There are many ways to take advantage of the NBA odds available on top sportsbooks – and the Phoenix Suns, who visit the Denver Nuggets this Friday.
And as usual, take a look at our YouTube channel for more NBA betting advice, featuring today’s Cavaliers vs. Hornets and Knicks vs. Clippers games.
Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets
Friday, March 07, 2025 – 10:00 PM ET at Ball Arena
It’s true: Money can’t buy happiness. Mat and Justin Ishbia spent $214.4 million on the Phoenix Suns payroll this year, blowing past the $140.6-million salary cap (and the luxury tax, and the first and second aprons), and here the Suns are at 29-33 SU and an NBA-worst 22-39-1 ATS. They won’t even make the Western Conference play-in at this rate.
The sharps aren’t jumping off just yet. BetOnline opened Phoenix as an 8-point road dog for Friday’s game against the Denver Nuggets (40-22 SU, 31-30-1 ATS), and before you could say “Vasilije Micic,” the Suns fell to +9 on the NBA odds board.
This would normally be where we tell you to take the points. But this is a Suns team that has gone 3-5 SU and ATS since the trade deadline, where they failed to address the roster imbalance that’s doomed their 2024-25 campaign. And they’re dragging their old bones to play at the highest elevation in the league. That’s a tough sell.
Which is why we’re pivoting to the total for our winning NBA picks – specifically, the 1Q total. Although this number has yet to be posted as we go to press, the full-game total has already slipped from 239 to 237.5 at BetOnline; perhaps you’ll find a bargain price on those 1Q odds by the time you read this.
Why Bet the 1Q Total?
Because the Suns are making it pay, according to the NBA betting trends we’re looking at, the Over is on a 29-16 1Q run for Phoenix, generating plus-10.55 betting units in profit. Tasty.
Is it just dumb luck over a small sample size? Perhaps, but make it the 1H NBA lines instead of 1Q, throw in a few extra games for good measure, and the Suns still have the Over at 32-20 (plus-10.00 units). Compare and contrast to their 32-28-2 Over record on the season for full-game totals.
It all makes sense. This is an aging Suns team with $150 million of that gigantic payroll spent on the following three players:
I could go into a whole spiel here about usage rate, but you already know what’s wrong with this picture: There’s only one ball. Beal is putting up the least productive numbers of his career because he’s been relegated to third-wheel status in this supposed Big Three.
What’s Wrong With Spending Money on Talent?
Nothing in and of itself. The Ishibas can spend as much money as they like on whomever they want, as long as they’re willing to pay the full price – which adds up to something like $442 million this year with the luxury tax, plus all those other punitive measures.
The problem is who the Ishbias are spending the rest of their payroll on. Phoenix has some decent role players like Josh Okogie and Royce O’Neale, but there’s not much bench strength beyond that. No wonder they’re struggling to put up points in the second half.
The Pick
Of course, we could try to take advantage of this imbalance by hammering the Under on those 2H NBA lines, especially when oldsters like Durant (36) and Mason Plumlee (35) are being asked to play in that thin Mile High air.
But the Nuggets have been running up the score early at home, taking the 1Q Over on a 22-6 run (plus-15.05 units) at Ball Arena. Bet accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.
NBA Pick: 1Q Game Total Over at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
