Top NCAAB Pick: NC State +9.5 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
One way or another, a really, really good story in the wide, wide world of sports is going to come to an end with the Final Four matchup between No. 11 NC State Wolfpack and No. 1 Purdue Boilermakers.
Check out our top-rated sportsbooks for the most up-to-date NCAAB betting odds and real-time fluctuations in the lines, ensuring you stay informed and ahead of the game.
NC State Wolfpack vs. Purdue Boilermakers
Saturday, April 06, 2024 – 06:09 PM ET at State Farm Stadium
For Zach Edey and the Boilermakers, it’s a story of redemption. Purdue became just the second No. 1 seed to lose to a No. 16 in last year’s NCAA Tournament, and Edey returned to West Lafayette intent on proving that was a fluke by winning it all.
A Purdue loss to the Wolfpack would almost feel like dropping a game to a No. 16 seed considering NC State was a longshot on the college basketball futures to even make the dance and sat No. 76 on the KenPom when the ACC Tournament started three weeks ago.
Taking that into account, NC State might as well keep the Cinderella story going and win it all, right?
1st NCAA Tournament Meeting
It would be an epic upset if the Wolfpack complete the run. Top sportsbooks have the Boilermakers favored by 9-9.5 for the first Final Four match of the evening, with scoreboard bettors facing a decision on a total that is sitting 146-146.5.
Edey was a sophomore when the Boilermakers scored an 82-72 overtime win over the Wolfpack in the 2021 Hall of Fame Invitational at Barclays Center in Brooklyn. Purdue was ranked No. 1 in the country and favored by 14.5.
But it was NC State that led for the first 39 minutes and 9 seconds of regulation before the Boilermakers forced overtime at the very end. Edey only played 12 minutes, scoring 9 points and grabbing 7 boards.
DJ Burns Jr. was playing at Winthrop then before transferring to NC State the following year and was playing middle school ball when the Boilermakers topped the Wolfpack in December 2014 during the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. Prior to those two Purdue victories, NC State had won all four meetings between the programs.
Purdue’s Center of Attention
Edey will be expected to have 9 points and 7 rebounds in the first 12 minutes of Saturday’s matchup, and then go on to finish the first half with a double-double in his pocket.
That’s what Edey did in the Elite Eight clash with Tennessee, scoring 19 points and grabbing 10 rebounds – 3 offensive – in the Boilermakers’ 72-66 collision against Tennessee. There should be prop bets for him to repeat that 1st-half double-double on NCAAB odds boards.
He has recorded double-doubles during the first halves of three NCAA Tournament games, and Edey’s stat lines for the first 20 minutes of Purdue’s four games are what most mortals aspire to see in their boxscores for entire games: 16.7 points, and 8.7 rebounds.
The won over Tennessee ended with Edey sporting a new career high: 40 points. The Purdue star is now averaging 30 PPG during the tournament with 16+ rebounds per contest.
Edey Tough to Guard at Charity Stripe
Nearly a third of his points have come from the free throw line where Edey has shot 67% (36-54). The 7-foot-4 Canadian outscored Tennessee 14-7 in that column during the Elite Eight matchup.
Since the start of the Big Ten Tournament, Edey is averaging nearly 10 points per game at the charity stripe, prompting Tennessee head coach Rick Barnes to say, “He’s a difficult guy to guard against, but he’s a difficult guy for referees to officiate, too.”
Wolfpack Double-DJs Duke to Reach Final Four
For nine consecutive games, Kevin Keatts and the Wolfpack have faced a win-or-go-home scenario, and for nine consecutive games, they’ve answered the bell.
Beating any teams in that 9-game stretch would be sweet enough, but the fact NC State took down UNC to win the ACC Tournament and then knocked off Duke to reach the Final Four, well, that’s sweeter than stolen honey.
The Wolfpack were favored in just two of those contests, the ACC opener against Louisville and the NCAA Round of 32 matchup with Oakland. BetOnline closed NC State as a 7-point underdog against Duke, and the Wolfpack used a big second half to club the Blue Devils, 76-64.
It was their own big man, DJ Burns Jr., who led the charge with 29 points, including the jumper that tied the game in the second half. DJ Horne made the next bucket that gave the Wolfpack a lead they wouldn’t relinquish, and finished with 20 points.
The Picks
One of the biggest question marks for this Final Four contest is how sensitive will the refs be when it comes to guarding Edey. If you believe they will call it tight, then consider a play on Purdue. After all, it’s your money. But it’s difficult – impossible? – for me to not root for NC State, especially with the ghost of Jim Valvano roaming the sidelines.
I’ll take the points and play the game ‘under’ the total with my college basketball picks.
NCAAB Pick: NC State +9.5 (-115) at BetOnline
NCAAB Pick: Under 146.5 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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