NCAA Basketball Best Bets for February 18: Cougars Claw Past Jayhawks in Provo
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LT Profits
- February 18, 2025
Top NCAAB Pick: BYU -2 (-105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
We remain a solid 37-29-3, 56.1% in our last 69 NCAA Basketball plays, and we are now back for a decent-sized card with 31 games on the main board, with many of them being nice major-conference battles.
We have keyed in on three best bets for the Tuesday slate based mostly on our proprietary model, all three of which are relatively small home favorites that we feel hold value at the current betting odds. Two of our three selections hail from major conferences in the SEC and the Big 12, with the third play coming from the mid-major Mountain West Conference.
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Tuesday, February 18, 2025 – 07:00 PM ET at Humphrey Coliseum
Those of you who have followed us this season are aware that we are not as high on Texas A&M as much of the country is. Well, we are once again tempting fate as we are fading the Aggies by backing Mississippi State as tiny favorites at home.
Average Nearly 12 More Points at Home
The Bulldogs began the season 14-1, but they have gone 4-6 in their last 10 games to fall to 18-7 overall and 6-6 in conference play. Still, this is the SEC we are talking about and that record still leaves Mississippi State ranked 30th overall in Kenpom. As you might expect while playing in the best conference in the country, four of those losses came to Kenpom Top 10 teams and the other two came to #15 Florida and #19 Kentucky.
They now face an Aggies team ranked 13th in Kenpom, but as you will see in a bit, we are dubious of that ranking. They are coming off a nice 81-71 road win at rival Mississippi, and now return home where they are averaging nearly 12 more points (84.7 per game) than they are away from Starkville (72.9).
They are led in scoring by guard Josh Hubbard at 17.4 points per game, but their biggest weapon for this game may be the 6’10” KeShawn Murphy, who has dominated this year closer to the basket. Murphy has made 60.9% of his 2-point shots, keying an attack ranked 60th nationally and second in the SEC in 2-point percentage.
20 Wins, but Poor Shooting
Yes, Texas A&M has been a thorn in our side this season, as they are 20-5 overall, 9-3 in the SEC and ranked 13th in Kenpom and seventh in the AP Poll. They are also riding a 5-game winning streak. Our skepticism, however, stems from this team being almost entirely about defense, where they rank sixth in defensive efficiency, while they are an awful shooting team that relies on second chances to score points.
To wit, the Aggies lead the country in offensive rebounding percentage at an impressive 42.4% (national average 29.9%). But when it comes to shooting the basketball, they rank 292nd in eFG%, 306th in 3-point shooting, 256th in 2-point shooting and, for good measure, 295th in free throw shooting! And the presence of Murphy for MSU means that A&M may not grab as many offensive boards as usual.
Furthermore, with the Bulldogs having a nice inside-outside game in Murphy and Hubbard, the Aggies’ defense may need to choose who to focus on. As great as that defense has been, it may have a tough time defending both straight up.
Regardless of what the rankings say, we still expect the poor shooting by Texas A&M to be their ultimate downfall. With this looking like a tough road matchup for them, we are betting on Mississippi State as short home chalk.
Predicted Score: Mississippi State 79 – Texas A&M 70
NCAAB Pick: Mississippi State -2 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. Colorado State Rams
Tuesday, February 18, 2025 – 09:00 PM ET at Moby Arena
We are venturing into the mid-major Mountain West Conference on Tuesday, a conference where the top teams have traditionally fared well at home. We are looking for a continuation of that by betting on Colorado State in Fort Collins when they host Nevada.
All 4 MWC Losses to Big 3
Colorado State comes in at 16-9 overall and tied for third in the conference with San Diego State at 10-4. The Rams are often forgotten with the “Big 3” in the Mountain this season generally considered to be New Mexico, Utah State and San Diego State. And to be fair, CSU probably belongs at the top of the second tier, as all four of their conference losses have come to the Big 3.
The flip side of that though is that they are 9-0 against the rest of the MWC, including beating Nevada on the road in Reno. They should be able to score here as they are 22nd nationally in 2-point shooting at 56.7%, and while they are only slightly above average beyond the 3-point arc at 33.8%, that has improved immensely to 36.3% in Mountain West play.
In fact, Colorado State is second inside the conference in eFG%, as well as second in offensive efficiency.
Defensive Issues in Conference
Nevada was expected to contend for the MWC title before the season as one of the most experienced teams in the country, but they have been a big disappointment at 15-10 overall and 7-7 in the conference. Yes, they have won four straight games since starting 3-7 in the Mountain, but all four wins have come against the bottom half of the league.
Most concerning has been the Wolf Pack’s defensive struggles in conference play. They are ninth in eFG% allowed and 10th in 3-point defense, with the latter possibly being a death blow considering how much better Colorado State has been shooting 3s vs. the MWC.
Also consider that Nevada is 3-5 on the road overall including losses at lower-tier conference teams in Wyoming and Boise State, while as mentioned CSU has yet to lose any conference game to anyone outside the Big 3.
We look for the Rams to keep that perfect record intact, especially playing at home. Lay the moderate points with Colorado State on Tuesday.
Predicted Score: Colorado State 75 – Nevada 65
NCAAB Pick: Colorado State -4 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Kansas Jayhawks vs. BYU Cougars
Tuesday, February 18, 2025 – 09:00 PM ET at Marriott Center
It should be a more electric atmosphere than usual at the Marriott Center Tuesday with BYU hosting a marquee basketball program in Kansas for the first time ever in the Cougars’ first season in the Big 12. And considering these teams’ home/away splits, we are looking for BYU to ride that energy to victory.
One of the Strongest Home Courts
Even vs. ordinary opponents, BYU owns the 11th best Home home-court advantage in the country overall per Kenpom at +3.9 points, and that may be compounded tonight given the opponent.
The Cougars are 17-8 overall and tied (with Kansas) for fifth in the conference at 8-6. But as usual, they have been a different beast in Provo, going 12-2 with an average winning margin of +21.2 points! Their only two home losses have been to Arizona and Texas Tech, who are both on the Kenpom Top 12 as well as second and third in the Big 12 behind powerhouse Houston.
The Cougars are 15th in the country on offensive efficiency and 10th in eFG%, and they have been almost unstoppable inside ranking seventh in 2-point shooting at 58.7%. They are also a commendable 55th in 3-point shooting at 36.5% (national average 33.7%). Moreover, their defense has been good enough given how great the offense has been, grading out at 102.2 points per 100 possessions allowed (national average 107.6).
Lost to Lesser on Road
Now, Kansas is obviously one of the most prestigious programs in college basketball, but truth be told, this year’s team is not as good as the great clubs of the recent past, and making the program’s first-ever trip to Provo does not help.
The Jayhawks are 17-8 overall and still ranked 16th in Kenpom, but this is just an ordinary team offensively ranking 74th in eFG%, 147th in 3-point shooting and 81st in 2-point shooting. Sure, they have been elite defensively ranking fifth in efficiency, but nobody has been able to slow the Cougars in this building where they average 86.3 points, and if that hot shooting continues, Kansas has lacked the offense to keep pace.
Then, that has been the Jayhawks’ play away from Lawrence, as they have lost three straight road games with the last two defeats coming at Utah (76th in Kenpom) and Kansas State (59th).
This is a considerably tougher trip for Kansas, and we look for their shooting struggles to be their undoing. Bet on BYU as a small favorite in Provo.
Predicted Score: BYU 80 – Kansas 72
NCAAB Pick: BYU -2 (-105) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
