NBA Best Bets for November 30: There’s a Poole Party in Milwaukee
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Rainman M.
- November 30, 2024
Top NBA Pick: Poole Over 19.5 Points (-114) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The sportsbooks have released their betting odds for today’s NBA action, and two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Hawks vs. Hornets and Wizards vs. Bucks. Let’s dive in!
Atlanta Hawks vs. Charlotte Hornets
Saturday, November 30, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET at Spectrum Center
Don’t Fall for Atlanta
The Hawks are favored on the road in this game. They actually seem to be appealing on first glance because they are coming off two wins against one of the NBA’s best teams, the Cavaliers.
Moreover, they seem to be appealing because of Charlotte’s ongoing losing streak.
I am here to tell you that the Hornets are actually the best bet for this game and one of the best bets for today’s NBA slate.
Atlanta’s Bad Spot
First of all, Atlanta is in a bad spot today precisely because of its ongoing win streak. The Hawks are 0-2 SU and ATS in the game following a two-game win streak. In those two games, they got blown out by the Thunder and lost as favorites to Portland. Their consistent lack of consistency makes them worth fading.
Now, beating Cleveland is surely impressive. But we can’t forget that the Hawks, though capable of beating the NBA’s best teams, have also lost twice to the NBA’s worst team, Washington.
Atlanta’s Awful Defense
Atlanta is worth fading as a road favorite because of its atrocious defense. The Hawks rank 21st in defensive rating.
They are, among other things, terrible at guarding the perimeter. One team allows at least 15 three-pointers made per game. That team is Atlanta.
It allows both open and wide-open three-point attempts with the fourth-highest frequency. Moreover, by a clear margin, Atlanta allows the most three-point attempts per game.
These statistics indicate that Atlanta does a horrible job of running teams off the three-point line and of contesting their three-point shot attempts.
Charlotte’s Offense
On offense, the Hornets have a terrific outlook today because they love to shoot three-pointers. They attempt the second-most three-point shots per game.
A lot of bettors think of going against Charlotte today because of its injuries, but this line of thought fails to account for the skillset of its available players.
Brandon Miller, for example, is healthy. He is a high-volume three-point shooter who has established a reputation for his efficiency from behind the arc. Fellow shooting guard Seth Curry, who converts three-pointers with over 40% frequency, is likewise healthy.
Charlotte has the talent available to thrive against Atlanta’s terrible defense, and the matchup is ideal for its perimeter-oriented attack.
Charlotte’s Misleading Losing Streak
While the Hornets have been losing games, they’ve been highly competitive against respectable competition.
They lost their last two games, to winning teams Miami and New York, by a combined total of five points. Impressively, they held both teams to fewer than 100 points.
This visible improvement in their defense creates a great outlook for them overall given their offense’s prospects, especially with its strong three-point shooting.
The Pick
Charlotte is a great home underdog given Atlanta’s defensive weakness, especially along the perimeter. The Hornets’ improved defense is something that Atlanta, which is one of three teams to allow over 120 points per game, can’t match.
The Hawks, moreover, are in a bad spot given their ongoing tendency to fail to win three games in a row.
NBA Pick: Hornets +3.5 (-105) at BetOnline
Washington Wizards vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Saturday, November 30, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Fiserv Forum
Jordan Poole’s Bounce-Back Spot
Washington guard Jordan Poole is in a great spot because he is coming off a bad game, which is defined as one in which he fails to reach his scoring average — he scores 20.3 points per game.
This season, he has failed to reach 20 points four times. After each of the four games, he scored over 20 points.
No Kuzma
Poole is also in a great spot today because teammate Kyle Kuzma won’t play. Kuzma is the team’s second-leading scorer, so his absence will create a scoring vacuum that Poole will, more than any of his teammates, be expected to fill.
Milwaukee’s Defense
The Bucks also do an awful job of defending the three-point line. Their strength on defense lies in their rim protection. So, they give up few points around the basket, but Poole is a shooting guard. His strength is shooting from deep.
Milwaukee allows the fourth-most made three-pointers per game, and Poole, who attempts the most threes on his team and converts over 43% of his three-point attempts, is the best option to take advantage of this weakness.
Furthermore, the Bucks struggle in particular to defend guards. Most recently, for example, LaMelo Ball for the Hornets dropped 50 points on Milwaukee. Guards regularly thrive against the Bucks largely due to Dame Lillard’s poor defense.
The Pick
Both the spot and the matchup speak for a strong game from Poole today.
You can still find his over/under at under 20 points, but you’ll still want to invest in his “over” if the number rises.
With the stars aligning for Poole today, it’s very fair to expect him to score at least 25 points. He’s scored as many as 42 in a game this season.
NBA Pick: Poole Over 19.5 Points (-114) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
