NCAA Basketball Best Bets for February 20: Wildcats and Buckeyes To Go Over in Columbus
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LT Profits
- February 20, 2025
Top NCAAB Pick: Wildcats-Buckeyes Over 143.5 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We had another winning NCAA Basketball night last night going 2-1, making us 5-1 so far this week and bringing us to 42-30-3, 58.3% in our last 75 plays. We are now back on Thursday for a card that has 36 games on the main board, but only two major conference games, both from the Big Ten.
We have keyed in on three best bets for the Thursday slate based mostly on our proprietary model, comprised of two totals and one side, that we feel hold value at the current betting odds from top-rated sportsbooks. We do indeed have a selection in one of the Big Ten games, with our other two plays coming from the WAC and the West Coast Conference.
And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our latest YouTube channel picks, featuring Wichita State vs. Florida Atlantic and UNC Asheville vs. Radford.
Northwestern Wildcats vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Thursday, February 20, 2025 – 06:30 PM ET at Schottenstein Center
We have a play in probably the most high-profile matchup on the entire board Thursday from the Big Ten, where we are supporting the Over when Ohio State hosts Northwestern in Columbus in a game televised nationally on Fox Sports 1.
Should Succeed Beyond the Arc
Ohio State has been erratic all season, posting some nice wins but also losing quite a few winnable games. The inconsistency leaves them at 15-11 overall and with a losing 7-8 conference mark, yet they remain a possibly overrated 27th in Kenpom. That ranking stems from still grading out well on both ends despite the record, as they are 25th in offensive efficiency and 32nd in defensive efficiency.
Inconsistencies aside, this is one game where the Buckeyes should be able to run up the score a bit from beyond the 3-point arc. That is because they rank 19th in the nation in 3-point shooting at 38.2%, while Northwestern has been terrible defending the perimeter while ranking 239th in 3-point defense.
Ohio State has been on an offensive roll as of late averaging 79.2 points over the last nine games including tallying 93 and 83 in the last two games respectively. We now foresee another score in the 80s tonight considering the expected 3-point success.
Ball Protection and Second Chances
Northwestern began this season 10-3, but they have gone the reverse of 3-10 since then to currently sit at 13-13 overall and 4-11 inside the conference. With that being said, they remain a respectable 70th nationally on offensive efficiency at 114.3 points per 100 possessions, safely above the national average of 107.4 points.
And they have a couple of paths to hang in this game by putting up points themselves, beginning with ball protection. The Wildcats are an excellent 27th overall in turnover percentage at only 14.6% (national average 17.4%), and they do not figure to face much pressure from a passive Ohio State defense that is 220th in turnover percentage forced.
And a second path to scoring points is via second chances. The Cats are above average overall in offensive rebounding percentage at 31.9%, but they have been better than that during Big Ten play at 32.5%, ranking third in the conference in that category.
The Pick
Thus, the bottom line here is we see Ohio State breaking 80 points and Northwestern doing enough offensively to remain competitive. This has us betting the Over in Columbus in this spot.
Predicted Score: Ohio State 82 – Northwestern 72
NCAAB Pick: Wildcats-Buckeyes Over 143.5 (-110) at Bookmaker
Southern Utah Thunderbirds vs. Abilene Christian Wildcats
Thursday, February 20, 2025 – 08:00 PM ET at Moody Coliseum
We are taking a rare trek into the WAC on Thursday night, where we simply feel the spread is too big in a game where both teams struggle offensively but the underdog seems more adept defensively. We are betting on Southern Utah as inflated underdogs when they travel to Texas to take on Abilene Christian.
Can’t Shoot and Too Sloppy
To put things succinctly, Abilene Christian is probably too poor offensively to be this decided of a favorite over anyone! ACU comes in at 12-13 overall and 4-6 inside the WAC, and it is not as if they have much of a home court advantage at the 3,600-seat Moody Coliseum, with Kenpom rating that HCA at only +2.8 points.
To say that the Wildcats have been offensively inept would probably be understating things. You see, they are ranked 313th in offensive efficiency, 315th in eFG%, 336th in 3-point shooting, and 282nd in 2-point shooting. For good measure, they have also been extremely sloppy with the ball while ranking 340th in turnover percentage. And it is not as if they make up for that by playing shutdown defense (more on that in a bit).
Also, keep in mind that they are doing that while playing in a weak WAC ranked 14th as a conference overall per Kenpom.
Average is Better Than Bad
Now, as you might expect, the reason this spread is so high is Southern Utah is not exactly setting the world on fire themselves, sitting at 11-15 overall and 3-9 inside the conference. And truth be told, their offensive rankings just about mirror the ugly numbers of ACU.
But while these teams are just about equally bad offensively, the Thunderbirds are at least capable of playing defense. They are a touch better than the national averages in eFG% allowed (50.1% vs. 50.9%), 3-point defense (33.2% vs. 33.8%), and 2-point defense (50.2% vs. 51.0%).
If you are wondering why we are making a big deal about SUU being average defensively, it is because Abilene has been considerably worse in all three categories while ranking 270th, 248th, and 266th respectively!
The Pick
Adding this all up, we do not see Abilene Christian getting much separation here while facing an adequate defense. Thus, we are taking the points with Southern Utah in a game we see going down to the wire.
Predicted Score: Abilene Christian 73 – Southern Utah 72
NCAAB Pick: Southern Utah +7.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Oregon State Beavers vs. Pepperdine Waves
Thursday, February 20, 2025 – 10:00 PM ET at Firestone Fieldhouse
In a late-night battle from the West Coast Conference, we see a higher scoring game than the posted total suggests, leading us to back the Over when Oregon State travels to Malibu to take on Pepperdine.
Good Shooting vs. Bad Defense
Oregon State is quietly having a nice season in their first year in the WCC at 18-9 overall and 8-6 inside the conference, although a weak non-conference schedule leaves them only 80th in Kenpom. Nonetheless, we expect the fine offensive play they have displayed this season to continue tonight.
The Beavers are a commendable 53rd nationally in offensive efficiency at 116.1 points per 100 possessions while ranking 41st in eFG%, 38th in 3-point shooting, and 57th in 2-point shooting. If you are a fan of consistency, they rank an identical third in all four of those categories during conference play!
We do not expect much resistance tonight from a Pepperdine defense ranked 212th in efficiency while applying basically no pressure with a 294th ranking in turnover percentage forced. Thus, we do not think the Beavers reaching 80 points tonight is an unreasonable outcome.
May Not Need Much
Now, we understand that the Waves are 10-17 overall and 4-10 in the conference, and they are coming off a horrific 107-55 loss at Gonzaga on Saturday. But thankfully, Oregon State is not Gonzaga (10th overall in Kenpom), so we do not expect a repeat of those 55 points on 29.2% shooting at a tough venue when returning home tonight.
Also, if we are right about Oregon State reaching 80 points, and with this posted total currently available at 146, it would mean Pepperdine would need to score in the mid-to-upper 60s to clear this total, which seems doable. After all, while Pepperdine only ranks 219th nationally in scoring, that average of 72.4 points even after the Gonzaga debacle would be good enough tonight, and they are still averaging 75.6 points here at home.
The Pick
Therefore, we see both teams doing enough with our total projected score being 10 points higher than the current total, making the Over our bet Thursday night in Malibu.
Predicted Score: Oregon State 81 – Pepperdine 75
NCAAB Pick: Beavers-Waves Over 146 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
