NBA Best Bet for November 22: Eat the Chalk, Fade the Pels
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Jason Lake
- November 22, 2024
NBA Pick: Warriors –8.5 (–108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
There is a time for buying low and selling high. There’s also a time for kicking a team while it’s down. Friday night’s all right for kicking; the New Orleans Pelicans are 4-12 SU and ATS, including 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS since Zion Williamson last played. He’s out indefinitely with a strained left hamstring.
Williamson’s not the only one. The Pels have so many quality players on the injured list, that we can’t help to recommend the Golden State Warriors (11-3 SU, 10-4 ATS) for Friday’s NBA picks, even if they’ve opened as 8.5-point road faves at a top-rated sportsbook like Heritage Sports.
Just don’t bet the farm when the chalk’s this big.
Make sure to check out our YouTube channel for additional NBA betting advice, featuring today’s Nets vs. 76ers and Celtics vs. Wizards games.
Golden State Warriors vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Friday, November 22, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at Smoothie King Center
Are the Warriors Back?
A version of them, yes. Now that he doesn’t have Klay Thompson to drag him down anymore, Stephen Curry (plus-10.0 BPM at Basketball Reference) is playing like an MVP again. And Draymond Green (plus-2.6 BPM) is still out there doing Draymond Green things. Andrew Wiggins (plus-2.8 BPM) makes it a plausible Big Three that’s already won the title together in 2022.
The supporting cast looks a lot different, though. Sophomore big Trayce Jackson-Davis (plus-4.1 BPM) might be the breakout star from this crowd, and Buddy Hield (plus-3.9 BPM) is canning 45.1% of his trey attempts as their sixth man, more than making up for Thompson’s departure to Dallas.
Even better, the Warriors have wisely decided to de-emphasize Jonathan Kuminga (minus-1.1 BPM) and spread some of those minutes around while they seek a trade partner. Lindy Waters III (plus-1.0 BPM) is getting that action in the starting five now that De’Anthony Melton (knee) is out for the year; the Dubs are 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS since making this change, but they could easily be 3-1 ATS after just whiffing against Memphis last Friday. They get our Super Genius Seal of Approval ™.
Will Zion Play on Friday?
Not likely. But we are looking at the potential return of at least one Pelican who can mess up our NBA picks. Here’s their list of walking wounded as we go to press:
- PG Jose Alvarado (out, hamstring)
- SG Jordan Hawkins (out, back)
- SF Herb Jones (out, shoulder)
- PF Zion Williamson (out, hamstring)
- PG CJ McCollum (day-to-day, thigh)
- SF Brandon Ingram (day-to-day, ankle)
- SF Trey Murphy III (day-to-day, hamstring)
- PG Dejounte Murray (day-to-day, hand)
Those last four players might be their best outside of Zion, so it’s remarkable in a way that we have any NBA lines at all on this contest. Will Guillory at The Athletic says McCollum could suit up Friday, but as things stand at press time, the others will remain in civvies.
McCollum (plus-3.1 BPM last year) is the kind of guy who can bring some order to the chaos in New Orleans. He probably won’t be his usual self after missing the last 12 games, but he’ll probably be better than Elfrid Payton, who was brought in off the scrap heap Wednesday to play his first NBA game since 2022. Final score: New Orleans 100, Cleveland 128 (CLE –14).
The Pick
There still won’t be much talent surrounding McCollum this Friday, so we’re more than happy to fade the Pels, even at this price.
However, there’s no need to go too deep into your bankroll, especially when this happens to be an NBA Cup game. The motivation to win is real; bet accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.
NBA Pick: Warriors –8.5 (–108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
