NBA Best Bets for January 18: Offenses Are Thriving in Portland
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Rainman M.
- January 18, 2025
NBA Pick: Rockets-Trail Blazers Over 225 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Let’s take a look at the current odds for tonight’s NBA action, where two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: 76ers vs. Pacers and Rockets vs. Trail Blazers.
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Indiana Pacers
Saturday, January 18, 2025 – 07:00 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Philadelphia Misses Joel Embiid
Without star center Joel Embiid, the 76ers are suffering a 1-5 run. Their one win came, by all of six points, at home against pathetic Washington.
They stayed within single digits in their games against 11-32 New Orleans, against an offensively challenged Orlando team that was abysmal behind the arc, and in their last game, against the Knicks, in which their role players played exceptionally well.
Pressure on Tyrese Maxey
Without Embiid, who averages 24.4 points per game, tremendous scoring and play-making pressure is placed on point guard Tyrese Maxey. In Philadelphia’s last game, for example, Maxey attempted at least twelve more shots than any of his teammates.
Indiana’s Improved Defense
The Pacers match up well against a Philadelphia offense that employs the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type with the ninth-highest frequency. For comparison’s sake, the Pistons, whom Indiana just held to 100 points in its eleven-point win in Detroit, run this play type with the eighth-highest frequency.
Maxey relies extensively on this play type, so his outlook, as well as his team’s overall offense, is negative against the Pacers given the quality of their ball-screen defense. They allow the eighth-fewest PPP (points per play) against this play type.
Indiana’s defense is all the stronger with the return of Aaron Nesmith, who is commonly tasked with guarding the opposing team’s best scorer. Nesmith is a strong defender, who helped limit Detroit point guard Cade Cunningham while playing fewer minutes than he could have played.
Outlook for Indiana’s Offense
Philadelphia’s entire defense is significantly weaker without annual Defensive Player of the Year candidate Embiid.
Embiid, a seven-footer, is a monstrous presence in the paint who deters and contests opposing shot attempts inside the arc and allows his teammates to guard the perimeter more closely. Without him, opposing offenses minus deficient Orlando and Washington are regularly efficient both inside and outside the arc.
Indiana has been hovering around 110 points in its most recent games merely because it has faced average-to-good defenses, but now it gets a softer test in Philadelphia, which already ranks below-average in defensive rating and really struggles without Embiid.
Led by Tyrese Haliburton at point guard, the Pacers have a well-rounded offense that features strong scorers around the basket, such as Pascal Siakam, a versatile center in Myles Turner, and a three-level scorer in Andrew Nembhard, who also operates as secondary ball-handler.
Player to Target for Prop Bets
Keep an eye on Haliburton. Dating to last year, he has scored 32, 22, 33, and 25 points in four respective games against the 76ers.
You should feel very comfortable with the “over” on his point total as long as oddsmakers list a number below 20 points.
NBA Pick: Tyrese Haliburton Over 17.5 Points (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The Spread Pick
The Pacers are 7-1 in January. They are red-hot. All of their seven wins have been by double digits, including a win over Cleveland. Their only loss came in their rematch against Cleveland.
Conversely, Philadelphia is losing a lot of games by a lot of points. It really misses Embiid.
Indiana is making an upward run in the Eastern Conference standings that Philadelphia lacks the means to obstruct.
Led by their strong ball-screen defense and their well-rounded offense, the Pacers will dominate Philly tonight.
NBA Pick: Pacers -8 (-110) at BetOnline
Houston Rockets vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Saturday, January 18, 2025 – 10:00 PM ET at Moda Center
Houston’s Weakness on Defense
Houston is favored heavily in this game because, overall, it has a great defense. But, when breaking down a game, we can’t assess teams based on their overall qualities because the matchup considerations that decide the outcome of a given game call for more specific distinctions.
The Rockets thrive on defense, especially when they guard the perimeter. They are especially likely to do well against an offense that relies on shooting three-pointers. However, they are much worse on defense when they are tasked with guarding their basket.
Center Alperen Sengun is not much of a rim-protector or shot-blocker, so he leaves the Rockets vulnerable in front of the basket.
Portland’s Offense Will Attack the Basket
Houston’s defense won’t appear strong tonight because Portland doesn’t like to attempt three-pointers and, therefore, the Rockets won’t get to flex the quality of their perimeter defense. Instead, the Trail Blazers primarily want to attack the basket. They attempt the third-most field goals per game within five feet of the basket.
As evident in its last game against Denver, where the Nuggets were very efficient inside the arc, and in its struggle to eke out a win over 10-32 Toronto, Houston’s defense struggles against offenses that prioritize scoring around the basket.
Whereas the Trail Blazers struggled to score against Heat and Clippers teams that allow few points within five feet of the basket, they scored over 110 points against Brooklyn, Dallas, and New Orleans teams that are more vulnerable within five feet of the basket.
One should expect them to comfortably replicate Toronto’s ability to reach 110 points against the Rockets.
Houston Will Likewise Score A Lot
Portland’s rim protection is even worse than Houston’s. Center Deandre Ayton is a poor defender, as his defensive rating shows. He has been criticized much over the years for his poor defense, and he is a big reason why Portland allows the sixth-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
This is the space in which Houston wants to live. The Rockets are already hot, having scored at least 119 points in each of their last six games and at least 120 in each of their last three games.
Led by sizzling Jalen Green with his 30.3 points-per-game average in January, the Rockets have great inside scoring.
They make the sixth-most field goals per game within five feet of the basket and will continue to rely especially on scoring in this space in order to remain so productive.
Player Prop
With Tyler Herro of Miami being one recent example, opposing shooting guards thrive against Portland’s defense. Green is already hot. He is Houston’s shooting guard and boasts a terrific outlook tonight.
You should look to attack his point total “over” as long as oddsmakers list it at below 28 points.
NBA Pick: Jalen Green Over 30 Points (+250) at Bovada
Takeaway
Portland’s defense with its awful rim protection can’t stop Houston’s offense, which wants to attack the basket.
The Trail Blazers, though, will also have great success on offense because their strength on offense is something that they can flex against Houston’s vulnerable interior defense.
For the above reasons, expect both teams to combine for well over 230 points.
NBA Pick: Over 225 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
