NBA Best Bets for October 29: Defense Reigns In Tonight’s Late Game
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Rainman M.
- October 29, 2024
Top NBA Pick: Pelicans/Warriors Under 217 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for tonight’s action. I am interested in two games: Mavericks vs. Timberwolves and Pelicans vs. Warriors.
For your best bets, I recommend investing in the Mavericks and the Pelicans-Warriors “Under.”
Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Tuesday, October 29, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at Target Center
Recalling The Postseason
In last year’s playoffs, Dallas beat Minnesota in four of five games. The Mavericks did not simply shoot better than Minnesota. They had a clear matchup advantage.
With the personnel for both teams largely the same, nothing is going to change.
Let’s look at the decisive Game 5 more closely.
Pick Your Poison
This game followed one in which the Timberwolves won by five — which is the amount that they are favored by today — because they happened to be lights-out from behind the arc.
In Game 5, Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving for Dallas both amassed 36 points and five assists. They proved too difficult for Minnesota’s defenders to stay in front of. If Minnesota doubled Doncic, he would simply find Irving. The Mavericks now also have sharpshooter Klay Thompson to further bolster their offensive potential.
Doncic helped initiate lob city. When he’d penetrate inside by using a ball-screen, he’d put Minnesota center Rudy Gobert in awkward positions. If Gobert left his man at the basket, Doncic would lob it to him for an easy dunk. If Gobert remained at the basket, Doncic would knock down a short jumper.
Dallas’ Defensive Advantage
Whereas Doncic and Kyrie can beat their defenders one-on-one and put Minnesota’s defense in intolerable positions, Minnesota’s star cannot do the same to Dallas’ defense.
Anthony Edwards, characteristically, wants to attack the basket. As a player who primarily wants to drive inside, he must perceive Dallas’ scheme as a nightmare. The Mavericks like to wall off the paint. In that playoffs series, they also locked in on Edwards, forcing him to pass to less-talented teammates — whereas Doncic could gladly find Irving or vice versa.
Again, things remain the same from last year’s playoffs to this regular season, and statistics show what I mean. Within five feet of the basket, Dallas is still one of the best teams at limiting field goals made and attempted and at limiting field goal conversion rate. These three stats are proof of the continued success of their endeavor to wall off the paint.
Dallas’ scheme will have Minnesota’s offense suffer more strongly now than in the postseason because Julius Randle, who is replacing Karl-Anthony Towns, is more of an inside scorer than Towns, who is an able shooter. The Mavericks have the defenders inside the arc to punish Minnesota for this added focus on trying to score in this space.
Takeaway
One team is going to be comfortable on offense, and that team is Dallas.
The Mavericks will win because their stars will thrive whereas Minnesota’s offensive centerpiece will not.
NBA Pick: Dallas +5 (-115) at BetOnline
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Golden State Warriors
Tuesday, October 29, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at Chase Center
New Orleans’ Defensive Weakness
To be clear, it is a conceptual truth that every defense has a weakness, so I am not saying that the Pelicans have a weak defense. On the contrary, its weakness is still a kind of strong point.
New Orleans lacks a true rim protector. Its starting center, Daniel Theis, is vastly undersized at 6’8. Teams regularly try to attack the basket when they face the Pelicans. However, because Theis is a strong defender, they convert field goals within five feet of the basket at a low rate.
Still, teams would be likeliest to succeed on offense against the Pelicans if they had a strong center who was a dominant force inside. A guy like Joel Embiid would feast against the Pelicans.
Golden State’s Offense
Golden State is just the team that is not built to take advantage of New Orleans’ relative weakness. The Warriors themselves are undersized, with their starting center being 6’9.
They won’t, therefore, overpower the likes of Theis inside. Theis’ characteristically strong defense — his defensive rating is an incredible 95.6 right now — can help the Pelicans defend the space in front of the basket.
Instead of scoring inside, the Warriors primarily want to shoot threes. They attempt threes at the second-highest rate right now. Given this preference, their offense matches up best against a team whose defense does a poor job of defending the perimeter.
New Orleans’ Stout Perimeter Defense
Three-point conversion stats are misleading because they are, to an extent, luck-based. We have to account for that luck.
New Orleans’ perimeter defense has been unlucky in the sense that the wide-open three-point attempts that it has allowed — every team allows wide-open three-point attempts — have been converted at a rate that is much higher than usual.
No Easy Threes
What is important, because it says everything you need to know about the quality of a team’s perimeter defense, is that the Pelicans are one of the best teams at limiting wide-open three-point attempts. They match up well against Golden State’s offense because the Warriors want to shoot threes but will fail to find many propitious shooting opportunities.
Even Brandon Ingram has become a reliable defender — as evident in his strong defensive rating — in a team whose players are motivated to invest effort in defense. Ingram as a wing defender is particularly bothersome with his impressive length at 6-8. There’s also Jose Alvarado, a feisty defender who is known for amassing steals.
Herbert Jones is, of course, the team’s top defender. He guards the team’s best player and is regarded as one of the NBA’s top defenders. He was an All-NBA Defensive First Team selection last year.
Golden State’s Injured Players
For Golden State, Stephen Curry, the team’s sharpshooter, will not play in this game as he nurses an ankle injury. Andrew Wiggins, who adds a lot of inside scoring, is listed as a game-time decision with a back injury.
Both players are, by far, two of their team’s three leading scorers. Their injuries thus deal a significant blow to their offense’s ceiling.
CJ McCollum, Zion Williamson and Company
New Orleans’ key offensive duo, CJ McCollum and Zion Williamson, will struggle in this game.
Zion primarily wants to thrive in the paint, but Golden State is a team that walls off the paint, which is why the Warriors allow such a low rate of field goals within five feet of the basket. Because the relatively small Warriors have to devote added focus to protecting the basket, they are vulnerable to a team that is strong from behind the arc.
The Warriors do have strong individual defenders besides annual All-NBA Defensive Team selection Draymond Green, who is amazingly versatile. McCollum’s counterpart on the Warriors, Brandin Podziemski, has created a splash in the Warriors’ fan community for his impressive defense. He lacks height but McCollum at 6-3 doesn’t have the size to take advantage.
New Orleans anyhow struggles to convert three-pointers. The Pelicans’ low shooting percentage fails to compel defenses to respect them behind the arc, which limits the space for guys like Zion inside. To be exact, the Pelicans rank 19th in three-point shooting percentage, but they also have the disadvantage of trying to convert threes on the road tonight.
Takeaway
This will be a defensive battle in which each team’s top scorers either struggle to score or miss the game due to injury.
Both teams bring focused defending led by individual studs like Alvarado and Jones for New Orleans and Golden State’s team-led ability to limit scoring at the basket. New Orleans lacks the three-point shooting ability to hurt the Warriors’ defense just like Golden State lacks the size and ability inside to hurt the Pelicans’ defense.
NBA Pick: Pelicans/Warriors Under 217 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
