NBA Best Bets for November 8: Go for Three in Cleveland
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Jason Lake
- November 8, 2024
Top NBA Pick: Warriors/Cavaliers Over 227 (–110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Who will win this Friday when the Cleveland Cavaliers (9-0 SU, 8-1 ATS) host the Golden State Warriors (7-1 SU and ATS)? Danged if I know. Both these teams are on fire right now.
Having said that, the Dubs and Cavs have the Over at a combined 11-6 this year, and the Over is 72-64 (52.9%) league-wide as we go to press. So of course we’re going to hit up that manageable 227-point opening total on the NBA odds board at the top-rated sportsbooks. It’s a moral imperative.
And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for daily betting advice. Today, our expert brings you advice for the Warriors vs. Cavaliers and 76ers vs. Lakers matchups.
Golden State Warriors vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Friday, November 08, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse
Why Is the Over Doing So Well?
Here I was prepared to tell you that NBA officials are calling all sorts of ticky-tack fouls, but apparently that’s just because I’ve been watching the Toronto Raptors (26.2 personal fouls per game, No. 2 overall). During the season, the referees have been calling 18.7 personal fouls per team, down from 19.3 last year. That’s the lowest in the history of the league.
Team scoring is still pretty high, mind you, but not quite as high as before:
- 2024-25: 113.5 PPG
- 2023-24: 114.2 PPG
- 2022-23: 114.7 PPG
This year’s output ranks No. 11 all-time, two spots below the “modern” peak we reached two years ago; the NBA record is 118.8 ppg, set way back in 1961-62 when Wilt Chamberlain (50.4 ppg) was going nuts.
One thing we can say for sure: teams are jacking up more threes than ever before at 37.0 PPG, and making more than ever at 13.2 (35.7%). And with the league front-loading its 2024-25 schedule with cupcake matchups, leaving most of the good stuff for Christmas Day and beyond, teams like the 2-7 Raptors (Over 7-2) and 2-4 Washington Wizards (Over 4-2) are getting trucked on a nightly basis.
What About The Good Teams?
Most of them are shooting as many threes as possible. The defending champion Boston Celtics lead the way at 51.2 attempts per game; the Warriors (41.0) are fourth overall, while Cleveland (36.4) is in the middle of the pack at No. 17.
The faster you get up and down the court, the more threes you can shoot – but neither of our two featured teams is all that quick. The Cavs rank No. 10 in pace at 102.7 possessions per game, and the Dubs are No. 15 at 102.1.
Downtown Duel
It won’t be much of a track meet this Friday when 36-year-old Stephen Curry leads the Warriors into the Forest City, but as long as Curry keeps shooting 42.2% from downtown, it’s all good. Buddy Hield (50.7%), Moses Moody (48.6%), Draymond Green (43.5%) and Andrew Wiggins (40.6%) have also been filling it up this year.
The Cavs aren’t quite as blessed with 3-point shooters as Golden State, but they do have the most efficient offense in the league at 120.9 points per 100 possessions. The Dubs are third overall at 118.5. You may be familiar with Cleveland’s top guard, Donovan Mitchell (39.4%). He and his sidekicks Darius Garland (46.9%) and Caris LeVert (52.0%) have been deadly from downtown. Then again, the Cavs are anchored somewhat by the 6-foot-11 twin towers Evan Mobley (16 attempted threes this year) and Jarrett Allen (zero 3PA).
Keep in mind as well that both teams have quality defenses: No. 2 for Golden State (100.6 points allowed/100) and No. 6 for Cleveland (106.9).
The Pick
This is a high-profile matchup despite not being on national television, so there will be plenty of other Over bettors in the market. Protect yourself with a smaller bet size, and may the sphere be with you this Friday.
NBA Pick: Warriors/Cavaliers Over 227 (–110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
