NBA Best Bets for November 26: The Suns Are Shining in Phoenix
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Rainman M.
- November 26, 2024
The sportsbooks have released their betting odds for tonight’s NBA action, and two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Rockets vs. Timberwolves and Lakers vs. Suns.
Check out our expert advice and betting picks below!
Houston Rockets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Tuesday, November 26, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Target Center
Houston’s Offense
On offense, the Rockets primarily want to attack the basket.
Obviously, center Alperen Sengun likes to score at the basket, but also guards like Fred VanVleet and forwards like Dillon Brooks and Tari Eason love to drive to the basket. Overall, Houston attempts the fifth-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Houston Is Just the Team to Beat Minnesota
Minnesota has developed a strong tendency to lose to teams that prioritize attacking the basket.
For example, Portland attempts the most field goals within five feet of the basket. The Trail Blazers, despite the fact that they are a losing team, have won two of their three games against Minnesota.
Moreover, Toronto attempts the second-most field goals within five feet of the basket and, less than a week ago, pulled off what the betting markets considered to be a significant upset by beating the Timberwolves.
The Timberwolves prioritize guarding the perimeter, which does not pose a problem for a Houston team that does not want to win by converting three-point attempts.
Houston is in great shape tonight because it wants to attack the rim and rim protection is the weakness of Minnesota’s defense.
Houston’s Perimeter Defense
Like Minnesota, Houston prioritizes guarding the perimeter, but, in Houston’s case, this works to the Rockets’ advantage on defense.
This is because the Timberwolves, this year, are attempting way more three-pointers than they did last year. Currently, they attempt the fifth-most three-pointers per game.
Their outlook on offense is negative against a Houston defense that ranks fourth at limiting three-point attempts and that allows wide-open three-point attempts with the third-lowest frequency.
These statistics indicate that Houston excels at running teams off the three-point line and at contesting three-point attempts.
Minnesota will want to rely on getting good looks from the basket but will fail to do so against a Houston team that is well-stocked with stout perimeter defenders, such as the characteristically feisty Brooks.
The Pick
Houston’s offense will be the only offense in this game to do what it wants to do on a reliable basis.
The Rockets will thrive as a team focused on attacking the rim against a defense that prioritizes preventing three-pointers.
They will also thrive because their defense excels at guarding the perimeter, which means that they will take away the means of scoring that Minnesota’s offense primarily relies on.
NBA Pick: Rockets +3.5 (-110) at BetOnline
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Phoenix Suns
Tuesday, November 26, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at Footprint Center
Guess Who’s Back, Back Again
Phoenix is in great shape tonight. This might seem to be an odd thing to say given its current losing streak. But there is an obvious explanation for its losing streak, which must extinguish any of the concerns normally associated with losing streaks.
Phoenix is 1-6 without star scorers Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal. Both players, however, are expected to return tonight, according to sources from ESPN. With these two players back, Phoenix’s “big three” — consisting also in star Devin Booker — is intact.
Durant leads the team with 27.6 points per game, followed by Booker at 24.1 points and Beal at 17.8 points per game. Their ability to play is fundamental to the team’s chances of succeeding on offense.
Three-Pointers
Among other things, Beal and Durant provide a tremendous boost to Phoenix’s three-point attack. They are both high-volume, efficient three-point shooters.
Phoenix’s outlook is great not simply because they’re back, but because they can thrive against a Lakers defense that is struggling to guard the perimeter.
The Lakers have lost their last two games — to Orlando and Denver, respectively — largely because of their deficient perimeter defense.
Most recently, they lost by 25 at home to the Nuggets, who converted 16 of their 32 three-point attempts.
Outlook for Lakers’ Offense
The Lakers, on offense, are strongly disinclined to attempt three-pointers. They attempt them at one of the lowest rates. Instead, they rely primarily on scoring at the basket.
Hence, for example, they start a shooting guard in Cam Reddish who, even in his college days, has always been a poor shooter from behind the arc. This reliance creates a negative outlook for them because the Suns are dedicated to taking away looks at the basket.
Phoenix is one of the better teams at limiting field goals made within five feet of the basket. With the skillset of a lengthy and characteristically versatile defender like Durant, who can effectively guard different positions, the Suns can only be aided by his return in their endeavor to protect the basket.
The Pick
The Suns will return to winning thanks to the return of Beal and Durant, who will propel their offense.
Their three-point attack will be sharp, whereas the Lakers with their reliance on scoring inside will fail to keep pace.
NBA Pick: Suns -3.5 (-108) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
