NBA Opening Night Best Bets: The Lakers Will Surprise People
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Rainman M.
- October 22, 2024
Top NBA Pick: Lakers ML (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The NBA is back! Top Sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for tonight’s season-opening games.
Let’s make money on both games. I recommend investing in the Knicks-Celtics “Under” and the Lakers moneyline for your best bets. And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel. Our expert has covered these games as well by providing some alternative betting angles.
New York Knicks vs. Boston Celtics
Tuesday, October 22, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at TD Garden
The Knicks With OG Anunoby
New York is great at understanding which players will help it. Last year, before the Knicks acquired OG Anunoby, they ranked 19th in defensive rating.
In the time period between his arrival in New York and the end of the regular season, they ranked third in defensive rating. Their defensive rating improved by 5.2 points.
Anunoby is an elite defender known for his versatility. He will guard different players, using his extreme length and active hands to disrupt their shots.
Adding Mikal Bridges
In the offseason, the Knicks added Mikal Bridges.
Bridges, too, is an excellent defender. He is a former NBA All-Defensive First Team selection.
Celtics backers will indicate that his numbers on defense have shown decline, but this decline is solely a consequence of the energy that he had to invest in assuming greater play-making responsibilities on offense.
With Jalen Brunson spearheading New York’s offensive attack, Bridges won’t have that responsibility and will be able to regain his best defensive form.
In particular, Bridges is known for his perimeter defense. He will lock down opposing players shooting away from the basket.
Why This Matters
Anunoby and Bridges will form an elite defensive pair. This duo will form one of the toughest challenges that Boston’s best scorers can face.
Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are both wings. As such, they will have to reckon with Anunoby and Bridges.
Tatum and Brown regularly lead the Celtics in scoring, so Anunoby and Bridges form just the antidote to limit Boston’s point total.
Defending Three-Point Shot Attempts
Last year, Boston’s offense relied primarily on three-pointers. The Celtics made the most three-pointers per game. After Anunoby’s arrival last year, New York did a great job of limiting three-pointers.
The Knicks allowed open three-pointers with relative rarity and were one of the best teams at limiting wide-open three-point attempts.
Bridges will make their perimeter defense even stronger, further enabling them to inhibit Boston from scoring in the ways it prefers.
Jrue Holiday and Derrick White
Boston likewise boasts well-reputed defenders who will limit the scoring in this game.
Jrue Holiday, Boston’s point guard, is a six-time member of the All-NBA Defensive Team.
Derrick White, one of Holiday’s backups, is likewise a decorated defender.
This duo will limit the scoring of their counterpart, New York’s point guard Brunson.
Now, especially later in the season, Brunson has had games where he is literally unstoppable.
But Brunson is a slow starter. In his career, his field goal percentage in October is 41 percent, whereas it is over 47 percent in every other month.
Holiday and White will face a human — as opposed to superhuman — form of Brunson over which they will exercise their defensive prowess.
The Total
People’s perception of New York’s offensive capabilities is inflated by some tremendous performances achieved by Brunson, Josh Hart, and others in the postseason.
But, as Brunson is painfully aware, we are in October. Hart, too, is someone who often performed well beyond himself in last year’s postseason.
Because he is currently trying to figure out his shooting form, Bridges inspires more concern than the inefficient Hart ever did during the latter’s stretches of poor three-point shooting in last year’s regular season.
Boston owned the second-best defensive rating last year and continues to have the personnel to limit Brunson’s offensively rather unintimidating teammates.
New York’s newly stacked perimeter defense will likewise help to keep the scoring low in this game.
NBA Pick: Under 222 (-115) at BetOnline
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Tuesday, October 22, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at crpyto.com Arena
Readjusting Our Perception of Minnesota
Folks have a very positive perception of the Timberwolves because of their strong performance in last year’s postseason.
But consider that you can still think that Minnesota will have a good season and not like it to win on Opening Night.
Even when we think about that postseason, while it is impressive that the Timberwolves made it to the Western Conference Finals, let’s recall how Dallas exposed its vulnerabilities on offense.
Minnesota failed to exceed 108 points a single time in that series. What Dallas did is something that the Lakers will surely have seen and be aware of.
The Mavericks focused their defense on Anthony Edwards, the centerpiece of Minnesota’s offense.
Primarily, Edwards wants to drive inside and attack the basket. The Mavericks did a great job of limiting his shooting efficiency in the paint and of forcing him to pass more frequently on his drives.
Los Angeles’ Rim Protection
It is crucial to know about the Lakers’ rim protection because Edwards primarily attempts shots within five feet of the basket.
I like Los Angeles’ defense because the Lakers have one of the NBA’s best rim protectors.
Anthony Davis is an annual Defensive Player of the Year candidate primarily because of his rim protection.
With him patrolling the rim, Los Angeles has what it takes to punish Minnesota’s offense for relying on Edwards’ rim-attacking endeavor.
Edwards Will Decline This Year
Davis and company will have it easier because Edwards won’t be as dangerous this year.
I understand that Minnesota fans, eager to have more success in the postseason, have clamored for somebody to replace Karl-Anthony Towns. Cap considerations also came into play.
Julius Randle was, I believe, a terrible choice.
Whereas Towns is characteristically an efficient three-point shooter, Randle is more of a post-up player. A comparison of career three-point percentages shows that Randle clearly lacks Towns’ shooting abilities.
Randle will be paired with Rudy Gobert, whom Minnesota’s defense absolutely depends on as a rim protector.
While Gobert is obviously helpful on defense, he will hurt Minnesota’s offense.
With him and Randle inside, the paint will be congested for Edwards. He will find it more difficult to find driving space, which is something that Towns, with his floor-spacing as an effective three-point shooter, was able to provide him.
Minnesota’s offense already proved relatively easy to stymy as defenses could pretty much leave at least Gobert alone to guard the rest of the team five-on-four.
The offense was a significant problem for Minnesota during its postseason run, and this is something that will worsen this year especially tonight as Edwards deals with Davis inside.
Public perception of Edwards is so high because of last year’s postseason, so, if you are into prop betting, you’ll want to recognize that his point total is inflated.
Los Angeles’ More Balanced Offense
The Lakers are well-known to have two effective inside scoring weapons in LeBron James and Davis. But this year’s Lakers squad is going to be more balanced.
Last year, the Lakers ranked second in field goals made per game within five feet of the basket. Relying on scoring at the basket would have caused them to struggle against Gobert.
This season, their new head coach wants them to shoot more three-pointers. They have the personnel to be a strong three-point shooting team, giving their offense another potent dimension.
D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves, for example, have been efficient three-point shooters in their respective careers.
Balance is tough for even the best defenses to deal with, as when Minnesota gave up 124 points to a Dallas team that had both weapons inside the arc and shooters outside of it.
While they will adjust their focus in order to create more scoring, the Lakers’ offense still enjoys a level of continuity and therefore, chemistry that makes the team a great Opening Night option in contrast to a Minnesota team that needs to incorporate Randle somehow in a way that avoids the spacing problems that do seem inevitable.
NBA Pick: Lakers ML (-105) at BetOnline
NBA Pick: Anthony Edwards Under 26.5 points (-114) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
