NBA Best Bets for January 12: Let’s Celebrate Paolo Banchero Being Back
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Rainman M.
- January 12, 2025
Join us as we take a look at the latest NBA odds for today’s basketball action, where three games in particular interest me as worth investing in: Nuggets vs. Mavericks, Kings vs. Bulls, and 76ers vs. Magic.
Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks
Sunday, January 12, 2025 – 03:00 PM ET at American Airlines Center
Denver’s Poor Defense
This game will be a great one for player props because it promises to feature a lot of points. In the Nuggets’ two previous games against the Mavs, both of which were in Denver, the Nuggets allowed 120 and 123 points, respectively.
The Nuggets rank below average in defensive rating, as opposing offenses consistently find more ways to score on them.
Shooting Guards
Specifically shooting guards thrive against Denver’s defense. The Nuggets’ season-long struggle with opposing shooting guards has been evident in their most recent games; Brooklyn’s Keon Johnson, for example, averages 8.4 points per game but scored 22 in Denver in the Nuggets’ last game.
Two games ago, the Nuggets allowed Norman Powell of the Clippers to score 30 points, which exceeds his points-per-game average by 6.3 points.
Quentin Grimes
I like Quentin Grimes because he is the top active shooting guard in Dallas’ depth chart. With Kyrie Irving out and fellow guard Luka Doncic likewise sidelined, Grimes is called upon to step up. Dallas’ points obviously have to come from somewhere.
Aided by lack of scoring competition from his beleaguered team, Grimes is averaging 17.6 points per game in January, whereas he averages 10.5 points per game on the season because he spent time as previously healthy Irving’s backup. Denver is just the opponent for him to continue scoring a lot of points.
NBA Pick: Quentin Grimes Over 14.5 Points (-102) at BetOnline
Sacramento Kings vs. Chicago Bulls
Sunday, January 12, 2025 – 03:30 PM ET at United Center
The New Kings
Since the Kings fired their head coach and promoted Doug Christie to the interim head coach position, they have improved radically, and we want to profit from this improvement before oddsmakers adjust. But oddsmakers are slow to adjust, and so the Kings have covered the spread in each of their last four games.
Led by Christie, they enter today’s game on a six-game winning streak. Each of their six wins came by at least five points. Three of them came by ten or more points.
Sacramento’s Improved Perimeter Defense
Since the coaching change, the Kings have improved their perimeter defense. They are allowing fewer favorable three-point opportunities and fewer made threes.
Their improved perimeter defense has led them to have their best games against teams that rely more heavily on making three-pointers.
Against a Celtics team that, besides again being one of the NBA’s best teams this season, attempts the most threes, they won by 17 in Boston. Likewise, they won in Golden State by 30 points. The Warriors attempt the fourth-most threes per game.
I like Sacramento’s defense tonight because the Bulls attempt the second-most threes per game. As evident in their performance against Boston and Golden State, both of whom they held to below 100 points largely by shutting down their three-point attack, their defense is well-constructed to dismantle a team that relies heavily on making threes.
Sacramento’s More Well-Rounded Offense
It is impossible to like the Bulls when you don’t like their offense, because their defense is so bad. It ranks 23rd in defensive rating.
Sacramento has normally relied on thriving inside the arc, with guys like mid-range maestro DeMar DeRozan, versatile guard Malik Monk, and center Domantas Sabonis. As evident in Monk’s last game, they are able to score a lot of points even when their three-point shots aren’t falling.
But now the Kings, overall, are making more three-pointers. With guys like sizzling Keegan Murray, Kevin Huerter, and others who reliably step up, they are making the second-most three-pointers in the span of their last three games.
They have been scoring a lot of points even with star speedster De’Aaron Fox injured, although he is listed as ‘questionable’ for today’s game and might be ready to return.
Takeaway
Chicago’s three-point-oriented attack lacks the firepower against Sacramento’s improved defense to keep pace. The Kings have one of the best offenses, whereas Chicago has one of the worst defenses, and Sacramento’s offense is now more well-rounded.
The spread seems like a joke to me, as oddsmakers still haven’t adjusted for how good the Kings are now following their coaching change.
NBA Pick: Kings -3.5 (-115) at BetOnline
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Orlando Magic
Sunday, January 12, 2025 – 06:00 PM ET at Kia Center
Paolo Banchero’s Return Was Badly Needed
Orlando’s offense has been struggling. Right now, it misses the Wagner brothers and starting point guard Jalen Suggs.
Those three players are, besides Paolo Banchero, the only three Magic players who average at least ten points per game. Combined, those three players average 53.7 points per game.
Banchero is the team’s leading scorer, with 29.8 points per game. His return gives the offense a badly needed source of reliable scoring. He is able to be that source of scoring because he is not rusty. In his first game back, he scored 34 points in all of 27 minutes of play against a Milwaukee team that features great rim protection in the form of center Brook Lopez plus elite help defender Giannis.
Philadelphia’s Defensive Vulnerability
I like Banchero to score a lot tonight also because the 76ers prove especially vulnerable to the opposing team’s top scorer (when he is playing). Most recently, they allowed CJ McCollum of the Pelicans to amass 38 points.
They benefited in some games from key absences, permitted Phoenix’s Kevin Durant to be highly efficient in a 23-point output, and allowed Steph Curry to accumulate 30 points, which is 7.4 more points per game than Curry averages.
Takeaway
Whereas a guy like Durant has to compete, for points, with a good guard in Bradley Beal and a star in Devin Booker, Banchero has negligible competition for points.
Asking him to score more points than Durant did feels like a super modest ask also given his great form and Philadelphia’s repeated vulnerability to team-leading scorers.
NBA Pick: Paolo Banchero Over 23.5 Points (-130) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
