NBA Best Bets for November 24: The Nets Are Kings in Sacramento

Boston’s Defensive Vulnerabilities

Boston is heavily favored in this game despite the fact that multiple decisive matchup factors go against them.

For starters, the Celtics have played some of their worst games against teams that rank top-ten in both three-point attempts and top-ten at limiting opposing made three-pointers. They struggle, in other words, against teams that prioritize both shooting threes and guarding the perimeter on defense.

To be specific, they lost by six at home to Golden State. Moreover, the Nets took them to overtime. They have also struggled against teams that prioritize getting to the rim, as evident in their shocking home loss to Atlanta.

Now, Boston has a well-regarded defense, but there are two things to note here:

• Teams that are particularly good at procuring three-point opportunities are able to do so against Boston.
• As good as Boston’s defense is, it is not only vulnerable to good three-point shooters, but also its rim protection is vulnerable because key rim protector Kristaps Porzingis is still injured.

Minnesota’s Three-Point Shooting

Minnesota is a team that excels at procuring favorable three-point attempts. The Timberwolves attempt open three-pointers with the third-highest frequency. They feature strong ball movement, with players moving well without the ball by, for example, coming off screens.

With multiple dangerous rim-attackers, they’ll sometimes work inside-out. They’ll also work for open three-point attempts by operating in isolation and creating their own shot.

Partly because they get so many great looks, the Timberwolves rank sixth in three-point percentage, which is several spots higher than Boston.

Minnesota’s Perimeter Defense

On the other side, the Timberwolves boast multiple stout perimeter defenders.

Jaden McDaniels might be the best one in the entire NBA, as evidenced by his statistically evident ability to limit shot quality along the perimeter. Largely, thanks to him, Minnesota is the best team at limiting opposing three-pointers made. This is a crucial statistic against a Boston team that relies so heavily on making threes, as it easily ranks number one in three-point attempts per game.

Overall, Minnesota ranks first at limiting open three-point attempts and fifth at limiting wide-open three-point attempts. Minnesota also does the best job at limiting three-point attempts in general.

These stats indicate that, partly due to McDaniels, the Timberwolves are elite at running teams off the three-point line and at preventing them from finding favorable looks from deep.

Minnesota’s Star Power

Now, Boston has a great player in Jayson Tatum.

When the Celtics beat the Nets in their rematch, they relied on Tatum being at his best. Boston proved too much for the Nets because the Nets don’t have a player whose caliber approaches Tatum’s.

I do think that the Timberwolves’ defense will stifle Boston’s three-point-oriented attack. However, it boosts my confidence in Minnesota to know that, if Tatum does prove unstoppable — star players are, sometimes, simply unstoppable in a given game — Minnesota has the star power to match Tatum, whereas Brooklyn did not.

For the Timberwolves, Anthony Edwards excels at driving to the basket. He struggled in last year’s playoff against Dallas because the Mavericks excelled at that point in time at walling off the paint.

But Boston is currently vulnerable inside without the injured Porzingis. The Celtics allow the sixth-most field goals per game within five feet of the basket, so a characteristic rim-attacker like Edwards has a great outlook today regardless of whether Tatum is great today or not.

Takeaway

Minnesota matches up well against a Boston team that struggles with strong three-point shooting groups who are solid at defending the perimeter and who struggle to protect the basket.

If Tatum turns out to be great today, then we’ll have a pretty close game in which Minnesota will easily cover the spread. If Tatum is not that great, then Minnesota will definitely win and will also cover the spread by an even bigger margin.

Edwards’ rim-attacking, McDaniels with his perimeter defense and Minnesota’s group of efficient three-point shooters will be key factors in the Timberwolves’ success today.

NBA Pick: Timberwolves +8 (-110) at BetOnline

Timberwolves +8 (-110)

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Brooklyn Nets vs. Sacramento Kings

Sunday, November 24, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Golden 1 Center