NBA Playoffs Best Bets for April 25: Help for Luka Is Arriving
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Rainman M.
- April 25, 2025
Top NBA Pick: Lakers +3 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for tonight’s Game 3 action.
For your best bets, I will recommend investing in the Magic to cover against Boston, in the Bucks to cover against Indiana, and in the Lakers to cover against Minnesota.
Boston Celtics vs. Orlando Magic
Friday, April 25, 2025 – 07:00 PM EDT at Kia Center
Game 2 Outcome
Orlando covered the spread in Game 2 by staying within ten points of the Celtics in Boston.
The Magic scored 100 points despite converting an anomalously bad 24.1 percent of their three-point attempts. They withstood an unrepeatably elite performance from Jaylen Brown, who scored 36 points.
Without having to worry about injured Jayson Tatum in Game 3, the Magic will continue to benefit from the lack of floor-spacing that his absence creates in Boston’s offense. Orlando will score more points, especially by shooting better from deep, where they are reliably more efficient at home, according to season-long conversion rates.
With three more three-pointers tonight than their three-pointer total in Game 2 and accordingly a three-point conversion rate that aligns with their season-long capabilities, the Magic will score enough points to win.
NBA Pick: Magic +4.5 (-102) at BetOnline
Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Friday, April 25, 2025 – 08:00 PM EDT at Fiserv Forum
Milwaukee’s Game 2 Scoring
Even though he was rusty and relatively unproductive, Damian Lillard contributed to Milwaukee’s improved scoring output.
The Bucks can score more points with Lillard, even when he shoots as poorly as he did in Game 2, because he provides improved spacing for their offense.
It is too hard for defenses to contain both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Lillard. And Indiana certainly can’t contain Giannis, who scored 36 points in Game 1 and, with three fewer field goal attempts, 34 points in Game 2.
An effective Lillard, who has now shaken off his rust, will enable Milwaukee to score more than the 115 points that they scored in Game 2.
Shooting Disparity
Moreover, the Bucks have the most efficient group of three-point shooters in the NBA. They are especially solid at home, where their three-point conversion rate is 40.2 percent, compared to 37 percent on the road. Indeed, it is common knowledge that role players tend to perform better at home.
Whereas Milwaukee will be able to count on its shooters to thrive tonight at home, the Pacers cannot continue to count on their players to make the tough shots that they did in Game 2.
Throughout Game 2, Indiana benefited from a tremendous disparity in open three-point attempt conversion rates, which will shift in the Bucks’ favor in Milwaukee.
Milwaukee’s Need to Improve Defensively
The Bucks fell behind early in Game 2, as they did in Game 1, because of their defense. Their head coach has identified this obvious problem and stated that adjustments “for sure” need to be made.
As much as NBA fans love to criticize head coaches, any moron will understand that Milwaukee needs to fix its defense. Critically, the Bucks have the personnel to do this.
They have been playing Brook Lopez, who lacks the foot speed to contain Indiana’s stretch bigs. Indiana is attaining an absurdly high conversion rate with Lopez as the primary defender. This statistic is important to recognize because it reflects the tremendous impact that fixing the Lopez problem will have.
Milwaukee’s head coach knows that Giannis is perfectly comfortable playing center. He is an annual Defensive Player of the Year Candidate. Metrics show that Jericho Sims has also been an effective defender in this series. He is a center. Bobby Portis can also play center with his size. He scored 28 points in Game 2 and is less of a defensive liability in this matchup than Lopez.
More minutes from AJ Green, who scored 15 points in 27 minutes in Game 1 but accumulated 12 minutes in Game 2 while the Bucks continued to trot out Taurean Prince for serious minutes, will also help tremendously. Green’s defensive rating was a fantastic 102.4 in the regular season.
Milwaukee has obvious problems, but also has obvious solutions. Investing more intensity on defense without sacrificing its offensive potential will enable the Bucks to starkly reduce Indiana’s scoring total, which is already set to decline when it converts threes at a lower rate.
NBA Pick: Bucks -5.5 (-110) at BetOnline
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Friday, April 25, 2025 – 09:30 PM EDT at Target Center
Los Angeles’ Game 2 Adjustment
In Game 2, the Lakers allowed 85 points to the Timberwolves after they allowed 117 to them in Game 1. This is a huge difference, one that is too big to dismiss as a coincidence or simply as a product of bad shooting.
Sure, the Timberwolves missed eleven wide-open three-point attempts. But that’s not why they lost. The Lakers themselves missed twelve wide-open three-point attempts. If the Timberwolves make a few more of their three-point attempts, they might score more than 85 points. But exceeding such a low point total hardly means anything.
In order to score enough points to win, they will still have to confront the major adjustment that the Lakers made in Game 2, which is profoundly effective. Whereas in Game 1 the Lakers compensated for their lack of protection by expending extra resources in the interior, which allowed driving Minnesota players to kick the ball out to teammates behind the arc, the Lakers in Game 2 focused on limiting the scoring of those teammates.
Thus, only Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle attained a double-digit scoring output.
The Lakers’ defensive strategy in Game 1 was ineffective because the Timberwolves love to shoot threes and have many shooters who can get hot from deep. They have placed an insuperable burden on the shoulders of Edwards and Randle, who were not able to score enough points even though Los Angeles’ top three has, overall, underperformed thus far.
Los Angeles Will Improve Offensively
Yes, Luka Doncic has been and will be an elite scorer. LeBron James and Austin Reaves, however, have disappointed thus far.
The Lakers won Game 2 by nine points even though they scored 94 points and underperformed tremendously from behind the arc. Their head coach is very intelligent and will recognize that there are adjustments that he can make.
The Lakers need to negate the negative influence that Minnesota’s length and physicality are having on their offensive potential. They will do this by increasing their off-ball movement, such as by running more three-man actions than they have been doing so far.
Instead of featuring enough of those actions, its offense has focused too much on using Minnesota’s switching on ball-screens to target mismatches. By shifting their focus, the Lakers will have recognized and made use of a simple adjustment that will enable them to blow past 100 points.
LeBron is LeBron. Reaves has even recently proven his ability to thrive against top-ranked defenses primarily because he is an excellent shooter. After making zero threes in his last game, Reaves is in a great bounce-back spot. In four previous occasions this season he made zero threes in a game. He has always made from three to nine threes in his following game.
By getting LeBron and Reaves going, the Lakers will be superior at the top in addition to being stronger at the bottom as their defense locks down Minnesota’s role players.
NBA Pick: Lakers +3 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
