NCAA Basketball Best Bets for February 21: Michigan & Michigan State Battle for B1G Lead
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Willie Bee
- February 21, 2025
Top NCAAB Pick: Michigan State -3 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Everyone is chasing St. John’s in the Big East, and the Marquette Golden Eagles will try to at least keep pace Friday when they travel to Philadelphia to take on a Villanova team that is a bit down in the mouth following a tough loss earlier this week.
Then it’s on to the Great Lakes State where the top two teams in the Big Ten battle for supremacy in a rivalry matchup between Michigan and Michigan State.
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Marquette Golden Eagles vs. Villanova Wildcats
Friday, February 21, 2025 – 07:00 PM ET at Finneran Pavilion
Villanova looks to pick up the pieces following a disappointing performance earlier this week when the Wildcats host the Marquette Golden Eagles on Friday.
Fans can catch the action on FS1, and bettors can get down on action at top sportsbooks where the Golden Eagles opened -1 before that spread strengthened to -1½ or -2 overnight. Scoreboard bettors are looking at 142 for their decision.
Eagles’ Last 4 Roadies Stay ‘Under’
Marquette treated visiting Seton Hall rather rudely a few nights ago, belting the Pirates 80-56 and covering the 19-point spread with ease. The final just made it ‘over’ the 135½-point total most oddsmakers closed with.
It was the 2nd-straight win following a 3-game skid that included setbacks against St. John’s and UConn. With revenge matchups against the Red Storm and Huskies coming up, it could be tough for Shaka Smart to keep his guys from glancing ahead.
Villanova comes off the road following two very disappointing losses. The Wildcats dropped a game last Saturday at Providence where they were small favorites, then blew a late lead on Tuesday at UConn in an upset bid as 9-point underdogs.
Those losses sent Villanova back into the middle of the pack instead of sitting pretty in as the No. 4 seed and getting a 1st-round bye for the upcoming Big East Tournament.
Last 4 Meetings in Philly Split the Totals
Fresh off from the collapse at Connecticut, the Wildcats are also facing an opponent that has won the last eight meetings in the series. Marquette aims for its 4th-straight season series sweep after beating Villanova 87-74 about a month ago in Milwaukee.
Not only have the Golden Eagles won the last eight, they covered each of the wins, doing so as 9½-point favorites on the NCAAB odds last month.
The Pick
That streak of dominance in the rivalry is reason enough to back Marquette. Coupled with the Villanova’s dejected mood, it’s a no-brainer to make the Golden Eagles my pick.
NCAAB Pick: Marquette -1.5 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Michigan State Spartans vs. Michigan Wolverines
Friday, February 21, 2025 – 08:00 PM ET at Crisler Center
First place in the Big Ten is up for grabs in Ann Arbor where the Michigan Wolverines host the Michigan State Spartans. FOX has the broadcast, and Bookmaker has the Wolverines favored by 3.
Chalk Cashes Last Half-Dozen Meetings
After being picked in the middle of the Big Ten pack on the preseason futures odds, Michigan enters the fray with a slender half-game lead over Michigan State. The Spartans were second on that list back in October at +500, while the Wolverines were +1100.
It’s the first of two meetings this season – the teams close in East Lansing on March 9th – and the 195th meeting in the rivalry. Michigan State swept the matchups last season, covering both contests that also paid off for ‘under’ bettors, and Michigan leads the series, 104-90.
In the matchup at Crisler Center, the Spartans were 5½-point chalk and nearly doubled-up on the spread with a 73-63 decision. Favorites have covered the last 6, and 8 of the last 10.
MSU in Midst of 1-6 O/U Stretch
Michigan State gave its backers another payday earlier this week when the Spartans held off No. 13 Purdue in East Lansing, 75-66. Both teams shot better than 50%, but Tom Izzo’s troops dominated down low and in the final 2 minutes to cover as 3-point favorites.
It marked the third cover in their last four games for Spartan backers, as well as the third consecutive contest to come up short of the total.
Michigan has been idle since a hard-fought 86-83 win at Ohio State this past Sunday. It was another case of dominating the paint for Dusty May’s outfit, with Danny Wolf (17 pts, 11 reb) and Vladislav Goldin (20-10) both posting double-doubles.
The win raised the Wolverines’ win streak to 6, and was also notable for stopping an 8-game losing streak at the window. Michigan backers have been hit especially hard when the team plays at home, covering just one of the six Big Ten contests.
The Pick
This is the time of year that Izzo usually has his Spartans peaking, and the type of rivalry game that should come down to the final possession. Take the points.
NCAAB Pick: Michigan State -3 (-108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
