NBA Best Bets for November 3: Dallas Has Too Much Healthy Talent
-
Rainman M.
- November 3, 2024
Top NBA Pick: Mavericks -7.5 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for today’s slate of games. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Pistons vs. Nets and Magic vs. Mavericks. For your best bets, I will recommend investing in Brooklyn and Dallas.
Detroit Pistons vs. Brooklyn Nets
Sunday, November 03, 2024 – 03:30 PM ET at Barclays Center
Detroit’s One Win
Detroit is the second-worst team at scoring points — the Pistons are one of two teams to be averaging fewer than 105 points per game.
Given their offensive deficiency, they rely more extensively than other teams do on the quality of their defense. Relatedly, they also benefit from facing teams with poor offensive attacks.
Their one win says a lot about what they want to see in an opposing offense in order to have a positive outlook against an opponent.
They beat Philadelphia. In that one win, the 76ers converted a pitiful 28.6 percent of their 28 three-point attempts. Indeed, the 76ers are, in terms of three-point percentage, the NBA’s second-worst three-point shooting team.
They, more than every team but one, lack the weaponry to challenge Detroit’s perimeter defense.
Detroit’s Worst Losses
Whereas Detroit has thrived the most against a uniquely poor three-point shooting team, its worst losses have come against the NBA’s stronger three-point shooting groups.
For example, the Pistons conceded 124 points in a six-point loss to a Boston team that ranks eighth in three-point shooting percentage. Detroit kept that game somewhat close because its offense played anomalously well.
But its biggest loss came in its last game against a Knicks team that owns an excellent three-point conversion rate.
New York blew them out — by 30 points — with firepower that Detroit could not remotely rival.
While the Celtics converted 22 of 48 three-point attempts against the Pistons, New York made 18 of its 38 three-point attempts against them.
As another example, Cleveland regularly shoots the ball well from behind the arc and used efficient three-point shooting to power past Detroit by twelve points.
Brooklyn’s Three-Point Shooting
Detroit’s results so far indicate that the Pistons will struggle to stop teams that shoot well from deep, whereas they can beat teams that are awful from deep.
Which group of teams does Brooklyn fit in? Unfortunately for Detroit, the Nets are one of the NBA’s better three-point shooting teams.
They devote themselves to shooting threes. Currently, they make the sixth-most threes per game, which is better than Cleveland and New York. In three-point efficiency, they are a few spots behind the Celtics.
Look out for Cam Thomas, who is shooting 35.3 percent from deep. Cameron Johnson has been more efficient. Dennis Schroder is shooting 53.7 percent from behind the arc.
While Brooklyn can complement its three-point shooting with strong scoring inside the arc from guys like Ziaire Williams, expect the likes of Thomas, Johnson, and Schroder to do the most to help Brooklyn score enough points to cover the spread.
Different Scoring Capacities
Whereas Detroit exceeded 109 points one time this season, Brooklyn has done so five times. If you like the Nets’ offense to play very well, then it is hard to imagine how Detroit manages to cover the spread.
The Pistons simply don’t have a lot of good scorers. They rely extensively on 32-year-olds Tobias Harris and Tim Hardaway Jr., who are both having the worst season of their respective careers, and on the ever-inconsistent Malik Beasley, who has been awful on the road.
With guys like these attempting a high volume of shots, Detroit lacks the personnel to keep pace with Brooklyn.
NBA Pick: Nets -3.5 (-110) at BetOnline
Orlando Magic vs. Dallas Mavericks
Sunday, November 03, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at American Airlines Center
The Importance of Paolo Banchero
Orlando is in a terrible spot tonight because it has to learn to play without its star player, Paolo Banchero. Banchero is extremely important to the Magic.
He leads them with 29 points per game. The second-highest-scoring Magic player has all of 18.7 points per game. Moreover, Banchero has a very high usage rate.
This usage rate indicates that, to give a few examples, he is approximately as important to Orlando as Anthony Edwards is to Minnesota, as Ja Morant is to Memphis, and as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is to Oklahoma City.
Banchero’s usage rate is higher than Edwards’ and Morant’s and close to Gilgeous-Alexander’s.
In its first full game without Banchero, Orlando suffered its second-worst loss of the season. Most recently, the Magic lost by eleven points in Cleveland. Cleveland actually led 118-98 with a couple of minutes left before taking the foot off the gas pedal.
Dallas’ Stars
Whereas Orlando misses its star player, Dallas has Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving healthy.
While these two stars are notoriously difficult for defenders to stay in front of in the half-court, they are also lethal in transition.
Orlando’s defense is well-known for its quality in the half-court, but it becomes vulnerable when the opposing team pushes the pace.
Dallas initiates transition offense with relatively high frequency, attempting the ninth-most field goals in transition.
As evident when Orlando lost badly in Memphis, giving up over 120 points to the Grizzlies in what was one instance of the Orlando defense’s major road struggles this season, the Magic transition defense is vulnerable.
By exploiting this vulnerability, Dallas will race past the anyhow-depleted Magic.
NBA Pick: Mavericks -7.5 (-115) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
