NBA Best Bets for November 1: Something’s Strange With Charlotte Sometimes
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Jason Lake
- October 31, 2024
NBA Pick: Hornets +11 (–110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
It’s been a little over a year since Michael Jordan sold his majority stake in the Charlotte Hornets. Do they still suck? Maybe not; after reaching the playoffs just three times since Jordan took control of operations in 2006, the Hornets are off to a roaring start this year at… (checks notes) 2-2 SU and ATS.
Okay, not the stuff of legends. But we’re jumping on Charlotte for Friday’s NBA picks as 11-point home dogs against the Boston Celtics (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) at BetOnline, where the basketball odds have just hit the board hot and fresh at press time.
We’re also going to take a closer look at two of the names you might want to consider for your NBA player props at the online sportsbooks. These odds usually don’t come out until game day, but if we stick to first principles and look for undervalued commodities to follow – or overvalued commodities to fade – we’ll probably get a good price at the open.
Boston Celtics vs. Charlotte Hornets
Friday, November 01, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Spectrum Center
Are the Charlotte Hornets Any Good?
Not very. Charlotte may be .500 after four games, but they’ve also been outscored by 0.8 points per game, and they’ve done it against one of the softest schedules in the entire league. It took everything they had just to beat the gravely-wounded Toronto Raptors 138-133 Wednesday night as 6-point home faves.
Then again, at least the Hornets have LaMelo Ball (plus-2.4 EPM at Dunks and Threes) healthy and active for a change. Ball was Rookie of the Year at age 19, an All-Star at age 20, and then spent the next two seasons hobbled by ankle injuries. Here are some of his raw per-game stats in 2024-25 that will be key for both our Hornets pick and those NBA props:
- 28.5 points
- 7.0 assists
- 6.0 rebounds
- 1.3 steals
- 0.5 blocks
- 4.8 made threes
Ball’s scoring has gone up every year, from 15.7 PPG as a rookie to 23.9 last year. That’s in part because Ball’s usage rate has climbed along the way, but so has his true shooting percentage. Ball is also taking way more threes this year, as one should, and making them at a career-high 39.6%. Pay that man his money.
Why Fade the Boston Celtics?
Because they’re the champs. And because they don’t have arguably their top player from last year: Kristaps Porzingis (plus-5.1 BPM at Basketball Reference).
Obviously, Jayson Tatum (plus-5.1 BPM last year, plus-9.1 BPM this year) is the actual frontman for this band, and it’s not like Al Horford (plus-4.0 BPM this year) can’t play, but that just makes people overlook Porzingis even more – especially after the Celtics breezed through most of the 2024 NBA Playoffs without him.
Having said all that, are you finally willing to accept that Jaylen Brown (minus-3.1 BPM) is maybe Boston’s fifth best player? There are reasons Derrick White (plus-5.9 BPM) played in the Olympics and Brown didn’t.
Anyway, here are some of Brown’s raw numbers through five games if you want to pound the Under:
- 25.8 points
- 7.4 rebounds
- 3.6 assists
- 1.6 steals
- 0.4 blocks
- 2.4 made threes
The Pick
The C’s have outscored their opponents by 11.4 points per game, but their schedule hasn’t been all that tougher than Charlotte’s.
They’ve failed to cover back-to-back on the road, and now they’re being asked to win by at least 12 points against a plausibly near-average team, when NBA home-court advantage is worth about 1.45 points this year according to Jeff Sagarin? Bet accordingly.
NBA Pick: Hornets +11 (–110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
