NBA Best Bets for January 5: Golden State Is Ready For Battle
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Rainman M.
- January 5, 2025
Top NBA Pick: Warriors -3 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top Sportsbooks have released their betting odds for today’s NBA action.
Three games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Jazz vs. Magic, Lakers vs. Rockets, and Kings vs. Warriors.
For your Best Bets, I will recommend Jazz and Jazz team total “over,” Fred VanVleet point total “over,” and Warriors.
Utah Jazz vs. Orlando Magic
Sunday, January 05, 2025 – 06:30 PM ET at Kia Center
Utah’s Point Total Trend
It might seem obvious to play a team’s point total “under” when it ranks low on offense and faces a high-ranking defense — the Magic rank third in defensive rating. But the data tells us otherwise in Utah’s case.
The Jazz have played four games against teams that rank top-five in defensive rating. They scored 106 against the Thunder, 105 and 107 in two respective games against the Clippers, and 124 against the Grizzlies.
Utah’s Improving Offense
The Jazz are improving on offense because they are figuring out ways to turn their young scorers into significantly effective contributors.
In November, Kyle Filipowski‘s minute increase caused Utah’s offense to become more productive. Last month, Utah’s offense became more efficient when Keyonte George was on the court. This month, Brice Sensabaugh is stepping up, having most recently dropped 34 points on the Heat.
With these coalescing young scorers, the Jazz have scored over 110 points in five of their last six games, including 113 points against Cleveland’s tough defense.
Orlando’s Beleaguered Offense
The Magic enter tonight’s game having failed to exceed 96 points in three of their last five games. In the two exceptions, they scored 102 against Brooklyn’s awful defense and relied on one of their rare strong three-point shooting nights to muster 106 against Toronto.
Tonight, they will miss their top two shooting guards and maybe also their point guard. They also miss their top two scorers, Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero, to long-term injuries. Overall, their top four scorers are injured. Their top scorer right now is Goga Bitadze, who averages 9.9 points per game.
Takeaway
Whereas Utah will blow past 100 points, the Magic in their current beleaguered state will struggle to reach this point total.
In addition to betting on the Jazz, you should play the Jazz team total “over” as high as 104.5.
NBA Pick: Jazz +6.5 (-110) at BetOnline
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Houston Rockets
Sunday, January 05, 2025 – 07:00 PM ET at Toyota Center
Point Guards Against The Lakers
Point guards are thriving against the Lakers’ defense. Most recently, Atlanta’s Trae Young scored 33 points against the Lakers. Two games ago, Portland’s Anfernee Simons scored 23 points against them.
In their last games, the Lakers have conceded high point totals, likewise, to Detroit’s Cade Cunningham, Golden State’s Steph Curry, and Sacramento’s De’Aaron Fox.
I expect Houston’s Fred VanVleet to continue the trend. The Rockets really depend on him because they lack quality and proven depth at the point guard position. He is an established veteran who can give them effective scoring both inside and outside the arc.
NBA Pick: Fred VanVleet Over 15.5 Points (-107) at BetOnline
Sacramento Kings vs. Golden State Warriors
Sunday, January 5, 2025 – 08:30 PM ET at Chase Center
Golden State Wants to Shoot Threes
The Warriors primarily want to shoot threes. They attempt the fourth-most per game.
One can count on them to thrive from behind the arc as long as sharpshooter Steph Curry is healthy. While Curry did not play yesterday, his head coach likes to preserve him from playing both legs of a back-to-back.
So, the expectation is that he will be fully ready to go tonight. He will be fresh.
Golden State’s Key Matchup Advantage
As a team that loves to shoot threes and is good at making them — the Warriors make the fourth-most per game — Golden State matches up well against a Sacramento defense that allows the second-most three-pointers per game.
The Kings do a poor job of running teams off the three-point line, as evidenced by the high number of three-point attempts that they allow. In large part because they regularly give minutes to poor defenders like DeMar DeRozan, opposing teams are able to procure a lot of good looks from deep.
Each of Sacramento’s last six opponents thrived from deep. Even regularly poor shooting teams like the 76ers and Lakers achieved solid three-point conversion rates when they played against the Kings.
Sacramento’s Key Absence
The Kings will likely miss De’Aaron Fox tonight, who is listed as ‘doubtful’ with a right glute contusion. This will be the first game that Sacramento plays without Fox.
Last year showed that Sacramento struggles to adjust to life without Fox. For example, when he missed five games to begin November last season, the Kings scored 101, 89, and 97 points in their first three respective games without him.
Fox is immensely important to their offense. He scores 5.9 more points per game than any of his teammates. He is also their top assist-getter. Sacramento depends on his ability to get into the paint, which opens up the offense — including three-point shooting opportunities for his teammates. The Kings also depend on his pace — Fox is notoriously quick.
Without him, the Kings on offense are sluggish and inefficient, whereas Golden State’s three-point-oriented attack will thrive tonight.
NBA Pick: Warriors -3 (-115) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
