NBA Best Bets for March 3: The Rockets Will Make a Statement Tonight
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Spread Astaire
- March 3, 2025
Top NBA Pick: Houston Rockets +9.5 (-108) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
The NBA season is in its home stretch and many teams are battling for playoff position in high-profile matchups. We will take a look at two of these games here today. The first will be the 5th place Houston Rockets taking on the first place Oklahoma City Thunder.
Can the Rockets make a statement against the West’s best team? Also, the Sacramento Kings and Dallas Mavericks meet with the potential to move into sixth place in the Western Conference.
Which team will emerge victorious and put themselves with a crucial tiebreaker advantage that could decide the playoff seeding? When looking at these two pivotal games, who should you back to make winning NBA picks?
Let’s break down the latest NBA betting odds from top sportsbooks before locking in your picks! And for more value picks, check out our YouTube channel, featuring Hawks vs. Grizzlies and Rockets vs. Thunder.
Houston Rockets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Monday, March 03, 2025 – 08:00 PM ET at Paycom Center
Can the Rockets Bounce Back Against the West’s Best?
The Houston Rockets will have the rest advantage in this game as the Oklahoma City Thunder defeated the San Antonio Spurs blank yesterday. The Rockets most recent game was a 113-103 loss at home to the Sacramento Kings on Saturday night.
The Rockets will be looking to bounce back. After moving all the way to second place in the Western Conference, the Rockets have regressed as of late and are only 5-5 over the last 10.
In contrast, the Oklahoma City Thunder are 8-2 in their last 10 games. The Thunder have a much stronger point differential this year. The Thunder are +12.7 while the Rockets are +3.8. Of the Thunders’ 11 losses this season, 10 of them are in conference. The Thunder are 25-4 at home this season.
The Thunder often cover at home as well. There are 21-9 ATS as a home favorite. The Rockets are 12-7 this season ATS as an underdog, and 9-6 as a road underdog.
The Pick
This total has moved 7.5 points up since the opener and I agree with that movement. However, at the current price, we cannot take advantage of the mispriced opening number.
I like the Rockets to keep this one close. The rest advantage will be key and the Rockets defense will be able to slow down a tired Thunder team. Give me the Houston Rockets +9.5.
NBA Pick: Houston Rockets +9.5 (-108) at Bookmaker
Sacramento Kings vs. Dallas Mavericks
Monday, March 03, 2025 – 08:30 PM ET at American Airlines Center
Kings Heating Up, But Can They Handle the Mavs?
The Kings are coming off the aforementioned victory over the Houston Rockets and seem to be playing well at the right time. The Kings are 6-4 over the last 10 and on a 3-game winning streak. These teams are close in the standings with the Kings having a record of 31-28 and the Mavericks having a record of 32-29. So, as it turns out, this game could be the difference in playoff seeding at the end of the season.
One problem the Kings have is the injury to Domantas Sabonis suffered during the victory over the Rockets. Sabonis has been the King’s top player this season. Sabonis is averaging 14.1 rebounds per game which is number one in the NBA.
Sabonis also averages 19.5 points per game on an extremely efficient 59.6 field goal percentage. Needless to say, Sabonis out of the lineup would be a big loss for the Kings in this crucial game. Sabonis is listed as a game time decision.
Mavs Navigating the Post-Doncic Era
The Mavericks have been in the headlines due to their shocking trade of Luka Doncic but we will no longer re-litigate the craziness of that trade. In the trade, the Mavericks acquired Anthony Davis, but he will be out until at least March 7th with an injury. The Mavericks are hoping to tread water and maintain their status until Davis returns.
The Mavericks are 6-4 in their last 10 but have a one game losing streak. The Kings have a point differential of +1.5 this season and the Mavericks have a point differential of +1.6 so most statistical models will make this a close game between relatively even teams.
The Mavericks still have a star guard in Kyrie Irving who scored 31 points in their most recent game, a loss to the Bucks. In that game, the Mavericks were victims of poor three-point variance. They shot only 11-40, (28%), from 3-point range.
The Mavericks still have a nice starting roster including Max Christie and Klay Thompson, but due to the injuries, their depth has definitely been hurt. Still, they have players like Jaden Hardy and Spencer Dinwiddie who can light it up off the bench.
So while the Mavericks do have injuries to key players, they are still a formidable opponent, and one that the Kings will not take lightly. The Mavericks will need to stop the Kings high scoring attack.
The Pick
The Mavericks gave up 132 points to the Bucks in the loss, and will need a better effort defensively if they’re going to get the win tonight. However, being back at home, this is a good bounce back spot for the Dallas Mavericks.
Sacramento is 13-16 ATS on the road and Dallas is 18-13 ATS at home. Although the Kings come into this game playing well, the home court advantage will be the difference here, as Dallas can expect more contributions from the role players.
Dallas will do what it takes to get it done and win this matchup that is so crucial for playoff position. Take the Dallas Mavericks ML.
NBA Pick: Dallas Mavericks ML (-103) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
