NBA Best Bets for November 21: Raptors Are on the Hunt
-
Rainman M.
- November 21, 2024
Top NBA Pick: Raptors +7 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for today’s action.
Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Pistons vs. Hornets and Timberwolves vs. Raptors. For your best bets, I will recommend investing in the Pistons and Raptors.
Detroit Pistons vs. Charlotte Hornets
Thursday, November 21, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Spectrum Center
Rematch
These two teams played, in Charlotte, on November 6. Charlotte won by one point.
This result will not repeat itself tonight because the Hornets were lucky on November 6 to have Detroit’s starting center, Jalen Duren, sustain an injury eight minutes into the game.
Duren’s defensive rating attests to a strong degree of improvement in his defense. He is a valuable shot-blocker and an even better rebounder. His size and athleticism will help the Pistons win tonight because he is healthy.
Detroit’s Great Spot
Detroit is also in a solid spot tonight because it is coming off a loss.
The Pistons have become a solid bounce-back team. They have won their last five games that directly followed a loss. Their victims were the 76ers in Philadelphia, the Nets in Brooklyn, the Hawks at home, the Heat at home and the Raptors in Toronto.
Detroit’s Perimeter Defense
One thing that will carry Detroit to victory tonight will be its perimeter defense.
I get what Chicago accomplished in its last game. But you have to understand that Detroit has a young team and young players are notoriously inconsistent. That’s why tonight’s spot is so strong for the Pistons — coming off what was a learning experience, Detroit’s defenders will return to form.
This expectation is justified by their last bounce-back effort in which they shut down the Raptors, especially in the fourth quarter, in a game that followed one in which their defense had a terrible performance against Milwaukee.
On the season, the Pistons rank eighth at limiting opposing three-point attempts. Moreover, they do the tenth-best job at limiting wide-open three-point attempts. These stats indicate that they are good at running opponents off the three-point line and at preventing them from procuring favorable looks from behind the arc.
Why This Matters
The positive outlook for Detroit’s perimeter defense tonight is significant because Charlotte relies heavily on its three-point attack. Charlotte attempts the second-most three-pointers per game.
The Hornets are terrible at finishing around the basket, so they shoot a lot of threes out of necessity. Without being able to score a lot of points from behind the arc, their offense will struggle.
It is hard to like the Hornets to win when their offense will struggle because, as measured by defensive rating, they have one of the NBA’s lower-quality defenses.
NBA Pick: Pistons +1 (-115) at BetOnline
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Toronto Raptors
Thursday, November 21, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena
Minnesota’s New Offense
We have to break down Minnesota’s games this year differently than we did last year. This is because, last year, they ranked 23rd in three-pointers attempted per game. Currently, this season, they have moved up to fifth in the category.
Because Minnesota is now primarily focused on shooting threes, it is decisively important to know the quality of its opponent’s perimeter defense.
Toronto’s Perimeter Defense
I like the Raptors tonight because they boast a stout perimeter defense.
The Raptors do the seventh-best job of limiting opposing three-pointers made. This is easier for them to do because they’ve constructed a lineup that is well-stocked with lengthy wings.
With lengthy wings, a team has a better chance of contesting opposing shots. Hence, Toronto is one of the better teams both at limiting opposing open three-point attempts and at limiting opposing wide-open three-point attempts.
The Raptors also do a strong job of limiting opposing three-point attempts especially when they play at home, where their home crowd gives them a perceptible boost. Thus, in addition to contesting three-point shots well, the Raptors also reliably run shooters off of the three-point line.
Toronto’s Rim-Attackers
Now, Minnesota also does a good job of preventing three-pointers, but I like the Raptors because Minnesota’s strength on defense won’t bother Toronto’s offense.
The Raptors do not rely on three-point shooting. Instead, they primarily want to attack the rim. They attempt the most field goals per game within five feet of the basket. This determination to score inside coincides with Minnesota’s weakness on defense, which is guarding the basket.
Jakob Poeltl and RJ Barrett
Watch out, among others, for the inside scoring of Jakob Poeltl and RJ Barrett. Both show great form.
When these teams first met, Toronto lost by eleven, but the game was in Minnesota, Barrett did not play and Poeltl was achieving nowhere near the 30-points-per-game average that he has been achieving in his last three games.
Barrett and Poeltl will be two reasons why Toronto is more comfortable on offense than Minnesota.
NBA Pick: Raptors +7 (-115) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
