NBA Best Bets for March 9: The Pistons Have Their Engines On
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Rainman M.
- March 9, 2025
Top NBA Pick: Pistons -3 (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The sportsbooks have released their betting odds for today’s NBA action, and four games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Grizzlies vs. Pelicans, Jazz vs. 76ers, Cavaliers vs. Bucks, and Pistons vs. Trail Blazers. Let’s dive in!
Memphis Grizzlies vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Sunday, March 9, 2025 – 07:00 PM ET at Smoothie King Center
Memphis’ Key Absence
For Memphis, starting power forward Jaren Jackson Jr. is dealing with an ankle injury.
JJJ is crucial for Memphis’ interior defense. The former Defensive Player of the Year selection is an excellent shot-blocker and rim protector, as evident in his ability to limit the efficiency of opposing would-be scorers. His mobility also enables him to defend effectively along the perimeter and against ball-screens.
While stats make it obvious that JJJ is a great defender, perhaps the best evidence that he is an important one comes from games in which he’s been absent. Teams that regularly attain low-point totals thrive when JJJ is absent.
Utah, for example, averages 112.4 points per game. When the lowly Jazz played Memphis without JJJ, they accumulated 124 points in a game that saw a combined total of 250 points. Likewise, Houston averages 113.2 points per game and scored 128 points against a JJJ-less Memphis.
New Orleans’ Offense
The Pelicans have shifted their focus to scoring at the basket. They now attempt the seventh-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
With JJJ gone, their guards and bigger players face negligible resistance from the Grizzlies. They average close to as many points as Houston but have also blown past their scoring average in three of their last four games.
It is very reasonable to ask them to score around 125 tonight.
Memphis Wants to Run
Yes, JJJ can score, but center Zach Edey is going to do a lot of work to make up for JJJ’s absence. Edey’s high efficiency in his games against the Pelicans shows that he loves to play against them.
But it will primarily be Memphis’ general offensive style that contributes to its high point total. Led by star guard Ja Morant, the Grizzlies love to run. They score 2.9 more points per game in transition than any other team.
Their outlook is solid against a New Orleans defense that allows the second-highest point total in transition. The Grizzlies-Rockets game that JJJ missed only saw a combined total of 236 points because Houston has a solid defense. But the Pelicans rank dead-least in defensive rating, 26 spots behind Houston, and struggle especially in areas that Memphis most wants to exploit.
Heavily favored Memphis is going to exceed the Pelicans’ point total of 125.
NBA Pick: Over 239 (-110) at BetOnline
Utah Jazz vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Sunday, March 9, 2025 – 07:30 PM ET at Wells Fargo Center
Philadelphia Should Not Be Favored
The 76ers are 5.5-point favorites, and I have no idea why. Is it because they’re playing at home, where they recently lost by two points to Brooklyn and by 32 points to Chicago?
It is incredible to think that Tyrese Maxey and Paul George actually played in both of those games. But now the 76ers are down Maxey and George.
If Maxey is out, their only hope for winning has been to count on his talented backup point guard, but the latter has already been lost for the season. Star inside scorer and rim protector Joel Embiid is done, too. With four of its top five scorers sidelined, Philadelphia doesn’t have a chance.
The 76ers have lost 12 of their last 13 games, and it is easy to see why bad teams are blowing them out in Philly and why really bad teams are beating them in Philly even when they have had good scorers playing.
Utah is bad, too, yes, but the Jazz are still competing in road games. All we need from them is effort, which is what they’ve been showing in their most recent games.
NBA Pick: Jazz +5.5 (-110) at BetOnline
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Sunday, March 9, 2025 – 08:00 PM ET at Fiserv Forum
Milwaukee’s Fade Spot
Milwaukee is worth fading tonight because it is on the second leg of a back-to-back.
The Bucks’ top players, such as Giannis, played a lot of minutes last night in what was a close and intense affair against Orlando. So they will certainly feel like this is a back-to-back.
If you look at this team’s record in second legs, then you might not get what I’m talking about. But consider the quality of the opponent. Sure, they can beat terrible teams like Washington in this spot. But the point is that they cannot compete with good teams on second legs.
On second legs against good teams, they were down 18 late at Boston before the Celtics coasted to an 11-point win; they lost by 22 at New York; they lost by 29 at Oklahoma City; they lost by 14 at home to the Warriors.
Cleveland is (obviously) a good team and will thus continue this trend.
NBA Pick: Cavaliers -9 (-110) at BetOnline
Detroit Pistons vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Sunday, March 9, 2025 – 09:00 PM ET at Moda Center
Detroit’s Bounce-Back Spot
The Pistons looked really ugly on offense last night, especially behind the arc where they missed 18 of their 23 three-point attempts.
Their offense, though, tends to bounce back strongly after their lowest-scoring outputs. When they scored 106 against the Clippers on February 24, they scored 117 against a top-notch Boston defense in their following game. On February 9, they mustered 112 points against lowly Charlotte but then accumulated 132 points in their next game in Chicago.
The list continues because this is a high-powered offense led by a great scoring and playmaking guard in Cade Cunningham, who has excellent chemistry with his teammates.
Huge Matchup Advantages
The Pistons are going to win big relying as they like to do extensively on transition offense and pick-and-roll for the ball-handler plays.
Portland allows the seventh-most points in transition and the ninth-most points against the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type, making the Trail Blazers’ defense an ideal “get-right” group for Detroit’s Cunningham-led offense.
On offense, Portland is rather one-dimensional, ranking 26th in three-point percentage, which is 13 spots behind a Detroit group of shooters that will bounce back tonight after missing such an absurd number of threes in their last game.
The Trail Blazers primarily want to attack the basket, attempting the second-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Detroit’s defense has a great outlook tonight because it allows the fourth-fewest field goal make in this space. The Pistons have improved to achieve this ranking, relying on strong rim protectors such as center Isaiah Stewart, who makes it hard for opponents to score on him.
Portland is going to have a tough time scoring tonight with its inability to make threes because it will also struggle to score at the basket, whereas Detroit’s offense will thrive and will do so in different ways.
NBA Pick: Pistons -3 (-105) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
