NBA Best Bets for January 19: Milwaukee Is Clicking on All Cylinders
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Rainman M.
- January 19, 2025
Top NBA Pick: Bucks -11 (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The sportsbooks have released their betting odds for today’s NBA action, so let’s take a look and find our top three picks of the day, featuring three games: Spurs vs. Heat, Nuggets vs. Magic, and 76ers vs. Bucks.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Miami Heat
Sunday, January 19, 2025 – 03:00 PM ET at Kaseya Center
Stephon Castle’s Improvement
Oddsmakers are slow to adjust to San Antonio shooting guard Stephon Castle‘s growth.
Castle was the fourth overall pick of the latest NBA Draft. He was smartly assessed as a very talented player. But he has needed time to acclimate himself to professional basketball and to develop as a professional player.
Before January, he sometimes achieved 20-point performances. He had never achieved them in consecutive games. Now, he has scored 20+ points in three straight games. Castle is clearly turning a corner, and yet oddsmakers are treating him as if he hasn’t. The posted over/under for his point total is still so far below 20.
Castle’s Opponent Today
Miami is a great opponent for Castle to score a lot of points against. Castle, despite his uptick in minutes and production, is listed as San Antonio’s backup shooting guard, but backup shooting guards thrive against the Heat.
In Miami’s last game, they allowed 14 points to Denver’s Julian Strawther, who is averaging 9.7 points per game. Two games ago, Miami allowed Gabe Vincent of the Lakers, who is scoring 4.7 points per game, to accumulate 14 points.
Clearly, Castle’s outlook against the Heat is terrific.
NBA Pick: Stephon Castle Over 14.5 Points (-105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Denver Nuggets vs. Orlando Magic
Sunday, January 19, 2025 – 06:00 PM ET at Kia Center
Orlando’s Excellent Defense
The Magic are great underdogs in this game because of their top-caliber defense. It is true that they gave up a lot of points in their last two games, against Milwaukee and Boston, respectively, but their opponents happened to perform incredibly from behind the arc. Those games were also on the road.
Orlando allows 5.2 fewer points in home games than in road games, although they recently still held the Knicks with their second-best offensive rating to 94 points in New York.
Overall, the Magic allow 104.1 points per game, which is second-fewest, but they allow 101.4 points per home game.
Importance of Magic Rim Protection
Part of Orlando’s overall success on defense is its ability to limit easy points. The easiest points for a team come at the basket, and the Magic does a great job of limiting those points. They allow the fourth-fewest field goal attempts and the fourth-fewest makes within five feet of the basket.
This matters because Denver, by a clear margin, attempts the most field goals within this space. Whereas the Nuggets are allergic to attempting three-pointers, they are determined to score in the space where Orlando’s defense mounts fierce resistance.
Orlando Can Score
Denver’s defense is vastly inferior to Orlando’s. The Nuggets have struggled against the worst offenses, allowing, for example, 122 points to a Washington team that ranks last in offensive rating. With Paolo Banchero back, Orlando has a star scorer to amass points, especially near the basket.
The Magic prefer to score in this space, where they’ll encounter negligible resistance from a Denver team that lacks effective rim protectors and, accordingly, allows teams to score a lot near the basket.
Takeaway
The home dog is also the team with the best defense. Orlando will have the easiest time scoring with the likes of Banchero facing a Denver interior defense that is much weaker than his own team’s.
NBA Pick: Magic +6 (-105) at BetOnline
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Sunday, January 19, 2025 – 07:00 PM ET at Fiserv Forum
Philadelphia’s Struggles
Philadelphia is worth fading without its star center, Joel Embiid, who when healthy is always likely to score 30 points and is an annual Defensive Player of the Year candidate. Without him, the 76ers are suffering a 1-6 run.
They most recently gave up 115 points to an Indiana team that started slow out of the gates and underachieved from behind the arc. Philadelphia misses Embiid’s presence in the interior.
Outlook for Milwaukee
Milwaukee enters today’s game on a three-game winning streak, during which it is clicking on all cylinders. The Bucks have won each of their last three games by 15 points. They have one of the best inside scorers in Giannis. He will help the Bucks amass points in the painted area.
On defense, Milwaukee excels at preventing points around the basket largely because Brook Lopez is an effective interior defender while annual Defensive Player of the Year candidate Giannis brings elite help-side defense.
The Bucks allow the seventh-fewest points within five feet of the basket, but they also won’t allow many three-pointers against a Philadelphia team that has struggled all season to make them.
Takeaway
Milwaukee is reliably exceeding 120 points and faces minimal resistance from a Philadelphia defense that misses its best defender and key rim protector.
The 76ers need to score inside the arc because they have the fifth-worst three-point conversion rate, but they’ll be limited inside by Milwaukee’s focus on limiting points around the basket and the Lopez-Giannis duo. Philadelphia consistently struggles to reach 100 points and will struggle to do so again today.
NBA Pick: Bucks -11 (-105) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
