NCAA Basketball Best Bets for February 11: Illini to Fight Past Bruins in Champaign
-
LT Profits
- February 11, 2025
Top NCAAB Pick: Illinois -5.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
We nailed the 3-0 NCAA Basketball sweep last Thursday on a night with no major conference plays, putting us at 33-24-3, 57.9% in our last 60 plays. We now return to a Tuesday card that has 37 games on the main board.
We are bringing you three best bets for Tuesday based mostly on our proprietary model, all of which are sides that we feel hold value at the top-rated sportsbooks. And unlike last time, all three of our selections tonight hail from major conferences with two from the Big Ten and one from the ACC.
UCLA Bruins vs. Illinois Fighting Illini
Tuesday, February 11, 2025 – 08:00 PM ET at State Farm Center
We are siding with the home team to win comfortably in a Kenpom Top 25 Big Ten battle on Tuesday when UCLA travels east to visit Illinois in Champaign.
Big Man is Back
Illinois was once living in the Kenpom Top 10, but they are just 4-5 in the last nine games, dropping them to 16-8 overall, 8-6 in the Big Ten, and 14th in Kenpom. That is still a high ranking considering the record and the Illini may be back on track now that a key piece has returned to the lineup in 7’1” Tomislav Ivisic.
Ivisic has been basically unstoppable near the basket this season making a whopping 64.1% of his 2-point attempts (75-for-117), and he has even been competent for his size beyond the 3-point arc at 35.2%. However, he missed three games with a case of mono, and his minutes were limited in his first two games back.
He finally saw his normal workload last game with 33 minutes, and scored 18 points while missing just one shot, going 6-of-7 from 2-point range and making both of his 3-pointers. The result was a nice 95-74 road blowout of Minnesota, and Illinois now returns home where they are 9-2 with Ivisic in the lineup. Best of all, this is a nice matchup for him where he can potentially dominate inside.
Vulnerable on Interior
Now, we totally understand that UCLA has won seven straight games to get to 18-6 overall, 9-4 in the conference, and #25 in Kenpom. But this is a team with a stark home/away variance, and five of the seven wins have been at home. Furthermore, they scored only 65 points in one of the two road wins at #92 Washington.
The Bruins are averaging just 67.8 points per game on the road compared to over 80 points at home, and we do not expect improvement against an Illinois defense ranked 23rd in efficiency and an amazing fourth in eFG% allowed. Sure, UCLA ranks eighth in defensive efficiency, but they are only 112th in eFG% allowed.
And most critically for this game, the Bruins are 195th in 2-point defense, so they do not appear to have any answers for Ivisic on their interior.
The Pick
We think that the 7-game winning streak for UCLA is actually giving us value here with Illinois at a manageable price now back at full strength. We are betting on the Illini as home favorites.
Predicted Score: Illinois 81 – UCLA 70
NCAAB Pick: Illinois -5.5 (-110) at Bovada
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. USC Trojans
Tuesday, February 11, 2025 – 09:00 PM ET at Galen Center
Despite their leading scorer being questionable, we are still betting on USC at home at the Galen Center hosting Penn State on Tuesday.
Winnable Even Without Claude
USC is currently one of the First Four Out on most NCAA Tournament projections, so every game is big for them from here on out. They stand at 13-10 overall, a losing 5-7 inside the Big Ten, and ranked 59th in Kenpom. They are a much better team than that though when leading scorer Desmond Claude is in the lineup.
However, he injured his knee against Kenpom #17 Michigan State three games ago, yet stayed in the game and led his team to a 70-64 upset win. He was held out of the last two games on the road however, both losses with one being a 90-72 blowout at #7 Purdue and the other being a narrow 77-75 loss at #56 Northwestern.
Well, the Trojans now return home to face a lower ranked opponent with Penn State at #63. That is a good sign that they can still win this game if Claude, currently listed as questionable, is held out again.
Obviously, USC would appear to have a big edge if Claude does go. But if he does not, Wesley Yates can step up again like he did while scoring 30 points last game and their two big men Chibuzo Agbo and Saint Thomas (each averaging double digits) can do damage inside against a slumping opponent.
Lost 9 of Last 10
We were actually relatively high on Penn State earlier this season, but that has gone out the window with nine losses in their last 10 games. This leaves them at 13-11 overall and a dismal 3-10 in the conference, with no hope of getting a bid to the Big Dance unless they miraculously win the Big Ten Tournament.
Now, the overall efficiency rankings have the Nittany Lions at a still respectable 62nd offensively and 79th defensively, but they have declined in both areas in Big Ten play ranking 17th and 10th respectively in an 18-team league. The offense has failed to surpass 75 points in the last five games including scoring no more than 64 points in the last three.
But our biggest concern here is on defense, specifically inside where Penn State is 231st nationally in 2-point defense and 16th in the B1G. That should allow the USC big men mentioned earlier to succeed even if Claude does not go.
The Pick
Thus, we like USC to win comfortably here with or without Claude. Give the points with the Trojans at home, and we recommend betting on them early, as this line would rise if he is upgraded to probable.
Predicted Score: USC 82 – Penn State 72
NCAAB Pick: USC -5 (-107) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Pittsburgh Panthers vs. SMU Mustangs
Tuesday, February 11, 2025 – 09:00 PM ET at Moody Coliseum
In an ACC matchup where both teams are close in most areas, the two biggest edges are both held by SMU, which has us backing the Mustangs as moderate favorites at home in Dallas.
Should be Raining 3s
SMU enters at 18-5 overall and 9-3 in the conference, but that is only good enough for fifth in the ACC. They come in on a nice roll though winning four straight games and seven of the last eight, which now has them up to 45th in Kenpom. This is a well-balanced team that ranks 45th nationally in eFG% and 38th in eFG% allowed defensively.
The keys to victory here though are both on offense, in the forms of 3-point shooting and offensive rebounding. The Mustangs rank 10th in the country in 3-point shooting at 38.9% and 16th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage at 37.1% (national average 30.0%). Moreover, they are ranked second in the conference in both of those areas during league play.
It also helps that SMU is 10-3 at home with all three losses coming to teams currently ranked 31st or better in Kenpom including #2 Duke. Pittsburgh is not at that level, currently ranked 42nd and dropping like a rock.
No Second Chances
Pitt was once ranked 22nd in Kenpom, but they have lost seven of their last nine games to fall to 14-9 overall and 5-7 inside the conference. They have not been great in true road games either, going 3-5 with two wins coming over teams currently 122nd or worse and the third win over an Ohio State team that was playing very erratically at the time on a 3-point shot as time expired. Moreover, three road losses have been by double digits.
This is also a terrible matchup for the Panthers stylistically. You see, they have had trouble defending the perimeter all year, ranking 211th in 3-point defense, which is obviously not good news against the SMU sharp-shooters. Pitt is also a bad rebounding team on both ends, ranking 254th in offensive rebounding percentage and 166th defensively, which should result in a huge advantage for the Mustangs in second chances.
The Pick
Despite Pittsburgh being ranked three spots higher in Kenpom, these are simply two teams going in totally opposite directions. Furthermore, that factor does not seem to be fully incorporated into this seemingly cheap line. Add in the stylistic edges for SMU and bet on the Mustangs at home.
Predicted Score: SMU 82 – Pittsburgh 72
NCAAB Pick: SMU -4.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
