NBA Best Bets for November 17: Houston, We Have Liftoff
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Rainman M.
- November 17, 2024
Top NBA Pick: Rockets -4.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for today’s action.
Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Denver vs. Memphis and Houston vs. Chicago. For your best bets, I will recommend investing in the Grizzlies and Rockets.
Denver Nuggets vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Sunday, November 12, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET at FedExForum
Denver’s Bad Rim Protection
The Nuggets do not have centers who can reliably protect the rim.
Their starting center is, of course, Nikola Jokic, who always gets criticized by NBA fans for his defense. This is because they repeatedly see the player he’s guarding beat him one-on-one.
Jokic actually might not play today. He is listed as ‘questionable’ for personal reasons. His absence would hurt Denver, which would miss out on his offensive prowess and which still wouldn’t improve on defense.
Backup center Zeke Nnaji is out-of-place at the center position. Nnaji feels more comfortable playing at the power forward position, but he is stuck playing center. He, too, as his defensive ratings show despite the time he spends guarding backups, is a weak rim protector. Among other things, his lack of physical presence in the post makes it easier for his opponents to take advantage of him.
Partly thanks to the likes of Jokic and Nnaji, Denver allows the eighth-most field goals within five feet of the basket per game. The Nuggets also struggle to limit scoring at the basket because they have trouble getting back on defense. In terms of PPP (points per possession), they are the second-worst team at defending in transition.
Scottie Pippen Jr.
Memphis’ star point guard Ja Morant is injured, and the Grizzlies could care less. His backup, Scottie Pippen Jr., is a major reason why.
Pippen Jr. brings stronger defense and three-point shooting than Murray is capable of achieving. It is true that, if a defender knows that he and Morant are driving to the basket, then that defender would prefer not to guard Morant. However, the thing with Pippen Jr. is that you don’t know if he will drive to the basket.
His three-point conversion rate is over 15 percent higher than Morant’s, so defenders have to respect his shot, which means that they have to guard him closely when he possesses the ball behind the perimeter. They can’t guard him with the expectation that he’ll drive inside.
Morant’s backup is an efficient force at the basket. He is helping Memphis continue to thrive in transition as well as on defense.
Key Matchup Detail
Pippen Jr. is one reason why the Grizzlies make the most field goals per game within five feet of the basket. Memphis, by a 5.9-point margin, also scores the most in transition per game.
Given Denver’s lack of rim protection and its poor transition defense, the Grizzlies’ offense is well-built to thrive at the basket. Among others, look out for Jaren Jackson Jr., who is scoring 26 points per game this month and is likewise known for his solid defense.
Memphis’ Superior Rim Protection
On offense, the Nuggets rely on getting to the basket. They attempt the third-most field goals within five feet of the basket. That said, I like the Grizzlies in this game because their rim protection is stronger than Denver’s.
Both Brandon Clarke and Jackson Jr. help Memphis have the fifth-best defense, in terms of defensive rating, with their rim protection. Zach Edey also is a force guarding the rim with his unique size and length.
Overall, Memphis is one of the best teams at limiting field goals and field goal efficiency within five feet of the basket.
Takeaway
Both teams primarily want to attack the basket, but Memphis is the only one that will do so comfortably tonight.
NBA Pick: Grizzlies -2 (-110) at BetOnline
Houston Rockets vs. Chicago Bulls
Sunday, November 17, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at United Center
Chicago’s Offense
When Chicago thrives on offense, it will likely be due to its three-point shooting.
The Bulls are one of the worst teams at scoring at the basket. Point guard Josh Giddey, for example, does a terrible job of finishing at the rim. He makes less than half of his field goal attempts within five feet of the basket.
With guys like Giddey, Chicago attempts the fifth-most three-pointers per game.
Houston’s Perimeter Defense
Houston’s defense will thrive today because its strength is at guarding the perimeter. Small forward Dillon Brooks, for example, is somebody who prides himself on playing tough on-ball defense.
Center Alperen Sengun typifies Houston’s strength at perimeter defense because he is a bit weak in the interior with his lack of strength, but he has improved a lot along the perimeter, which is why Houston is not content with having him play drop coverage on ball screens.
Filled with strong perimeter defenders, the Rockets do the third-best job of keeping teams from making threes. They are the best team at preventing wide-open three-point attempts, which shows their determination on defense to limit favorable attempts from behind the arc.
Outlook for Houston’s Offense
It is hard to like the Bulls when you think that they’ll struggle to score.
This is because their defense is poor, as their defensive rating shows. Particularly, the Bulls are the worst team at guarding the space within five feet of the basket. In this space, they allow the most field goals and the highest field goal percentage.
Houston is well-built to take advantage. It has versatile players like Jalen Green, whose speed makes it difficult for defenders to stay in front of him, who are efficient at the basket. The Rockets can also score via post-ups from the likes of Jabari Smith Jr.
Overall, Houston relies on scoring at the basket, making Chicago an ideal opponent for it.
Takeaway
The Bulls will allow over 120 points tonight, as they regularly do, but their offense won’t keep pace because it is reliant on three-point shooting and Houston’s perimeter defense is stout.
NBA Pick: Rockets -4.5 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
