NBA Playoffs Best Bets for April 27: Indiana’s Offense Remains Unfazed
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Rainman M.
- April 27, 2025
Top NBA Pick: Pacers Total Points Over 111.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for today’s action.
For your best bets, I will recommend investing in Cade Cunningham to hit his point total “over,” Malik Beasley to hit his three-pointers made “over,” Donte DiVincenzo to hit his three-pointers made “over,” the Celtics to cover and the Pacers to hit their point total “over.”
New York Knicks vs. Detroit Pistons
Sunday, April 27, 2025 – 01:00 PM EDT at Little Caesars Arena
The “Prove It” Angle
Star players respond with extraordinary ability to adversity.
Leading up to Game 1 of the series between Golden State and Houston, sharpshooter Stephen Curry was hearing all about how Houston perimeter defender Amen Thompson had recently locked him down, holding him to three points. In Game 1, Curry responded by scoring 31 points.
Game 3 between Detroit and New York was a “prove it” game for OG Anunoby, just like Game 1 between Houston and Golden State was one for Curry. In Game 3, Anunoby improved his on-ball defense and limited Detroit star Cade Cunningham to 40 percent field goal efficiency. Cunningham still scored 24 points because he is so central to Detroit’s offense that he regularly amasses a lot of shots and free throw attempts.
With the “prove it” angle in place for Cunningham, who will look to respond to Anunoby’s Game 3 defensive performance, and with his centrality to Detroit’s offense, asking him to score four more points seems like a modest ask.
Expect a better Cunningham, whose off-ball movement, skill set in isolation and ball-screen game will enable him to improve in the same way that he improved, relative to his Game 1 performance, in Game 2.
NBA Pick: Cade Cunningham Over 27.5 Points (-110) at Bovada
Malik Beasley’s Three-Pointers
Detroit relies extensively on Malik Beasley’s three-point shooting. Beasley will have games where he goes crazy and makes six or more threes. He will also have off-days. Overall, he is a solid shooter, though. He has converted over 41 percent of his threes in each of his last two seasons.
After two consecutive bad days from behind the arc, one has to expect a strong shooting performance from him. For example, he made four threes on March 11 after he was a combined 4-for-15 from deep in his last previous two games. Likewise, on January 4, he made 6 of 14 three-point attempts after he was 1-for-14 from deep in his previous two games.
Beasley is going to bounce back today and is fully capable of replicating his Game 1 performance where he made six threes.
NBA Pick: Malik Beasley Over 3.5 Made Three-Point Shots (+130) at Bovada
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Sunday, April 27, 2025 – 03:30 PM EDT at Target Center
The Lakers Lost Game 3 on Defense
Los Angeles will certainly score more points in Game 3 because Luka Doncic’s health will improve after he was sick during Game 2. However, the Lakers will still need to worry about their defense.
They really miss the interior defense that the departed Anthony Davis had provided them. While Jaxson Hayes is still a strong rim protector for them, he is unplayable in this series. He has yet to exceed nine minutes in a game this series.
In Game 3, Julius Randle and Jaden McDaniels exploited the thinness of Los Angeles’ interior defense by combining for 52 points. Anthony Edwards, who loves driving to the basket, added 29 points largely by attacking inside.
What This Means
Because the Lakers lost Game 3 as a result of their interior defense, it stands to reason that, in Game 4, they will focus more on guarding the basket.
They will articulate this focus by expending more resources inside. It is already obvious that they have to do this in order to make up for Hayes’ absence. In doing so, they will make it easier for Minnesota’s shooters to thrive from behind the arc.
Donte DiVincenzo
Donte DiVincenzo is too good of a shooter to keep failing to make three three-pointers. He’s converted at least 39.7 percent of his three-point attempts in each of his last three seasons. Given his reliable success from deep, it is clear why he is allowed to attempt so many threes. He attempted eight in his last game.
Asking this good shooter to make three in today’s game seems very reasonable.
NBA Pick: Donte DiVincenzo Over 2.5 Made Three-Point Shots (+120) at Bovada
Boston Celtics vs. Orlando Magic
Sunday, April 27, 2025 – 07:00 PM EDT at Kia Center
Boston’s Great Spot
The Celtics are always capable of dominating. The defending champs have one of the highest-ranked defenses. Their offense is star-laden and well-stocked with three-point shooters and potent inside scorers. This completeness enables them to dominate regardless of the matchup.
They dominate when they are fired up. Losses fire them up. Even in the regular season, where they routinely failed to cover double-digit spreads, they took teams that they lost to more seriously in rematches. Philadelphia, for example, was a rare double-digit underdog that they pummeled after they had previously lost to the 76ers.
In the postseason, Boston intensifies its pursuit of vengeance. We already saw Game 1 of this series. The Celtics beat the Magic by 17 after losing their previous game against them two weeks earlier.
Last year in the postseason, the Celtics were 3-0 after a loss with all three of those wins coming by 13 or more points. Expect this trend to continue today.
NBA Pick: Celtics -6.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Sunday, April 27, 2025 – 09:30 PM EDT at Fiserv Forum
History Repeats Itself
Indiana is substantially worse on the road than it is at home. Sometimes, it plays with insufficient intensity away from home. Last year, in the series between these teams, the Pacers lacked intensity when they lost their first road game in Milwaukee 109-94. They responded by winning the following game, also in Milwaukee, 125-108.
I am not saying that they will win today, but they will play with more focus and intensity in response to the punch in the mouth that Milwaukee gave them in Game 3.
Improved Offense
Their enhanced focus and intensity will yield greater sharpness. Sharper play means fewer turnovers — in Game 3 they lost sundry scoring opportunities by committing as many turnovers as they did, which was six more turnovers than they committed in Game 2.
Sharper play will also mean better shooting. In Game 3, they missed 18 wide-open three-point attempts. Because they have a good group of shooters — the Pacers rank eighth in three-point percentage — one has to expect them to really thrive from deep.
Tyrese Haliburton and Company
I also like Tyrese Haliburton to score more points inside the arc. He has a tendency to be passive. In Game 3, he passed to teammates instead of exploiting open layup opportunities.
Those opportunities will continue to be there. Not only is Milwaukee’s perimeter defense objectively worse off with Damian Lillard pairing up with Gary Trent Jr., who is getting more minutes in place of struggling Taurean Prince, but its rim protector, Brook Lopez, is also spending more time on the bench because he is pretty unplayable in this series.
Haliburton himself has said that he needs to attack and try to score more. He does have a tendency to respond to passive performances by playing more aggressively, as when he attempted 19 field goals in Game 2 where Indiana attained its highest point total of this series.
Pascal Siakam will likewise thrive inside. He is too fast for the slow-footed Lopez, but Milwaukee’s other defenders likewise struggle to contain him, as evident when he scored 28 points in Game 3 despite Lopez seeing another minute reduction.
Indiana scored 117 points in Game 1 and 123 points in Game 2. The Pacers have the personnel to attain such high point totals by thriving both inside and behind the arc, and today is a good spot for their offense.
NBA Pick: Pacers Total Points Over 111.5 (-110) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
