NBA Best Bets for November 29: Fade Jaylen Brown in Chi-Town
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Jason Lake
- November 29, 2024
NBA Pick: Jaylen Brown Under 24.5 Points (–105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Those Jaylen Brown props for Friday’s Celtics-Bulls matchup are dripping with value – if you put the Under in your NBA picks.
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I’ve said it a few times in this space: Jaylen Brown might be the fifth-best player on the Boston Celtics. I don’t mean it as an insult, either. Look at the other four guys in the mix:
Maybe I should revise my rankings for 2024-25. Brown is scoring 25.0 points per game, up from 23.0 last year; however, Brown’s minus-0.2 Box Plus/Minus at Basketball Reference puts him behind not only the four players listed above, but the following as well:
- Al Horford (plus-3.8 BPM)
- Payton Pritchard (plus-3.3)
- Luke Kornet (plus-3.1)
- Sam Hauser (0.0)
Of course, Brown is being asked to shoulder more of the load than anyone on this team outside of Tatum. But he’s clearly an overvalued commodity heading into Friday’s tilt with the Chicago Bulls. Let’s take advantage by hammering those NBA player props at the top-rated sportsbooks, where Brown has opened with a total of 24.5 points scored.
Boston Celtics vs. Chicago Bulls
Friday, November 29, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at United Center
Why Do You Hate Jaylen Brown?
Hey now. Hate has nothing to do with it; we’re dealing with cold, hard facts here at the home office.
- FACT #1: Jaylen Brown’s 30.1 Usage Rate is second on the C’s behind Tatum at 31.6%.
- FACT #2: Jaylen Brown’s 50.4 Effective Field Goal Percentage is 10th and last among all Celtics playing at least 10 minutes per game.
I could go on about how each of Brown’s three All-Star nominations thus far is sus, and increasingly so as he’s put on more mileage. He’ll probably make it in again this year because he’s Jaylen Brown, and because he plays for the Boston Celtics. That’s the way the world turns.
Or maybe Brown will earn it this time by improving his level of play. That 50.4 eFG% (which accounts for 3-point shooting) is the lowest of his career, and down sharply from 55.7% last year. Brown has indeed been dealing with a strained hip flexor that cost him four games earlier this month. He’s played some of his best basketball since returning to action – but also some of his worst against tougher opponents like Cleveland (17 points on 17 shots).
What About the Bulls?
Okay, the Bulls (8-12 SU, 9-11 ATS) aren’t one of the NBA’s tougher opponents. And they’re not very good on defense, ranking No. 26 overall at 114.6 points allowed per 100 possessions. We also have to be worried about Chicago’s league-fastest tempo of 104.1 possessions per game.
Ah, but check this out: Lonzo Ball (plus-1.0 DBPM lifetime) is back in action. Ball played almost 15 minutes off the bench in Wednesday’s 133-119 loss to Orlando, which admittedly went well Over the posted total of 225. Even so, Ball looked pretty good out there, as he did in his first three games before suffering a sprained wrist in late October. He should look even better this Friday after shaking off some of that ring rust.
Porzingis (plus-1.6 DBPM last year) made his own return for Boston in their last game, playing 22:36 of Monday’s 126-94 win over the L.A. Clippers. And while that result also went Over their posted total of 218.5, Porzingis was there doing Porzingis things: two blocks, one steal and five defensive rebounds.
Just give them the title again already.
The Pick
The key for Friday’s pick is Porzingis eating into Brown’s minutes/Usage Rate.
Brown played just 30:45 against the Clippers with a 22.8 USG%, third among the starters behind Tatum (30.2) and Porzingis (29.1), thus limiting Brown to 17 points on a season-low 11 shots.
Bet accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.
NBA Pick: Jaylen Brown Under 24.5 Points (–105) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
