NBA Best Bets for November 3: Minnesota Has Made a Valuable Change
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Rainman M.
- November 2, 2024
Top NBA Pick: Timberwolves -4 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for today’s action.
Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Memphis vs. Philadelphia and Minnesota vs. San Antonio. For your best bets, I will recommend investing in the Grizzlies and Timberwolves.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Saturday, November 02, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at Wells Fargo Center
Memphis’ Inside Attack
On offense, the Grizzlies primarily want to score at the basket. They make the third-most field goals within five feet of the basket and boast the highest field goal efficiency in this space.
Part of the reason why they are so efficient is that they excel in transition. In their half-court offense, they’ll implement strong spacing techniques — for example, they’ll position a guy in each corner — to create operating room inside for speedy rim-attackers like Ja Morant.
They’ll also run intricate actions — through horns sets, for example — that likewise promote good spacing and allow Morant to attack downhill. In general, Morant and Zach Edey form a lethal pick-and-roll duo.
Philadelphia’s Absent Rim Protection
Philadelphia continues to miss injured star rim protector Joel Embiid, an annual Defensive Player of the Year candidate.
Largely due to his absence, the 76ers do a relatively poor job of preventing teams from collecting field goals within five feet of the basket and from scoring near the basket at an efficient rate. Whether they are in the half-court or in transition, the 76ers are vulnerable to Memphis’ preferred method of scoring.
Philadelphia’s One-Dimensional Offense
The 76ers are allergic to making threes. They convert three-point attempts with 27.7-percent frequency. As such, they are one of two teams shooting less than 30 percent from behind the arc.
Instead of shooting threes, they primarily want to attack inside. However, they also do a poor job of scoring inside where they have the second-lowest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
Again, they miss Embiid, who is normally their leading scorer.
Memphis’ Defense
The Grizzlies are well-built to deter prospective finishers inside.
They have one of the most intimidating rim protectors in Edey, who is 7-4 and likes to position himself in drop coverage to remain near the basket. The best way to score against Memphis is to remain far from Edey by shooting threes.
Philadelphia’s dependence on scoring inside the arc creates a negative outlook for their offense.
Takeaway
One team will find scoring easy in this game. That team is Memphis.
The Grizzlies will thrive inside, both in the half-court and in transition. Conversely, Philadelphia misses scoring talent. Not only Embiid but also Paul George remains injured.
Philly is one of the worst shooting teams, which will matter a lot in a game where they’ll really need to make threes. The 76ers will continue to brick too many threes, but they will also struggle to score inside with a guy like Edey patrolling the rim.
NBA Pick: Grizzlies -2 (-130) at BetOnline
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. San Antonio Spurs
Saturday, November 02, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Frost Bank Center
Minnesota’s New Look
The Timberwolves have redesigned themselves offensively.
Their new offense is more set-based. They are running more plays. These plays contribute to a goal pertaining to the team’s shot profile: they want to shoot more three-pointers.
Whereas they ranked 23rd in three-pointers attempted per game last year, they now attempt the sixth-most three-pointers. Rudy Gobert, for example, is setting screens to enable Anthony Edwards to attempt way more three-pointers than he did last year.
This is a valuable change because the offense was their weakness last year, whereas they were an elite defensive squad. Last season, they ranked 17th in offensive rating. Now they rank 9th in the category.
Edwards, for example, has improved significantly in terms of three-point efficiency. As a team, the Timberwolves rank third in three-point conversion rate.
San Antonio’s Weakness on Defense
Minnesota’s new focus on shooting threes makes it match up excellently against the Spurs.
Guarding the perimeter is, like it was last year, San Antonio’s defensive weakness. The Spurs give up too many easy looks behind the arc, the third-most open three-point attempts, to be exact. San Antonio allowed over 106 points in one game this season, and that game was against a Dallas team that likes to shoot threes and that used three-point shooting to score 120 points.
Can The Spurs Keep Pace?
San Antonio has not reached 110 points in a game all season.
This is a team that will struggle to keep pace with one that is as potent as Minnesota now is. The Spurs are awful from behind the arc, whereas the Timberwolves anyhow do one of the best jobs of limiting open and wide-open attempts.
Minnesota ranks second at limiting made threes this year. As a result, a lot of pressure will be placed on the Spurs to score inside, but they’re more inefficient than most teams around the basket.
For the Timberwolves, four-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert is an elite rim protector who is tough to score on close to the hoop.
Takeaway
Expect Minnesota to overwhelm San Antonio’s vulnerable perimeter defense. The Spurs lack the firepower to keep pace.
This game will see the Spurs often try to make up for the three-pointers that they allow by trying to score two-pointers, but they won’t be efficient around the basket.
NBA Pick: Timberwolves -4 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
