NCAA Basketball Best Bets for December 21: Kentucky Is Deep and Talented
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Rainman M.
- December 21, 2024
Top NCAAB Pick: Kentucky -7.5 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NCAAB odds for Saturday’s action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: UC Davis vs. Pepperdine and Ohio State vs. Kentucky.
For your best bets, I will recommend investing in UC Davis and Kentucky.
UC Davis Aggies vs. Pepperdine Waves
Saturday, December 21, 2024 – 03:00 PM ET at Firestone Fieldhouse
Key Trend
Pepperdine enters this game winless against Big West competition.
The Waves lost by 18 to tough UC San Diego and UC Irvine teams but also lost by nine at home to 4-8 Cal State Fullerton and, despite shooting unusually well from behind the arc, by three at home to Long Beach State. While this last game was close, they were favored by six points.
Overall, they are 0-4 SU and ATS against Big West teams. Kenpom positions the Aggies about 100 spots ahead of Fullerton and Long Beach State, so they will pose a tougher test.
This line of thought alone suggests double-digit Davis domination.
Key Matchup Angle
In addition to being another Big West foe, UC Davis is primed to win this game because it matches up well against Pepperdine.
On offense, the Waves primarily want to enter the mid-range spaces and score in those spaces. Overall, they rank 109th in two-point jump shot frequency. Meanwhile, UC Davis thrives at defending the mid-range. The Aggies rank 91st at limiting the opponent’s field goal percentage on two-point jumpers.
Niko Rocak’s Defense
The most important defender for UC Davis will be center Niko Rocak. At 6-9, he is a terrific shot-blocker, ranking 34th in shot-block rate. He is a great shot-blocker not primarily because of his ability to protect the rim. Instead of using his size, he wants to emphasize his mobility.
Rocak is someone who guards players effectively away from the basket. In addition to playing tight on-ball defense, he uses his mobility to position himself effectively. For example, with over 15 minutes left in the second half of UC Davis’ game against favored Stanford, we see Rocak deter the opposing ball-handler from using a screen to drive inside. We then see Rocak promptly recover back to his man in the mid-range in order to prevent him from getting a shot off.
Strong positioning is, in general, an important feature of UC Davis’ defense, where in games you can see them congest the paint, which makes it hard for teams to find spaces in which they can score from the mid-range.
Pepperdine Can’t Keep Pace
Whereas UC Davis will make Pepperdine uncomfortable on offense, Pepperdine’s defense will fail to reciprocate. The Waves are easy to score against because, as video footage shows, their players are very beatable off the dribble.
Opposing players also use screens to free themselves at the basket. In general, the Waves position themselves poorly on defense. For example, with just over ten minutes left in the first half of their game against Northwestern, a Pepperdine defender needs to help inside but then fails to recover effectively back to the three-point line, where his man is able to blow by him.
On offense, UC Davis uses good spacing, on- and off-ball screening actions, and employs other tactics in order to promote both efficacious ball movement and operating room for its scorers.
Pressure
In addition to using good ball movement to score in the half-court against Pepperdine’s array of beatable defenders, UC Davis will turn defense into offense. The Waves lack stable ball-handling. Instead, they turn the ball over a lot. Their starting point guard, for example, suffers from a high turnover rate.
Overall, their offense ranks below average at preventing turnovers and especially at preventing steals. UC San Diego was able to pull away from Pepperdine partly by generating turnovers. UC Davis has a pressure-heavy defense that ranks 14th at forcing turnovers and 66th at forcing steals. The Aggies can do the same thing — build success by applying pressure — that UC San Diego did to Pepperdine.
Takeaway
Pepperdine will be under pressure and under insurmountable duress. The Waves will turn the ball over and otherwise fail to execute in the half-court against a UC Davis defense that is built to focus on guarding mid-range spaces.
Pepperdine’s defense will fail to contain the Aggies, which, with their strong ball movement, will score more than enough points to cover the spread.
NCAAB Pick: UC Davis -1 (-110) at BetOnline
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Kentucky Wildcats
Saturday, December 21, 2024 – 05:30 PM ET at Madison Square Garden
Key Angle
Ohio State has shown repeatedly that it cannot keep pace with top-level competition away from home — this game takes place at a neutral site.
So far, the Buckeyes have faced three teams that Kenpom ranks in the top 20. They lost:
- By 14 to Texas A&M.
- By 24 to Maryland.
- By 38 to Auburn.
This trend is relevant because Kentucky ranks twelfth in Kenpom.
Ohio State Lacks Depth
In each of these losses, they were able to utilize starting guard Meechie Johnson. Against Kentucky, they might not even have Johnson.
Johnson took a leave of absence from his team to take care of personal matters. He did not play in his team’s last game, and it is unclear if he will play against Kentucky. Johnson is a combo guard, meaning he can occupy both the point and shooting guard positions.
The Buckeyes have just one natural point guard on their roster. They also lack depth in the front court, where Aaron Bradshaw, one of their rare well-sized players, has been absent for their last seven games. Bradshaw was a highly-ranked recruit who has started in every game that he played for Ohio State this season. He is reportedly not game-ready yet.
Kentucky’s Big Men
When Auburn blew out the Buckeyes, it used its well-sized players to dominate inside. Kentucky, which ranks 25th in two-point percentage and 15th in height, can do the same. Andrew Carr, Amari Williams and Brandon Garrison are all 6-10 or 6-11 guys who can score over ten points for Kentucky.
Ohio State lacks the size and talent inside to contain Kentucky’s big men, especially without fouling them. These well-sized inside scorers will complement the efficient shooting of their smaller teammates, including Lamont Butler with his 48.1-percent three-point conversion rate and Koby Brea with his 53.1-percent three-point conversion rate.
Butler, for example, will also help his big men with his distribution — he ranks 97th in assist rate — and his ability to use his disposition to drive to the basket to facilitate their offensive rebounding prowess, which you can see him do with just under nine minutes left in his game against Duke. He regularly makes a lot happen on offense by drawing multiple defenders to him as he attacks the basket.
Kentucky’s Perimeter Defense
As typically evident in its best games, Ohio State is at its best on offense when it thrives from deep. The Buckeyes, though, will struggle against Kentucky’s effective perimeter defense.
Kentucky beat a superior Duke team, that likes to shoot a lot of threes, by five because of its high-quality perimeter defense. The Wildcats like to switch on ball screens, which prevents opposing offenses from using screens to free up a shot for their ball-handler, and they are able to remain glued to potential shooters behind the arc.
Overall, they rank twelfth at limiting the opponent’s three-point percentage, complementing the strong shot-blocking of especially Amari Williams inside.
Takeaway
Ohio State might be even more short-handed than usual when it faces Kentucky. But I dislike the Buckeyes even with a fully healthy roster. They cannot compete with top-level competition.
Kentucky’s front court and guard play will overwhelm Ohio State’s defense, while the Wildcats with their strong perimeter defense and shot-blocking will shut down the Buckeyes’ offense.
NCAAB Pick: Kentucky -7.5 (-115) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
