NCAA Basketball Best Bets for December 28: Wyoming Is Saturday’s Best Home Dog
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Rainman M.
- December 28, 2024
Top NCAAB Pick: Wyoming +6.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The sportsbooks have released their odds for Saturday’s college basketball action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Ole Miss vs. Memphis and Nevada vs. Wyoming.
Ole Miss Rebels vs. Memphis Tigers
Saturday, December 28, 2024 – 02:00 PM ET at FedExForum
Ole Miss’ Intelligent Defense
According to KenPom, Ole Miss has the 47th-most efficient defense. On defense, the Rebels want to create numerical advantages for themselves without creating vulnerabilities. They like to, for example, employ double teams in the post that disrupt the momentum of the opposing ball-handler and prevent him from scoring at the basket. The likely response for the ball-handler is to pass to an open teammate behind the arc.
Ole Miss’ perimeter defense is intelligent because, beyond striving to recover back to the perimeter, defenders know which opposing shooters to prioritize. For example, one minute into its game against Louisville we see the double-team happen and then the recovery to the perimeter. In this instance, the defense runs an efficient Louisville shooter off the three-point line in order to prevent him from getting a favorable look at the basket from behind the arc.
Conversely, we see a double-team happen with 18:10 left in the second half of this game. In this instance, Louisville has an inefficient three-point shooter get a good look at the basket from deep, and he misses.
Good Shooters Struggle Against Ole Miss
Ole Miss’ ability to recover back to the perimeter and to target good shooters explains why efficient three-point shooters repeatedly perform poorly when they face the Rebels. Louisville’s aforementioned efficient shooter, for example, Reyne Smith, boasts a 38.3-percent three-point conversion rate on the season but was 2-for-8 from behind the arc against Ole Miss.
While Memphis has efficient shooters, the quality of its offense is baked into the spread. The Rebels make for a strong bet because they can focus on guarding Memphis’ good shooters without having to worry about Memphis’ ability to punish them inside.
They struggled against balanced BYU and Purdue offenses, but Memphis ranks 259th in two-point percentage. When the Rebels keep Memphis’ shooters locked-down behind the arc, the Tigers will fail to answer with alternative means of scoring.
Effective Pressure
On top of struggling to score, Memphis will struggle just to keep possession of the ball. As evident in its employment of double-teams, Ole Miss likes to put opposing ball-handlers into difficult situations. The Rebels are one of the very best teams at forcing turnovers.
On the other side, Memphis’ offense ranks 302nd at preventing turnovers. The Tigers lack reliable ball-handlers who can avoid making mistakes with the ball. Ole Miss is well-built to amplify and punish Memphis’ general tendency to commit turnovers.
Memphis’ Perimeter Defense
Memphis’ defense ranks almost 200 spots behind Ole Miss’ at limiting opposing three-point percentage.
The Tigers like to help aggressively inside. Their defenders get disoriented when they help aggressively in general. Their aggression and disorientation leads to open three-pointers for the defense.
Ole Miss Will Rain Threes
Ole Miss loves to shoot threes and will therefore love to face the Tigers with their vulnerable perimeter defense. Ole Miss will use drive-and-kick and many off-ball screening actions to free up three-point attempts.
The latter form a part of their offense’s endeavor to have guys always be moving to different locations on the court in order to catch the ball with an open look at the basket.
Sean Pedulla and fellow guard Jaylen Murray both convert well over 40 percent of their three-point attempts and contribute to their team’s excellent overall three-point percentage. Both Pedulla, who played point guard for three years at Virginia Tech, and fellow senior Murray are also experienced point guards who are reliable ball-handlers.
Ole Miss’ offense is the best at limiting turnovers, so the Memphis defense’s attempts to force turnovers will fail to disrupt the Rebels and will in fact make it easier for the Rebels to find open looks.
Takeaways
Ole Miss will cover the spread and win generally by being more in-rhythm on offense and specifically by being more efficient from behind the arc.
NCAAB Pick: Ole Miss +1 (-107) at BetOnline
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. Wyoming Cowboys
Saturday, December 28, 2024 – 04:00 PM ET at Arena Auditorium
Key Trend
Nevada is favored in this matchup because oddsmakers fail to account for the series history between these teams.
The Wolf Pack enter this game having lost five straight games in Wyoming. Last year, for example, Nevada had an NCAA Tournament team. But it still lost its game at Wyoming.
Nevada Can’t Exploit Wyoming’s Weaknesses
Now, every team has weaknesses, and Wyoming is no exception. But Nevada is not built to exploit them.
The Cowboys lack true rim protectors. They also can be vulnerable to turning the ball over when they face pressure-heavy defenses. A lack of true rim protectors can make a defense vulnerable when it tries to guard the basket. But Nevada ranks 280th in field goal percentage at the rim.
Moreover, the Wolf Pack does not get a lot of steals. Therefore, Wyoming’s weaknesses won’t be perceptible in this game.
Wyoming’s Dedicated Perimeter Defense
I like Wyoming on Saturday because, in this game, we will emphatically notice its strengths. One of its strengths is perimeter defense. The Cowboys allow the 320th-highest point distribution from three because they excel on defense at contesting and preventing three-point attempts.
Their defenders do a great job of staying glued to their man behind the perimeter. As you can see, for example, with over 15 minutes left in the second half of their game against South Dakota, they remain dedicated to guarding the perimeter when the opposing ball-handler manages to drive by his defender. He’ll make his way to the basket after failing to locate an open teammate behind the arc.
Why This Matters
The excellence of Wyoming’s perimeter defense matters in this game because the Wolf Pack relies exceedingly on its ability to make threes.
Compared to when it tries to score inside, Nevada’s efficiency is drastically superior behind the arc. When the Wolf Pack faced a heavily dogged Washington State team that shares Wyoming’s dedication to and success in guarding the perimeter, Nevada lost by eleven at home.
Wyoming’s Balanced Offense
On offense, the Cowboys rely on good spacing, which allows them to operate in isolation. Hence, they have a very low assist-to-field goal ratio. You can see this play out, for example, with 11:30 left in the first half of their game against South Dakota and with 7:30 left in the second half of the same game.
For Wyoming, different players will drive inside, pull up from behind the arc, and find other ways to score. We saw Vanderbilt, for example, upset Nevada by using good spacing to mitigate Nevada’s ability to rely on help defense.
The one-on-one actions of various Wyoming playmakers, such as its point guards Obi Agbim and AJ Wills, will lead to a high point total for the Cowboys.
Takeaway
Wyoming owns this matchup with Nevada, especially when it plays at home.
The Wolf Pack will fail to take advantage of Wyoming’s weaknesses. Conversely, the Cowboys will feature superior play-making and stout perimeter defense.
NCAAB Pick: Wyoming +6.5 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
