NBA Best Bets for March 17: The Nuggets Meet the Warriors in a Potential Playoff Preview
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Spread Astaire
- March 18, 2025
Top NBA Pick: Denver Nuggets +4.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
As the season comes to a fast and furious conclusion, we have exciting matchups tonight in the NBA. First, a long time Eastern Conference rivalry writes its next page when the Miami Heat head to New York to take on the Knicks.
Then, two of the hottest teams in the league take the floor when the Golden State Warriors host the Denver Nuggets. When these two exciting games tip off, who should you back to make winning NBA picks?
Let’s analyze the latest NBA odds from top sportsbooks before placing your bets!
Miami Heat vs. New York Knicks
Monday, March 17, 2025 – 07:30 PM EDT at Madison Square Garden
Struggling Rivals Collide
Two struggling rivals will look to turn things around when they take the floor in Madison Square Garden tonight. The Miami Heat have been in a free fall and they have lost seven games in a row.
The New York Knicks are returning home after a West Coast road trip where they lost three of their five games. Not only did they lose games, but they also lost their star guard Jalen Brunson to injury. The Knicks will be looking to solidify their playoff position with a win over their rival tonight.
The Miami Heat hope that jettisoning malcontent player Jimmy Butler would lead to a revival of their culture. However, since trading Butler, the Heat have been unable to win games as evidenced by this seven game losing streak. They are 4-14 since the trade.
No Butler, No Brunson
At the time of the Butler trade, Miami was in sixth place in the East. They are currently in 9th place and are only one game ahead of the Chicago Bulls. Miami needs to turn things around or quickly or this season will be deemed a disaster.
Not only has Miami been losing, they’ve been getting blown out. Of their last 14 losses, seven of them have been by double digits.
Without Brunson and the lineup, the Knicks have definitely had problems on offense. Since losing Brunson, their average points per game is down 7.7. They had a season low 94 points in their loss to the Golden State Warriors on Saturday night.
I am looking to fade the Heat for pretty much the rest of the regular season, however, I hate betting teams on the first game back on a road trip. A lot of times, teams on their first game home on a road trip are still carrying the fatigue.
Takeaway
These two teams have each covered the spread once against each other. Both games went over in the two times they faced so far.
As much as I’d like to bet the Knicks, I think the over is the better play. The Knicks role players should perform better at home, all we need is Miami to keep pace.
While that might be a tough task, the Knicks’ defense has not been excellent lately, and with one of the lowest totals on the board, we do not need a huge output for Miami. When these two long time rivals face off, take the over.
NBA Pick: Heat-Knicks Over 210.5 (-110) at BetOnline
Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors
Monday, March 17, 2025 – 10:00 PM EDT at Chase Center
Butler’s Impact
The beneficiaries of the aforementioned Jimmy Butler trade are the Golden State Warriors. While the Heat has struggled since trading Butler, Golden State has done well. The Warriors are 14-2 since acquiring Butler.
The way the Warriors have played with Butler in the lineup makes them look like a contender to win the West. However, they will face another top contender tonight, the Denver Nuggets, who are currently in third place in the West. If the season ended today, these two teams would meet in the first round of the playoffs.
The Nuggets have had the Warriors’ number. The Nuggets have beaten the Warriors eight straight times. Their most recent matchup was a 119-115 win in Denver in December.
The Warriors are currently 3.5 games behind the Nuggets so a win tonight would be crucial for them to move up in the standings.
Can Golden State Solve the Nuggets Puzzle?
The addition of Butler has given the Warriors more space on the offensive end. Although Butler is not known for his 3-point shooting, his ability to convert in the post and draw fouls has been huge for Steph Curry.
Because Butler is so strong in the lane, Curry has a more open perimeter to look for his jump shot. I wasn’t sure about the fit when it started, but current results show that Jimmy Butler and Steph Curry work together fantastic as a pair.
Like every other team in the league, The Warriors will have no answer for Nikola Jokic. The Warriors will be reliant on keeping the other players in check in order to win. The Warriors have not been able to do that in the last two seasons. With Butler on the perimeter will tonight be different?
Takeaway
The Nuggets are third in the league in points scored at 121.2. Golden State will need an excellent effort on the defensive end in order to win tonight.
As exciting as the Warriors’ current win streak is, the play tonight is on Denver. 4.5 points is simply too much for one of the best teams in the West.
I expect a close game and the Warriors will probably come out on top. But it will be a close margin of victory and the Denver Nuggets will cover. In our exciting evening nightcap, take the Denver Nuggets +4.5.
NBA Pick: Denver Nuggets +4.5 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
