NBA Best Bet for November 15: Yes, Orlando Has a Defense
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Jason Lake
- November 15, 2024
Top NBA Pick: Under 221 (–108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Shaquille O’Neal never performed like this. Neither did Dwight Howard. How are the Orlando Magic doing it? According to the fine folks at Pro Basketball Reference, the 2024-25 Magic are playing the best defense in the history of the franchise, checking in at minus-8.2 on the Relative Defensive Rating charts.
Maybe it’s just the small sample size of 13 games. Or maybe head coach Jamahl Mosley’s got something cooking. Either way, we’re putting the Under at our top-rated sportsbooks when the Magic (Under 7-6) host the wounded Philadelphia 76ers (Over 6-5). It’s a moral imperative.
And if you’re looking for more value picks, our expert on our YouTube channel has additional betting angles on this game and the Suns vs. Thunder bout as well.
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Orlando Magic
Friday, November 15, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Kia Center
Is the Magic Defense for Real?
It seems that way. This didn’t just happen overnight; it’s Year Four for Mosley in Orlando, and their defense has gotten better every season under his watch:
- 2020-21 (under Steve Clifford): plus-2.2 Rel DRtg
- 2021-22: plus-0.5
- 2022-23: minus-0.6
- 2023-24: minus-4.0
- 2024-25: minus-8.2
This upward trend matches Orlando’s development as a franchise, including this offseason’s signing of SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (minus-4.7 OBPM, plus-2.1 DBPM at PBRef), whose tenacious D has helped two different teams ascend to the NBA championship. Can Caldwell-Pope complete the Danny Green Trifecta next summer?
Maybe. Orlando’s gravy train was sidetracked on October 30 when swingman Paolo Banchero (plus-5.6 OBPM, plus-0.5 DBPM) tore a right oblique muscle. But that just prompted Mosley and the Magic to double down on defense, and without Banchero’s team-leading 28.7 points per 36 minutes, the Under is 6-2 in November thus far.
Are the Sixers Back?
Nope. They did get their own No. 1 player back in uniform Tuesday when center Joel Embiid made his season debut against the New York Knicks, joining SF Paul George on the court for the first time as Sixers teammates. However, PG Tyrese Maxey was knocked out of commission last week with a bad hammy, and Embiid was held to 13 points on 2-of-11 shooting in a 111-99 loss (Under 213).
Then Embiid and George both skipped Wednesday’s game against the Cleveland Cavaliers, ostensibly with sore knees. Final score: Cleveland 114, Philadelphia 106 (Over 218.5). Head coach Nick Nurse and the 76ers have been very cheeky this year when it comes to load management and Embiid’s status, but as far as our NBA picks are concerned, we want the hobbled version of Embiid in action this Friday.
Slow and Steady
In the meantime, the Under is 3-1 in the four games since Maxey (plus-1.5 OBPM, minus-1.4 DBPM) was shelved and PG Kyle Lowry (minus-0.8 OBPM, plus-1.1 DBPM) took over the reins. It’s also 4-1 with George (plus-0.5 OBPM, plus-1.5 DBPM) as a Sixer.
Let’s get as many of these broken-down veterans in the lineup as possible. Philadelphia runs the second-slowest pace in the league at 94.9 possessions per game, which doesn’t really square with Nurse’s preferred offensive scheme of maximizing shot attempts relative to his opponents. Speaking of which, Orlando ranks No. 18 overall in tempo at 97.4 possessions per game. It’s like molasses in your mouth.
The Pick
You must always handle the Sixers carefully when you bet on the NBA. You may have seen the phrase “wait until the morning shootaround” a few times in this space, but are those still reliable barometers for who’s going to play that night, especially when it comes to Philly?
We’ll take whatever help we can get. Public bettors tend to hammer the Over anyway, so maybe we’ll get a better price on the Under closer to tip-off if the conditions are right.
Bet accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.
NBA Pick: Under 221 (–108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
