NBA Best Bets for November 7: Timberwolves Are on the Prowl
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Rainman M.
- November 7, 2024
Top NBA Pick: Timberwolves -7.5 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for tonight’s slate of games.
Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Minnesota vs. Chicago and San Antonio vs. Portland. For your best bets, I will recommend investing in the Timberwolves and Spurs-Trail Blazers “Under.”
And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for daily betting advice. Today, our expert brings you another pick for the Trail Blazers vs. Spurs game and a pick for the Jazz vs. Bucks.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Chicago Bulls
Thursday, November 07, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at United Center
New-Look Minnesota
Matchup breakdowns of Minnesota look different this year because of its stylistic change.
This season, the Timberwolves are shooting way more threes. Whereas they attempted the 23rd-most threes last season, this year they are attempting the fifth-most. Shooting more threes is a smart strategy for the Timberwolves because they are clearly good at it. They rank third in three-point shooting percentage.
As one would expect, strong three-point shooting has played a significant role in their biggest wins. Most recently, they beat Charlotte by 21 points. In that game, they made 18 three-pointers.
Chicago’s Perimeter Defense
Because of Minnesota’s proclivity to shoot threes and the importance that strong three-point shooting holds for its outlook in a given game, it is crucial to assess the quality of Chicago’s perimeter defense.
I like Minnesota in this game because Chicago’s perimeter defense is poor.
Chicago’s defense really misses Alex Caruso, who is a characteristically excellent perimeter defender but who now plays for Oklahoma City. Partly due to Caruso’s departure, Chicago does an awful job of preventing teams from accruing favorable opportunities behind the arc.
The Bulls concede open three-point attempts with the fifth-highest frequency and wide-open ones with the seventh-highest frequency. These statistics show that they do a poor job of contesting opposing three-point attempts. Now, so far they have allowed a rather low conversion rate on these open and wide-open three-point attempts. But that is purely a matter of good fortune rather than of skill.
The point here is that they are at the mercy of opposing shooters. Rather than pray for them to continue to miss, it is endlessly more reasonable to expect them to start to take advantage of their opportunities, especially when they are the good shooters who play for Minnesota.
Chicago’s Offense
The Bulls’ offense resembles Minnesota’s in that it wants to shoot threes. This season, Chicago attempts the third-most three-pointers per game. However, Chicago’s offense is distinct from Minnesota’s in that the former shoots a lot of threes out of necessity.
Whereas the Timberwolves have strong inside scorers like superstar Anthony Edwards with his driving skills and Julius Randle with his post-up ability, Chicago is one of the least efficient teams within five feet of the opposing basket.
Minnesota’s Perimeter Defense
Minnesota’s defense will be in great shape if it can limit Chicago’s three-point shooting output, especially because the Bulls wouldn’t be able to rely on inside scoring.
I like the Timberwolves because they are one of the best teams at limiting open and wide-open three-point attempts. They are well-stocked with strong perimeter defenders who make it difficult for opposing three-point shooters to get favorable looks at the basket.
Takeaway
Minnesota will score a lot inside and especially outside the arc against a vulnerable Chicago defense.
Chicago has already been allowing over 120 points per game in its last three games. The Bulls, with their dependence on three-point shooting and given Minnesota’s strong perimeter defense, won’t keep pace. They will lose by double digits.
NBA Pick: Timberwolves -7.5 (-115) at BetOnline
Portland Trail Blazers vs. San Antonio Spurs
Thursday, November 07, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Frost Bank Center
Portland’s Defensive Focus
For its defense, Portland has prioritized strengthening its interior. This priority is evident in its decision to draft Donovan Clingan, a monstrous 7-2, 280-pound center known for his strong rim protection.
With Clingan and a defensive unit that likes to wall off the paint, the Trail Blazers are tough to score on inside. They are, statistically speaking, one of the best teams at limiting both field goals made and field goals attempted within five feet of the basket.
An offense with a favorable outlook against Portland is going to be one that does not rely on scoring inside and that shoots three-pointers efficiently.
The Spurs’ Unfavorable Outlook on Offense
San Antonio is built to struggle against the Trail Blazers’ defense. This is especially the case while starting shooting guard Devin Vassell remains injured.
So far, the Spurs rank an awful 27th in three-point efficiency. They cannot be expected to beat teams by relying on three-point shooting. Indeed, they strongly prefer to attempt field goals around the basket. However, they will struggle to score inside because of Portland’s defensive style and strong rim protection.
Portland’s Offense
Portland resembles San Antonio in its inability to shoot efficiently from behind the arc.
Currently, the Trail Blazers rank 21st in three-point efficiency. When you look at their players, this statistic makes sense. Small forward Deni Avdija, for example, is horribly inefficient from deep, but he does a great job of guarding in isolation and limiting the shot quality and field goal efficiency of his opponent.
As a team, Portland is also inefficient around the basket. Nevertheless, the Trail Blazers attempt the third-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
San Antonio’s Strong Defense
The Spurs’ defense will thrive against a team, like Portland, that primarily wants to score at the basket.
Led by center Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio has excellent rim protection. Last year, Wembanyama became the first rookie to be named a member of the All-Defensive First Team. Largely due to his efforts, the Spurs allow the seventh-lowest field-goal efficiency within five feet of the basket.
Takeaway
Points will be hard to come by in this game.
San Antonio primarily wants to score inside but will struggle to score against a Portland defense that walls off the paint and owns stout rim protection.
Portland, similar to San Antonio, shoots poorly from behind the arc. But the Trail Blazers are also inefficient inside the arc where the likes of Wembanyama will prolong their scoring woes.
NBA Pick: Under 217 (-105) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
