeit in a close game, when they anomalously made 19 three-pointers. Otherwise, they beat lowly Utah and scraped by a Dallas team that missed both Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis.
With Miami winning game after game, the Heat make for an excellent money-line parlay candidate. We can parlay them with the Magic for extra profit.
NBA Pick: Heat -7 (-110) at BetOnline
March 29 Parlay
- Heat ML (-280)
- Magic ML (-109)
NBA Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+160) at BetOnline
Dallas Mavericks vs. Chicago Bulls
Saturday, March 29, 2025 – 08:00 PM EDT at United Center
The High Total
The posted total for this game is very high. If you look at Dallas’ games, then it is easy to see why a high total makes sense.
However, personnel health makes a huge difference here. The Mavericks have given up so many points so many times because they played so many games without star interior defender Anthony Davis.
With Davis, though, the Mavericks are completely different. The annual Defensive Player of the Year candidate instantly makes Dallas’ defense a great unit. In his three games as a Maverick, Dallas has allowed:
- 105 points to Houston.
- 101 points to Brooklyn.
- 92 points to Orlando.
The best-scoring defense allows 106 points per game, and Dallas with Davis is even better than that.
Chicago’s Transition Defense
The Mavericks lack scoring talent with Luka Doncic gone and fellow star guard Kyrie Irving hurt. They also suffer a matchup disadvantage in this game. This is because they rely heavily on scoring in transition.
As a team that attempts baskets in transition with the sixth-highest frequency, their outlook is negative against a Chicago defense that allows the sixth-fewest points in transition.
Takeaway
Davis’ health and matchup details make it clear that the total is way too high for this game.
NBA Pick: Mavericks/Bulls Under 237 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
