NBA Best Bets for November 12: Milwaukee Misses Dame Tonight

Atlanta’s Awful Defense

There is no question here that Boston will score a lot of points. As measured by defensive rating, Atlanta has one of the NBA’s worst defenses.

In their last two games, for example, the Hawks have allowed 125 points to Chicago and 122 points to Detroit.

Those are by no means elite offenses, and yet they each managed to amass a high-scoring total against the Hawks’ defense.

Atlanta’s Perimeter Defense

In terms of how Atlanta’s defense matches up with Boston, the Hawks’ perimeter defense is particularly important to assess. This is because Boston loves to shoot threes: the Celtics attempt, by far, the most three-pointers per game.

They average 51.3 three-point attempts per game, which is almost six more than any other team.

Atlanta has a uniquely vulnerable perimeter defense, one that will be further hurt by the absence of De’Andre Hunter, who with his length and strong footwork has always been known for his great defense.

The Hawks allow the fourth-most wide-open three-point attempts per game. Moreover, they allow the most three-point attempts per game.

These statistics indicate that they do a terrible job of running shooters off the three-point line and of contesting three-point attempts.

Celtics Shooters

Boston’s players will easily procure favorable three-point shot attempts against Atlanta’s porous defense. Look out, among others, for Derrick White and Payton Pritchard. Both players convert over 40% of their three-point attempts while attempting three-pointers at a high rate.

It is an extremely good sign for Boston’s offense when the outlook for lower-profile scorers like White and Pritchard is so positive.

Boston can always lean on the likes of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, both of whom have been selected to numerous All-Star teams, to score a lot of points. Tonight, Tatum is a game-time decision with his ankle injury, but Boston won’t need him to score a lot of points tonight.

The Celtics were able to score over 120 points against Atlanta when Brown was hurt. Evidently, they have plenty of scoring depth.

But I also have no idea why Tatum would miss tonight’s game, because he was able to play through his injury and thrive in his team’s last game.

Atlanta’s Offense

Atlanta will score more than enough points to help the game go “over” the total.

Its preference on offense, scoring at the basket, is a key reason why. The Hawks attempt the fourth-most field goals within five feet of the basket.

Clint Capela, Dyson Daniels and multiple other Hawk players are efficient scorers at the basket. The plurality of efficient Hawks scorers should assuage any concern that Atlanta’s absences tonight might pose to its ability to score enough points tonight — a concern that is further assuaged by the aforementioned fact that one of those absent players is Hunter.

Boston’s Vulnerable Rim Protection

The Hawks can thrive at the basket as long as Kristaps Porzingis remains injured for Boston. 

He is a very effective shot-blocker whose ability to contest shots is something that the Celtics continue to miss. Largely due to his absence, the Celtics allow the eighth-most field goals within five feet of the basket.

The Pick

Both offenses will be very comfortable in this game. Atlanta’s defense repeatedly allows teams to blow past 120 points.

Boston’s well-stocked offense will feature strong shooting from lesser-known guys who will complement the regular scoring prowess of its best players.

The Hawks won’t need to score many points in order to help the game go over, but it does have many scorers who are reliably efficient at the basket and can be counted on against a defense that really misses Porzingis.

NBA Pick: Over 225 (-110) at BetOnline

Over 225 (-110)

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Toronto Raptors vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Tuesday, November 12, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Fiserv Forum