NBA Best Bets for January 4: The Clippers Are Home Again
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Rainman M.
- January 4, 2025
NBA Pick: Clippers -6 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The sportsbooks have released their betting odds for today’s NBA action, and two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Timberwolves vs. Pistons and Hawks vs. Clippers.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Detroit Pistons
Saturday, January 04, 2025 – 07:00 PM ET at Little Caesars Arena
Detroit’s Crucial Absence
The Pistons miss key combo guard Jaden Ivey, who is recovering from a broken fibula.
Ivey’s injury is significant to their offense because he is their second-leading scorer and he has the second-most assists on their team. He is a highly valuable scorer, ball-handler, and distributor. His absence is crucial because Detroit lacks alternative means of generating offense and producing points.
So far, the Pistons played one game without Ivey. While they won that game, it creates tremendous pessimism for their outlook especially in the near future, as it will take time to adjust to life without Ivey, although this offense cannot become as effective without him as it was with him.
Most recently, they beat Charlotte. But they scored all of 98 points despite the fact that Charlotte gives up over 112 points per game.
Detroit surely wouldn’t have even been competitive with the Hornets if Charlotte’s two starting guards, who average a combined total of 51 points per game, weren’t likewise absent.
The Pistons Depend Exceedingly on One Player
The Pistons now rely extensively on point guard Cade Cunningham. He is their only ball-handler who can reliably get into the paint and generate offense either for himself or for others.
Without Ivey, defenses are able to target Cunningham, such as by trapping him, because they know that Detroit lacks a secondary ball-handler and a secondary scorer to take the load of generating offense off of Cunningham’s burdened shoulders.
Without Ivey’s dribble penetration, not only do the Pistons miss his scoring prowess, but Ivey’s teammates also miss scoring opportunities for themselves, which Ivey’s individual actions help generate.
Minnesota’s Focused Defense
Detroit failed to reach 100 points against Charlotte’s defense, even though the Hornets rank below average in defensive rating.
The Pistons can only hope that the Timberwolves will lack focus on defense. Minnesota has a great defense — its defense ranks seventh in defensive rating. But the Timberwolves are going to be focused tonight because they are coming off two losses.
Those two losses came to excellent Thunder and Celtics teams. Winning will come easy for the Timberwolves as they face an obviously inferior Detroit team, which has a losing record.
Minnesota’s Shooting Prowess
Whereas the Pistons will fail to reach 100 points, Minnesota will thrive on offense. The Timberwolves, this year, primarily want to shoot three-pointers. They attempt the sixth-most per game. Their shot profile is intelligent because they are a good shooting team. Led by multiple efficient guards, especially superstar Anthony Edwards, they rank fifth in three-point percentage.
Minnesota’s shooting prowess will be on display against a Detroit perimeter defense that has struggled incessantly.
The Pistons most lately haven’t seemed so bad on defense because they are coming off two games against a beleaguered Charlotte offense that ranks 23rd in three-point percentage and against an Orlando offense that ranks last in the category.
Conversely, three games ago the Pistons faced a Denver team that made 13 of its 27 three-point attempts en route to a 134-point output. Minnesota will inflict similar damage.
The Pick
This is a great “get-right” game for Minnesota. Coming off two losses, the Timberwolves will lock in and demolish an inferior and debilitated opponent.
Without Ivey, Detroit lacks the personnel to challenge the Timberwolves’ defense, whereas on offense Minnesota’s three-point-oriented attack will feel immensely comfortable.
NBA Pick: Timberwolves -7 (-115) at BetOnline
Atlanta Hawks vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Saturday, January 04, 2025 – 10:30 PM ET at Intuit Dome
Key Trend
The Clippers are in a great spot tonight because they are returning home after losing on the road. This season, they are 3-0 ATS in their first home game that directly followed a road loss.
Most recently, they beat Utah at home 144-107 directly after they lost at Denver. In the other two times in which they were in this situation, they covered the spread against the Jazz (again) and upset Denver.
Los Angeles Returns Key Players
This will also be an exciting game for the Clippers because, not only do they welcome back key guard James Harden after he missed their last game with a minor groin injury, but Kawhi Leonard will also make his season debut. Harden is just fine — he is not even listed on the injury report.
The key distributor and scorer will pair well with the six-time All-Star Leonard, who is a well-reputed all-around scorer who uses his amazing length to be an elite defender.
Los Angeles’ Rim Protection
On defense, though, perhaps the most important player for the Clippers tonight will be center Ivica Zubac.
Zubac is a terrific rim protector who excels at limiting the field goal percentage of opponents. Largely thanks to him, the Clippers are one of the best teams at deterring opponents from attempting field goals within five feet of the basket. They also rank tenth at limiting field goals in this space. Their opponents often don’t even dare to attack the basket when they see Zubac patrolling the rim.
Yet the Hawks lack alternatives. They primarily want to attack the basket — they attempt the third-most field goals per game within five feet of the basket. Los Angeles’ rim protection will ensure that they struggle on offense.
The Clippers on Offense
At home, the Clippers are one of the most efficient teams from deep. Their three-point conversion rate at home is 38.1 percent, which would tie them for fourth-best overall.
They will continue to thrive from deep at home against an Atlanta defense that is one of the worst at limiting both open and wide-open three-point attempts.
The Hawks reliably allow opposing teams to thrive from deep, but with stars like Harden and Leonard the Clippers will also flourish inside the arc.
The Pick
This is a great spot for the Clippers, whose collection of scorers on offense and defensive ability will ensure a blowout victory for them over a very vulnerable Atlanta team.
NBA Pick: Clippers -6 (-115) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
