NBA Best Bets for November 23: Stars Are Shining in Los Angeles
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Rainman M.
- November 23, 2024
Top NBA Pick: Nuggets/Lakers Over 232.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for today’s action.
In particular, the early game between the Knicks and Jazz and the late game between the Nuggets and Lakers interest me as worth investing in. For your best bets, I will recommend investing in the Knicks and the Nuggets-Lakers “over.”
New York Knicks vs. Utah Jazz
Saturday, November 23, 2024 – 05:00 PM ET at Delta Center
New York’s Form
At the beginning of the season, New York did not look as strong as it did in last year’s postseason. The Knicks sat at 5-6. But now they have won four games in a row, with their last three wins coming by double-digit margins.
In both of their last two games, they exceeded 130 points. This current tendency to exceed 130 points makes the Knicks a great bet to cover the spread, because, obviously, a favored team will have a better chance of covering the spread if it can score a lot of points.
New York’s Hot Shooting
The Knicks enter this game having made a combined total of 39 three-pointers in their past two games.
If you think that they are somehow “due” for a bad night, then you should know that NBA teams have proven capable of experiencing extended periods of strong shooting. The Nets, who converted at least 40 percent of their three-point attempts for several games in a row, provide one recent example.
The Knicks are relying on solid shooting from scorers whose strong shooting form does not represent an anomaly because they have already been known to be efficient from behind the arc. Such scorers include:
The Knicks are clearly succeeding in their endeavor to incorporate the newcomer Towns into their offense. His three-point shooting improves the offense’s spacing.
Utah’s Perimeter Defense
Utah is just the team against which the Knicks can continue their hot shooting. The Jazz rank 25th at limiting three-pointers.
To break this statistic down, they rank 23rd at limiting three-point attempts and allow wide-open three-point attempts with the third-highest frequency. These last two stats indicate that they do a poor job both of running shooters off the three-point line and of contesting three-point attempts.
Jazz Lack of Rim Protection
Utah’s lack of a strong rim protector — a problem since Rudy Gobert left the team — has a negative ripple effect. Obviously, it makes the Jazz easy to score on inside the arc. However, when a team lacks a strong rim protector, then more gets asked of its perimeter defenders, who have to help more inside and cannot afford to guard shooters too closely behind the arc.
Now, some folks basically say that Walker Kessler is a good rim protector, but his defensive rating is awful and he is, in any case, dealing with a hip injury that leaves him “questionable” for tonight’s game.
His backup, John Collins, definitely does not have the tools to be much of a rim protector. He is built like a power forward, although being 6-9 represents only a partial explanation for why he lacks the necessary physical abilities.
Utah Can’t Keep Pace
New York is one of the most dedicated teams to limiting scoring around the basket. Against the Knicks, it is uniquely difficult to reach the basket and attempt a shot in this space. So, Utah won’t score much inside, but the Jazz are also one of the least efficient teams from behind the arc.
The Jazz lack developed scoring talent, with their reliance on Keyonte George — who is their starting point guard even though he is a poor shooter and still not much of a distributor — providing one example of why their offense is so bad compared to that of other teams.
Takeaway
The Knicks will continue amassing points. They will thrive inside and outside the arc against a vulnerable defensive team that lacks the scoring talent to keep up.
NBA Pick: Knicks -8.5 (-110) at BetOnline
Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Saturday, November 23, 2024 – 10:30 PM ET at Crypto.com Arena
Lakers’ Lack of Rim Protection
Both teams are at a loss for quality rim protectors, and this lack will cost them severely tonight.
The Lakers lack a true rim protector. Anthony Davis, while he is good at making his stat sheet look good with his block total, prefers to play the power forward position.
We saw, for example, how critical L.A.’s lack of rim protection was when in their game against Cleveland the Cavaliers dominated inside the arc. This game took place on October 30, and nothing has changed since in this respect.
Overall, the Lakers allow the fifth-most field goals within five feet of the basket. Davis’ backup center, Jaxson Hayes, has also been ruled out with an ankle injury.
Denver’s Lack of Rim Protection
Denver is right behind the Lakers in terms of lacking rim protection. The Nuggets allow the sixth-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
NBA fans love to bully Nikola Jokic for his defense, and there is certainly something to that. He is not going to rise up and block shots. He won’t defend shots in the paint well. His backup Zeke Nnaji should be Denver’s power forward instead of being Jokic’s backup center.
Nnaji has always lacked the physical tools to be a strong rim protector. His defense inside the paint was already transparently bad in his college days at Arizona, as his scouting reports discussed before he entered the NBA.
Both Offenses Will Take Advantage
We have two offensively potent centers in Davis for the Lakers and Jokic for the Nuggets — both average around 30 points per game — who will score a lot of points without providing their respective teams with stout rim protection.
Both teams lack true rim protectors and will be exploited by the other team’s offense. The Lakers make the most field goals within five feet of the basket. Denver ranks fourth in the category. Their respective centers are only two reasons why.
Takeaway
Both teams will be immensely comfortable on offense. They both primarily want to attack the basket. They’ll each have an easy time doing this against a defense that lacks adequate rim protection.
NBA Pick: Nuggets/Lakers Over 232.5 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
