NBA Best Bets for November 19: Thunder Is Booming in San Antonio
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Rainman M.
- November 19, 2024
Top NBA Pick: Thunder -8.5 (-110) at BetOnline
The sportsbooks have released their NBA betting odds for tonight’s basketball action, and two games in particular interest me as worth investing in: Hornets vs. Nets and Thunder vs. Spurs.
And take a look at our YouTube channel for more NBA picks, including today’s Cavaliers vs. Celtics and Pelicans vs. Mavericks games.
Charlotte Hornets vs. Brooklyn Nets
Tuesday, November 19, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at Barclays Center
Brooklyn’s Three-Point Shooting
It’s difficult to be impressed by the Nets, because their last six games all came against teams that made the playoffs last year, with three of those games coming against two of the very best teams in the Celtics and the Cavaliers.
Despite losing five of those games — which is fair because of how strong their competition was — the Nets have been doing something that creates an excellent outlook for them tonight.
They have converted over 40% of their three-point attempts in each of their last four games. Evidently, their shooting is hot.
One way in which they manufacture three-pointers is by owning the interior space. They will drive inside, deploy cutting actions, and grab offensive rebounds before finding a teammate with room to shoot behind the arc.
With Cam Thomas, Dennis Schroder, Cameron Johnson, and Dorian Finney-Smith all converting over 38% of their three-point attempts, they have the shooters to knock down favorable opportunities.
Stronger Perimeter Defense
Charlotte, too, is heavily reliant on shooting threes. The Hornets do a poor job of finishing around the basket, so they are especially dependent on making threes.
I like Brooklyn in this game because it does a better job of guarding the perimeter.
Compared to Charlotte, the Nets allow fewer made threes per game because they are better at limiting favorable looks behind the arc. They allow open and wide-open three-point attempts with lower frequency. Moreover, they allow fewer three-point attempts, indicating their stronger ability to run teams off the three-point line.
Location Matters
Charlotte has won one road game all year. Its victim was Houston.
Like the 76ers, whom Charlotte took to overtime in Philadelphia, the Rockets struggle from behind the arc.
The Hornets, on the other hand, lost by five in Atlanta, where the Hawks are atrocious at preventing three-pointers, and have been blown out in their other road games.
Brooklyn, with its strong shooting and its stout perimeter defense, will win comfortably tonight at home, where the Nets will be glad to return from a very difficult road trip.
NBA Pick: Nets -3 (-105) at BetOnline
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs
Tuesday, November 19, 2024 – 09:30 PM ET at Frost Bank Center
San Antonio’s Key Absence
The Spurs will most likely miss center Victor Wembanyama tonight. He is listed as ‘doubtful’ with a knee injury.
This will be a decisively important absence because of the role he plays on both offense and defense. Offensively, he leads the team in scoring. He scores over six points per game more than any of his teammates. Defensively, he provides valuable rim protection.
San Antonio’s Last Game Without Him
Without Wembanyama, San Antonio lost badly to a Dallas team that had been struggling.
The Mavericks had lost four games in a row, including a game against lowly Utah, before beating the Wembanyama-less Spurs by 17 points.
In that game, backup center Daniel Gafford scored 22 points for Dallas, which tells me that the Thunder can expect increased production in the interior tonight.
Oklahoma City’s Dominance Inside
The Thunder are already one of the best teams at scoring within five feet of the basket.
Point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and forward Jalen Williams are two scoring forces who thrive in this space.
Both are averaging over 20 points per game and form a part of Oklahoma City’s superior firepower tonight.
Without Wembanyama, the Spurs lack a significant inside scoring threat. Their third-leading scorer, Jeremy Sochan, has already been out for a while. Their second-leading scorer, Devin Vassell, is primarily a shooter, but San Antonio’s three-point shooting will struggle against what is one of the best teams at preventing made threes.
Gilgeous-Alexander and Lu Dort, who was even closer than the former to being an All-Defensive Team selection last year, are two of OKC’s strongest perimeter defenders.
Road Warriors
Except for a two-point loss against an always-good Denver team in the high Colorado altitude, the Thunder have won all of their road games so far by double digits.
They thrived their first time in Denver, in Chicago, in Portland, and at the Clippers. Expect them to win by double digits again tonight.
Game Prop
OKC is also a great bet because it is coming off a rare loss, and in the two times when the Thunder played directly after a loss, their offense skyrocketed in productivity.
They scored 126 points against Houston’s third-ranked scoring defense and 134 points against the Clippers’ fourth-ranked scoring defense.
Logically, their team total “over” makes for a solid addition to your betting slip.
NBA Pick: Thunder -8.5 (-110) at BetOnline
NBA Pick: Thunder Over 115.5 Points (-120) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
