NBA Best Bets for March 4: Don’t Think Too Quickley Tonight
-
Rainman M.
- March 4, 2025
Top sportsbooks have released their latest betting odds for tonight’s NBA action, setting the stage for an exciting slate of matchups and prime betting opportunities.
Two games, in particular, interest me and are worth investing in: Raptors vs. Magic and Bucks vs. Hawks.
For your best bets, I recommend parlaying Orlando and Milwaukee on the money-line and wagering on Immanuel Quickley’s point total “under.”
Check out our YouTube channel for more value picks, featuring 76ers vs. Timberwolves and Clippers vs. Suns.
Toronto Raptors vs. Orlando Magic
Tuesday, March 04, 2025 – 07:00 PM ET at Kia Center
Orlando’s Ball-Screen Offense
The Magic offense relies heavily on pick-and-rolls set for the ball-handler where the ball-handler finishes.
Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are the main beneficiaries of this play type. They are also Orlando’s two leading scorers.
Overall, the Magic run the pick-and-roll for the ball handler play type with the third-highest frequency.
Their outlook is strong against a Toronto defense that allows the ninth-most points against this play type.
Orlando’s Defense
One must like the Magic when one likes their offense to do well. Orlando has, as suggested by its defensive rating, one of the best defenses.
While its perimeter defense is its strength, it is also solid in the interior. The Magic concede the sixth-fewest points per game within five feet of the basket.
They match up well against a Toronto offense that attempts the third-most field goals per game within five feet of the basket. Toronto does an awful job of making threes, especially on the road, and depends accordingly on its ability to score at the basket where Orlando’s rim protection will remain stout tonight.
Orlando’s Situational Advantage
The Raptors have allowed over 120 points in three of their last four games that directly followed a loss.
In the one exception, Boston victoriously coasted in the second-half to a 111-point output.
They beat Orlando on Sunday and now get to face the same team again.
Orlando will be looking for revenge at home where they have done a really good job of buckling down after disappointing losses by easily beating bad opponents like Charlotte and Washington but also by defeating stronger ones like Detroit.
Prop Bet
In addition to liking Orlando, I like Toronto guard Immanuel Quickley to struggle to score.
Opposing guards produced mixed results against Orlando’s defense.
In the penultimate meeting between these teams, Quickley converted 23.5 percent of his field goal attempts and mustered all of eleven points.
On Sunday, he amassed 24 points, which is why his point total “over” is a popular bet tonight.
In Sunday’s game, fellow guard Gradey Dick was the one to struggle.
Because Quickley was so poor in that penultimate meeting, the Magic gave Dick the stronger defensive matchup in their most recent rematch.
Why Quickley Faces a Tough Night
I don’t simply think that Quickley will draw the tougher matchup tonight because he did so well against in the last meeting, which by itself will motivate Orlando’s defense to focus more strongly on limiting his point production.
It is certain that Quickley will draw the tougher defensive matchup tonight because there is no other option for Orlando to focus on stopping Dick tonight. Dick has been ruled “out” for tonight’s game with a knee injury.
With Dick out, Quickley will encounter the best that Orlando’s defense has to offer against guards, with the result being that he will struggle to score like he did in the penultimate meeting and like Dick did in the most recent meeting.
Toronto’s deficient guard play tonight also reinforces my point that Orlando belongs in your money-line parlay.
NBA Pick: Immanuel Quickley Under 17.5 Points (-105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Parlay Leg 1: Magic ML (-260) at BetOnline
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Atlanta Hawks
Tuesday, March 04, 2025 – 07:30 PM ET at State Farm Arena
Milwaukee’s Rim Protection
The Bucks boast strong rim protection in the form of two-time All-Defensive Team selection Brook Lopez and annual Defensive Player of the Year Giannis who is known as an elite help-side defender.
When these teams last played, Atlanta won by five partly because the Hawks performed a bit beyond themselves from behind the arc despite De’Andre Hunter no longer being a Hawk. But Atlanta won largely because the Bucks missed in the way in which Giannis shores up their interior.
The Hawks primarily want to attack the basket and attempt the fourth-most field goals within five feet of the basket. They will lose tonight as they score significantly fewer points than they did in the last meeting between these teams.
Outlook for Milwaukee’s Offense
Giannis Antetokounmpo is also an elite scorer with 30.9 points per game.
He’ll help Milwaukee’s offense thrive against an Atlanta defense that has allowed 130 points or more in each of its last three games and has played especially poorly on defense after a win unless they faced anemic offenses far below Milwaukee’s standard.
The Bucks will win tonight because they’ll have a much easier time scoring than Atlanta.
If the money-line moves in either favored team’s favor and the odds become unattractive, you can just add the heavily favored Cavs or Timberwolves who both have soft opponents tonight.
Parlay Leg 2: Bucks ML (-225) at BetOnline
The Parlay
- Magic ML (-260)
- Bucks ML (-225)
NBA Pick: Two-Leg Parlay (-100) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
