NCAA Basketball Best Bets for December 5: Purdue-Penn State Top Thursday Card
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Willie Bee
- December 5, 2024
Top NCAAB Pick: Purdue +2 (-104) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
It’s back to the drawing board for AP voters after three of the top five teams went down in defeat Wednesday evening. Thursday can’t be as bloody with only one ranked squad in action, but the slate still features quality matchups with interconference challenges and early conference battles.
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions Odds
Thursday, December 05, 2024 – 06:30 PM ET at Bryce Jordan Center
A half-dozen collisions have already taken place in the Big Ten’s early tease into its schedule, and both Purdue and Penn State would love to open their conference runs with a victory in Thursday’s marquee matchup.
Bookmaker sees the Nittany Lions as ever so slight favorites as 2-point chalk in front of their home crowd, with a 149.5-point total that favors the ‘under.’
Nittany Lions on 3-Game ‘Under’ Run
Purdue spent the Thanksgiving holiday in love in San Diego, and returned to West Lafayette with the hardware as Rady Children’s Invitational champion. The Boilermakers took out NC State and Ole Miss to claim the prize, the win over the Rebels going down to the final tick on the clock.
Penn State dropped its first game of the season to Clemson in the Sunshine Slam Championship just before Turkey Day, but bounced back with a 23-point win over Buffalo this past Saturday in a game the Nittany Lions never trailed.
Boilermakers Dominate Rivalry
Behind Zach Edey’s 30 points and 20 boards, Purdue coasted to a 95-78 win over Penn State in their meeting about 11 months ago. It was the eighth consecutive win in the rivalry for the Boilermakers, who have a commanding 47-13 advantage in the 60 previous matchups.
Though Purdue has dominated the rivalry overall and in recent years, the covers have been split in the last eight matchups. Still, I’m happy to take the Boilers plus a bucket.
NCAAB Pick: Purdue +2 (-104) at Bookmaker
Drake Bulldogs vs. Valparaiso Beacons Odds
Thursday, December 05, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Athletics-Recreation Center
Coming off a 2nd-straight Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Championship, the Drake Bulldogs were expected to take a step back towards the middle of the league.
But after a 7-0 start to the season, including wins over two Power 4 schools, Drake is climbing the NCAA futures odds and closing in on conference favorite Bradley, and will face its first MVC test on the road at Valparaiso.
Bulldogs 0-2 ATS as Double-Digit Chalk
Drake didn’t just pull off upsets over Miami and Vanderbilt at the Charleston Classic, the Bulldogs took them down by 11 points each, and sandwiched another underdog win over Florida Atlantic between those two games.
Valparaiso made a quick trip to Chicago last week and played like a team hungover from eating too much turkey and stuffing in an 89-70 loss to DePaul. The Beacons dug an early hole and never could make up for it as 15-point underdogs on the NCAAB odds.
‘Over’ Cashes Last 3 Meetings
The Bulldogs swept the season series a year ago to give them 6-straight wins in the rivalry, and a 12-8 advantage all-time. Drake covered the game at Valparaiso to stop a string of 8-straight spread wins by the Beacons.
Just can’t quite pull the trigger on Drake as 10.5-point chalk, and instead rely on Valparaiso’s leaky defense to assist in an ‘over’ winner.
NCAAB Pick: Drake/Valparaiso Over 137.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Xavier Musketeers vs. TCU Horned Frogs Odds
Thursday, December 05, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Schollmaier Arena
Jamie Dixon and TCU own a 16-game home win streak against non-conference opponents, but it won’t be easy for the Horned Frogs to extend that to 17 with a visit from the Xavier Musketeers. Top-rated sportsbooks opened the game as a pick before TCU moved to 1-point chalk.
Frogs Look to Snap 2-Game Skid
Xavier slid out of the AP poll following a lopsided loss to Michigan at the Ft. Myers Tip-Off just before Thanksgiving. The Musketeers then received quite a scare at home from South Carolina State in a 71-68 final as whopping 26-point chalk.
It was not an enjoyable trip to Palm Springs last week for the Horned Frogs, who dropped both games in the Acrisure Invitational. They were favored by 4.5 against Santa Clara, but went cold midway through the second half to fall by 17.
Texas Christian was then giving up 5 to Colorado State and suffered a 76-72 loss in overtime despite having a huge scoring advantage over the Rams at the free-throw line.
X-Men 1-7 O/U on the Year
You can’t expect Xavier to be too impressed with the Horned Frogs’ non-con home winning streak. After all, the Musketeers were getting 3 points the last time they came to Ft. Worth just before Christmas 2019, and they left with a 67-59 triumph.
Neither side has been a good bet against the spread, so let’s lean on early totals trends with our college basketball pick on the ‘under.’
NCAAB Pick: Xavier/TCU Under 144.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
