Top NBA Pick: Pelicans +4.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for tonight’s action. The latest games, Rockets-Pelicans and Knicks-Lakers, interest me as worth investing in.
For your best bets, I will recommend investing in the Pelicans, Knicks, and Knicks-Lakers “under.” And check out our YouTube channel for more value picks, featuring the 76ers vs. Celtics and Rockets vs. Pelicans games.
Houston Rockets vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Thursday, March 06, 2025 – 08:00 PM ET at Smoothie King Center
New Orleans’ Offensive Focus
On offense, the Pelicans have intensified their endeavor to score at the basket. Since the start of February, they have been attempting the second-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Physical and athletic freak Zion Williamson is central to their rim-attacking endeavors. Since February began, he has attempted more field goals than any other NBA player within five feet of the basket and is converting a solid 72.9 percent of them.
Trey Murphy is another example of a strong rim-attacking force for the Pelicans, although he is more versatile than Zion and will pull up for three-point attempts and use the pressure that he creates by attacking the basket to pass to open teammates.
Houston’s Defensive Weakness
This new Pelicans offense that focuses on attacking the basket matches up well against Houston’s defense, whose weakness is protecting the basket.
You’re probably wondering how anybody could talk badly about a Houston defense that ranks fourth in defensive rating, but the Rockets do not rank so highly in this category because of their rim protection. Rather, they rank this highly because of their perimeter defense.
However, attempting threes is not a significant part of New Orleans’ offensive game, so the quality of Houston’s perimeter defense will be irrelevant tonight. The Rockets do a poor job of protecting the basket, as they allow many field goals and a high field goal percentage within five feet.
Center Alperen Sengün, who for good reason has never been known for his defense, is a major culprit here.
No Defense, No Chance
It is impossible to like Houston when you don’t like its defense to do well.
The Rockets have become the least efficient team within five feet of the basket, and they show signs of getting even worse as they continue to be one of the least efficient three-point shooting teams. They’ve lost by at least nine points in each of their last three games, largely because their defense has not been remotely good enough, as it has allowed:
- 113 points to the Kings.
- 137 points to the Thunder.
- 115 points to the Pacers.
Pelicans at Home
The Pelicans make for a great underdog at home, where, in contrast to Houston’s ongoing three-game losing streak, they have won three straight games. They also recently almost beat the defending champs, Boston, at home.
Their offense has been stepping up, averaging over 120 points in its last four games, and will make it too difficult for Houston to keep pace.
The Rockets need shooting talent and inside scoring talent, but they are missing starting guard Fred VanVleet, who has already been ruled out for tonight’s contest.
NBA Pick: Pelicans +4.5 (-110) at BetOnline
New York Knicks vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Thursday, March 06, 2025 – 10:00 PM ET at Crypto.com Arena
New York’s Offensive Focus
The Knicks, like the Pelicans, have shifted their offensive focus during the course of the season: New York is now attempting the fourth-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Center Karl-Anthony Towns and wing Josh Hart are New York’s two likeliest players to attempt to score in this space. For some time, Hart looked like he was turning from a slasher to a catch-and-shoot guy, but now he is primarily a slasher again. His subpar three-point efficiency makes sense of his shot profile.
Los Angeles’ Rim Protection By The Numbers
It is tempting to automatically assume that the Lakers, without annual Defensive Player of the Year candidate Davis on their team anymore, do a poor job of protecting the basket.
However, the numbers tell a different story: since trading away Davis, they are allowing the sixth-fewest made field goals per game within five feet of the basket. As one would expect from such a defense, they are locking down offenses that focus on scoring in this space, lately limiting Portland to 102 points and mighty Denver to 100 points.
Los Angeles’ Down Spot
Still, the Lakers are in a bad spot tonight because they are coming off an explosion in which they scored 130+ points.
After attaining such a high point total in a game (minus overtime and excluding their win over the pathetic Wizards who don’t play much defense), the Lakers this season have scored the following number of points in the subsequent game:
- 105 in a loss to Phoenix.
- 103 in a loss to Detroit.
- 110 in a loss to Cleveland.
- 119 in a loss to Utah.
Based on this trend, it is reasonable to expect the Lakers to score around 105-107 points.
As long as the Knicks stay within 13 or 14 points of their scoring average, then they will cover the spread tonight in what will be a low-scoring affair. The above trend suggests that the Lakers will in fact lose.
NBA Pick: Knicks +4.5 (-113) at BetOnline
NBA Pick: Knicks/Lakers Under 229.5 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
