NCAA Basketball Best Bets for February 1: Santa Clara Is Ready to Explode
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Rainman M.
- February 1, 2025
Top NCAAB Pick: Santa Clara -16.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NCAAB odds for today’s games. Three games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Clemson vs. NC State, Wisconsin vs. Northwestern and Pacific vs. Santa Clara
For your best bets, I will recommend investing in the Clemson-NC State “under,” Wisconsin, and Santa Clara.
Clemson Tigers vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack
Saturday, February 01, 2025 – 01:30 PM ET at Lenovo Center
NC State’s Rim-Attacking Offense
On offense, the Wolfpack are averse to shooting threes. They do a terrible job of making them and are disinclined to attempt them. Instead of attempting threes, they primarily want to attack the basket.
Their top shot-taker, Marcus Hill, typifies this team-wide inclination. Hill is NC State’s shooting guard who relies primarily on driving to the basket. With the likes of Hill, NC State attempts the 34th-highest rate of shots at the rim.
Clemson’s Rim Protection
I like Clemson to lock down NC State’s offense because the Tigers boast strong rim protection.
Their key defender is center Viktor Lakhin, who ranks 39th in block rate. He provides great energy on defense primarily by stopping opposing players from scoring at the basket.
His teammates are able to guard more aggressively along the perimeter because they know that Lakhin will clean up their mess if they allow the opposing ball-handler to drive by them. Led by Lakhin, Clemson allows the eleventh-lowest field goal percentage against shot attempts at the rim.
NC State’s Perimeter Defense
For NC State to keep this game low-scoring, its perimeter defense will be key because Clemson relies heavily on making threes, as evident in its very high point distribution from behind the arc.
The Wolfpack just played a Duke team that loves to shoot threes and is great at making them. They held Duke to a 4-of-20 output from behind the arc.
NC State regularly guards the perimeter closely in order to run opponents off the three-point line. They are focused on preventing opposing players from having favorable three-point shooting opportunities. Hence, they allow a uniquely low rate of three-point attempts.
Clemson has just the sort of offense that will suffer from such a focus from the defense.
Takeaway
Both offenses will struggle because they face a defense dedicated to stopping them from scoring in the way that they prefer.
Clemson’s rim protection and NC State’s perimeter defense will secure a low-scoring affair.
NCAAB Pick: Clemson/North Carolina State Under 133 (-115) at BetOnline
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Northwestern Wildcats
Saturday, February 01, 2025 – 02:00 PM ET at Welsh-Ryan Arena
Northwestern’s Key Scorers
It is critical for the outcome of this game to note that Northwestern’s offense hinges on the success of its wings.
The Wildcats depend primarily on their wings for points. Nick Martinelli and Brooks Barnhizer, both wings, are easily their top two shot-takers.
Wisconsin’s Strength on Defense
I like Wisconsin’s defense in this matchup because its best defenders are perimeter defenders.
With those perimeter defenders, they excel at locking down opposing wings. For example, the Badgers beat Rutgers, whom they held to 63 points, largely because they shut down Rutgers’ top scorer.
Ace Bailey, a wing, scored all of nine points. Against Wisconsin, he thus suffered his lowest scoring output and his lowest offensive rating of the season.
Arizona’s Caleb Love, who scored six points against Wisconsin, and other talented wings routinely suffer when they face the Badgers.
Wisconsin’s Offense
It’s a modest ask to expect a Wisconsin team that will hold Northwestern to a low point total to score enough points to cover the spread.
The Badgers have one of the nation’s best offenses with a great mixture of inside scorers and three-point shooters. Unlike Maryland at the time when it lost at Northwestern and Indiana who also lost at Northwestern, Wisconsin understands how to remain productive on offense in road games.
Northwestern struggles heavily against wings, as when Bailey dropped 37 points against it, and Wisconsin’s offense boasts plenty of good ones. Wings John Blackwell and John Tonje are Wisconsin’s leading scorers who will spearhead their offense today.
Takeaway
Wisconsin will shut down a Northwestern offense that relies heavily on its wings for points. The Badgers have great perimeter defenders for the task.
The Badgers also rely heavily on wings for their point production, but Northwestern is regularly terrible at guarding them.
NCAAB Pick: Wisconsin -2 (-118) at BetOnline
Pacific Tigers vs. Santa Clara Broncos
Saturday, February 01, 2025 – 07:00 PM ET at Leavey Center
Santa Clara’s “Get Right” Spot
Santa Clara is in a great spot tonight. Coming off two straight losses, both against tough teams, they get to face a soft test in the form of Pacific.
After being shut down by the characteristically stingy and well-disciplined defense of Saint Mary’s, the Broncos are ready to explode tonight. They’ve been held to below 60 points in two other games this season:
- After losing to Nevada 85-59, the Broncos exploded for 96 points in a 42-point win against UC Riverside.
- Likewise, the Broncos amassed 103 points in their win at 15.5-point favorite Gonzaga after losing 57-54 to Loyola Marymount.
Expect a Shooting Barrage
Santa Clara is capable of scoring so many points largely because it is well-stacked with efficient shooters.
Five different players for them convert over 35 percent of their three-point attempts. They complement the inside attack led by seven-footer Christoph Tilly, whose offensive arsenal features effective off-ball movement, off-the-dribble productivity and low-post scoring.
A Pacific defense that is one of the worst at limiting opposing three-point efficiency and that lacks strength and shot-blocking talent inside will be completely overrun. On offense, the Tigers won’t participate in this shooting barrage. They display themselves as one of the worst three-point shooting teams — if they even manage to avoid turning the ball over.
Takeaway
There has to be a good situational reason to invest in such a heavy favorite.
Coming off two losses, the last one being at home, and the last loss foregrounding such disappointing productivity on offense, Santa Clara is in a big spot. History shows it is ready to explode.
Pacific, with its egregious porousness on defense, will be overrun by Santa Clara’s offense, while it lacks the shooting ability to stay within 20 points of the high-scoring Broncos.
NCAAB Pick: Santa Clara -16.5 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
