NCAA Basketball Best Bets for February 15: Texas Will Save Its Season
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Rainman M.
- February 15, 2025
Top NCAAB Pick: Texas -3 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NCAAB odds for today’s college basketball action. Three games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Stanford vs. Duke, Villanova vs. Providence, and Kentucky vs. Texas.
For your best bets, I will recommend investing in Stanford, Villanova-Providence “over,” and Texas.
Stanford Cardinal vs. Duke Blue Devils
Saturday, February 15, 2025 – 04:00 PM ET at Cameron Indoor Stadium
Maxime Raynaud’s Importance
It is not a coincidence that Maxime Raynaud suffered his worst offensive performance, as measured by offensive rating, in the same game where his team, Stanford, suffered its lowest point total in any game this season.
Stanford’s center is a huge driver of the team’s offense. By a large margin, he is his team’s top shot-taker.
With the Cardinal dogged so greatly in this game, a strong performance from Raynaud alone would already contribute greatly to the likelihood of the Cardinal covering the spread.
Key Matchup Edge
Raynaud struggled in his last game because he was guarded by Georgia Tech’s Baye Ndongo. Ndongo, at 6-9 and 240 pounds, is known for his versatility. He is mobile, quick-footed, and he comfortably operates along the perimeter.
However, Raynaud’s counterpart today, Khaman Maluach, is a completely different player. At 7-2, 250 pounds, he is known for his power and strength. Maluach will thrive on defense against a player who tries to overpower him. But overpowering opponents is not primarily what Raynaud does. Raynaud will shoot threes and put the ball on the floor to drive and shoot.
Raynaud’s technical competence as a scorer will also enable him to succeed in the low post against a much less polished freshman Maluach who, as a shot-blocker, struggles with timing and coordination, as evident in his game against Clemson when he jumped at completely the wrong time to try to deter a shot-taker.
As Raynaud did with 17:40 left in the first half against Wake Forest, Raynaud will also operate from the perimeter to make passes to the basket that won’t be protected by Maluach because Raynaud will have drawn him away from it.
Raynaud had six assists in that Wake Forest game, mirroring what Clemson’s center accomplished against Duke’s interior defense, which vacated significant space around the basket to account for Clemson’s center along the perimeter.
Jaylen Blakes
One more Stanford player stepping up offensively will give the rest of the team little to do to put the Cardinal’s offensive output in the 70s.
That Stanford player must be none other than a three-year Duke player. Jaylen Blakes transferred from Duke to Stanford, where he now regularly scores at least 12 points and where he averages five assists per game. Blakes is a three-level scorer who will be extra motivated to prove his worth to his old team because Duke did not give him many minutes.
Stanford’s Defense
On defense, the Cardinal will contain a Duke offense that relies heavily on threes.
Cardinal defenders breathe down the neck of opposing ball-handlers behind the arc, sometimes to the extent that screens are ineffective. Their dedication to guarding the perimeter limits the potential for opposing players to work the ball inside for the purpose of passing it to a teammate behind the arc.
Overall, Stanford allows three-point attempts at the third-lowest rate among all ACC teams. They will force Duke to rely on scoring inside much more than it wants to against the great length and skill of Stanford’s power forward-center combo.
Cardinal wings also match up well against Duke’s tall wings, who won’t be able to shoot over the top of them. Overall, Stanford is the 19th-tallest team. Its height and length reinforce its ability to contest three-point attempts and promote the stinginess of its interior defense.
The Cardinal have, as measured by defensive rating, one of the ACC’s better defenses.
Takeaway
Two strong individual performances on offense, at the very least, plus stout perimeter defense and length in the interior will contribute to a strong Stanford showing.
With mid-range scoring talent in the likes of Blakes and Raynaud’s multi-faceted prowess on offense, Stanford can do a lot of what Clemson did when it shredded Duke’s interior. The Cardinal defense also has a strong matchup outlook with its focus on defending the perimeter and its length.
NCAAB Pick: Stanford +19 (-115) at BetOnline
Villanova Wildcats vs. Providence Friars
Saturday, February 15, 2025 – 06:00 PM ET at Amica Mutual Pavilion
Eric Dixon
Villanova’s offense is led by power forward/center Eric Dixon. He is a strong 265-pounder who flexes three-level scoring ability. Dixon is even shooting 43.3 percent from deep on high volume this year. He is otherwise strong and mobile.
Providence simply doesn’t have anyone who can guard him. The Friars lack someone with the combo of strength and mobility that can stick with him.
Hence, he scored 23 points when these teams first met. If Providence stops him, it will be a consequence of devoting multiple defenders to the task, in which case Dixon’s teammates will have an even easier time thriving.
Villanova’s Three-Point Shooting
Villanova scored 75 points when these two teams played even though the Wildcats had an unusually bad day from behind the arc. Three-point shooting is normally their bread and butter: they are the nation’s second-most efficient team from deep.
Their outlook is great against a Providence defense that allowed at least 80 points in each of its last three games, getting torched from deep in its last two ones against Xavier and Butler teams that lack Villanova’s efficiency. Villanova will use stronger shooting to fly past the 75-point output that it attained in the first meeting between these teams.
Providence’s Shooting
Still, the Friars will likewise soar past the 73-point output that they reached in the first meeting.
Providence has struggled to shoot, at times, against defenses that can take it out of its rhythm. The Friars have a low-quality point guard who is susceptible to the pressure of defenses like Seton Hall’s and that of St. John’s. But Villanova doesn’t apply much ball pressure, as evident in its negligible turnover rate.
Providence will have an easy time initiating offense. Its three-point efficiency is third-best in the Big East and will be a big reason why it reaches 80 points against Villanova’s defense that allows three-point attempts at one of the nation’s highest rates.
In the first meeting, the Friars started really slowly but figured things out. Building off the progress they made will enable them to score enough to help the game go “over” with ease.
Takeover
Villanova will shoot better from deep against a vulnerable Providence defense. However, the Friars will use three-point shooting to keep pace against Villanova’s low-pressure defense.
NCAAB Pick: Villanova/Providence Over 141.5 (-105) at BetOnline
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Texas Longhorns
Saturday, February 15, 2025 – 08:00 PM ET at Moody Center
Kentucky’s Let-Down Spot
Kentucky can be counted on to struggle in the game following a huge success. After beating Florida, it lost by 13 at Georgia. Likewise, it followed a win over Tennessee with a ten-point home loss against Arkansas.
Kentucky is worth fading today after it just beat Tennessee.
Texas’ Capability
Texas has the talent to win. The Longhorns beat Missouri and Texas A&M, for example. Both teams rank ahead of Kentucky in the SEC standings.
Recently, the Longhorns have looked sluggish, as in their first half against Arkansas. But on Saturday night and feeling desperate to end a three-game losing streak, they will give their best performance.
This is a great buy-low spot for a talented team primed to reverse its demise.
NCAAB Pick: Texas -3 (-115) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler
