NC State vs. Clemson College Football Week 4 Free Picks: Can the Wolfpack Cover?

It’s tough being “the other” college football team from your state. The North Carolina State Wolfpack are always playing in the shadow of the North Carolina Tar Heels – and that shadow will keep following you around, even after you leave Raleigh. Just ask Brennan Armstrong; while Drake Maye went directly from Chapel Hill to the NFL, Armstrong couldn’t even land a CFL gig with the BC Lions this year.

Wolfpack fans would be more than happy to welcome Armstrong back at this point. After failing to beat the college football odds in their first three games, NC State (2-1 SU, 0-3 ATS) opened as 7.5-point road dogs for Saturday’s matchup with the Clemson Tigers (1-1 SU and ATS), but as we go to press, the Wolfpack are available as high as +20 on the NCAAF odds board at Bovada. Maybe they’ll even reach the magic +21 by the time you read this.

You know what they say: Buy low, sell high. The Pack may be struggling, but this isn’t the same Clemson team that won two national championships (2016, and 2018) under head coach Dabo Swinney. Let’s dig deep, peel back the layers, and see where all this nasty chalk is coming from.

What Happened to NC State?

They changed quarterbacks – twice. Following Armstrong’s departure, Coastal Carolina graduate transfer Grayson McCall was head coach Dave Doeren’s choice to lead the Wolfpack; McCall didn’t handle the leap from the Sun Belt to the ACC particularly well, then he got jacked up during last Saturday’s game against Louisiana Tech and had to leave the field.

Enter CJ Bailey. The 6-foot-6 true freshman took over for McCall and helped NC State come back from a 17-3 first-half deficit to beat Louisiana Tech 30-20, although they still dropped the cash as 20.5-point home faves. Now that Bailey has been announced as the starter for Week 4, the NCAAF betting market is loading up on Clemson, who demolished Appalachian State (+17 away) 66-20 in Week 2.

This might actually turn out to be a good thing for Doeren and the Pack. Clint Brewster at 247Sports had Bailey ranked No. 5 among his Top 25 back-up QBs for 2024, after making an instant splash during spring camp and carrying that growth forward into the fall session. Bailey only earned a “high three-star prospect” coming out of high school in Florida, but his early arrival in Raleigh helped flatten that learning curve significantly.

Is Dabo Swinney Washed?

That was the chatter coming over the interwebs after Clemson lost their season-opener 34-3 to Georgia (-10.5 at home), the more recent two-time national champions from the almighty SEC. But it seems all is forgiven after that monster win over App State; Clemson even moved up a notch to No. 21 on the AP rankings for Week 4.

That’s under-selling the Tigers somewhat. Swinney might never hold that National Championship Trophy again as long as he’s still working for an ACC school – that’s just the way things are now that the SEC has sucked all the air (and money) out of the room. But Swinney is still a quality head coach, and the advanced stats at BCF Toys have Clemson ranked No. 16 overall, well ahead of NC State at No. 57.

Speaking of BCF Toys, their Week 4 game projections have Clemson winning Saturday’s matchup by roughly 33-14. The college football totals have moved up from 47.5 to 48 at most online sportsbooks; it’s de rigueur for the bookies to hew their lines close to the projections, but we’re willing to throw a small sum at NC State given Bailey’s upside.

NCAAF Pick: NC State +20 (-110) at Bovada

NC State +20 (-110)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.